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Advanced Concepts Group War on Terrorism Activities http://www.sandia.gov/capabilitites/acg/index.html. Presentation to DHS TV/TA Committee Nancy K. Hayden April 23, 2004 SAND2004-2130W Unclassified Unlimited Release.

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slide1

Advanced Concepts GroupWar onTerrorism Activitieshttp://www.sandia.gov/capabilitites/acg/index.html

Presentation to DHS TV/TA Committee

Nancy K. Hayden

April 23, 2004

SAND2004-2130W

Unclassified Unlimited Release

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

terrorism it s about people

Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations

Terrorism: It’s About People
  • Poor economic conditions and low human Capital Development in Arab world will continue
  • Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate, superstition, conspiracy…will continue to expound victimization narratives
  • Role of US/Israel as crusaders against backdrop of changing balance of powers (EU, Asia,..)
  • Fundamental religious movements will continue to foster rebellion against modernism
terrorism is a complex problem

Reality

Terrorism is a Complex Problem

The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it

Knowledge Network

scenario

driven

hypothesis

Logistics/

Infrastructure

Multidimensional

Games

Red, Blue, Green

White, Purple

MOADB

Social/

psychological

Simulation

indications

& warnings

enhanced

collection

smart decision making individuals

and groups

increase

hope

warn first

responders

manipulate - deceive -

control - dissuade -

deter - destroy

mitigate

complexity science yields new analysis paradigms
Complexity Science Yields New Analysis Paradigms

Santa Fe Institute

Workshop April 10-11, 2003

How Complex Adaptive

Systems Dynamics

are Related to

Understanding and

Modeling Terrorist Behavior

Sandia, Argonne, LANL,

CIA, DTRA, MITRE, Navy

Cornell, U of Penn, Intel,

CMU, Icosystems, USAF,

Galisteo, Humana, Alidade,

U of Maryland, MIIS, Brookings

Intrinsic network features

transcend domains

systems thinking frame the problem
Systems Thinking: Frame the Problem

System Complexity

Modeling approaches

depend on what problem

is being addressed

Explore

Interpret

Suggest

Infer

Describe

Predict

Timeframe

Analysis Function

the advanced concepts group
The Advanced Concepts Group
  • Dotology
    • The application of red gaming and computer reasoning tools to the generation of terrorism hypotheses
  • Knownet
    • The creation of a virtual community of terrorism experts to share and create knowledge
  • Seldon
    • The development of computational sociopsychological models to better understand the complex behaviors of terrorist organizations.
  • Mentor/Pal
    • The study of novel human-machine systems using physiological monitors to enable superior group performance
  • SDAC
    • Sense/decide/act/communicate devices that create inexpensive, self organizing systems for detection and reaction
slide7

Accomplishments and Current Work

The Science of Connecting the Dots

  • IWFO project with KDD (part of ITIC)
  • Red Game held in July 2003
  • LDRD to develop data structures for data warehouse
  • White paper on Red Teaming for Homeland Security
  • White paper on a National Counter Terrorism Univ.

Problem and Approach

The Future of This Concept

Improve our nation’s ability to "connect the dots" to allow interdiction prior to an terrorist event.

Creation of a national “red gaming” capability to generate and collect hypothetical scenarios and the creation of a data warehouse that would store these scenarios and fragments, in a computer manipulatible format at the level of “observable” events.

Design of a tool, the “Hypothesizer”, calling on the data warehouse to expand the view of analysts for what might be unfolding and to eliminate spurious “dots” inconsistent with reasonable scenarios.

  • Partners:
  • KDD program within ITIC
  • LDRD team in 5500 and 5900
  • This year:
  • Hold another game or two in ’04
  • LDRD to build prototype Hypothesizer
  • Transition concept to intel community with support from 5500 and 5900.
  • Dotology team: Rick Craft, Judy Moore, John Whitley
a recurrent need
The need to “know” the

terrorist has emerged

repeatedly in the

concepts that the

ACG has explored

Targets

&

Harden

Critical

Resources

Resources

Enable

Dynamic

Mitigation

Control

Dangerous

Things

Public & Private

Know

Ourselves,

the Threat,

& the Current

Situation

Strengthen

Emergency

Response

Control

Bad

Actors

Responders

Support

Apprehension

& Prosecution

Terr

o

rists

A Recurrent Need
slide9

Accomplishments

  • SFI workshop explored terrorism as complex system behavior with experts
  • KnowNet white paper explains ACG concept
  • KnowFest started building a functioning community of very diverse experts (Mini-Net)
  • KnowNet Pilot
  • Current Work
  • Nurture Mini-Net collaborations
  • Community white paper on Know Net

Problem

The nation needs to develop deep and comprehensive knowledge of terrorism and make this knowledge accessible where it is needed, when it is needed, and in the form needed.

Approach

Create a (inter-)national network that provides insight on short and long-term terrorist-related issues using experts who are fed with high-grade source information and supported by an infrastructure that enables communication, analysis, and collaboration.

The Future

  • Pursue DHS Interest in S&T (Gary Strong)
  • Collaborate with DTRA/DHS to develop KnowNet implementation options
  • LDRD for Rapid Knowledge Generation to support other SNL/DHS terrorism work
  • Transition KnowNet program to SNL line organizations
  • Team Members : Nancy Hayden , Rick Craft
  • External Partners: St. Andrews, GWU, MIIS, MITRE, Tel Aviv University, U of Penn, U of Michigan, IDSS, RAND
knownet toolbox
Knownet Toolbox
  • Provide COTS/USG information visualization and analysis tools
    • VxInsight: landscape views
    • Starlight suite : network and context analyses
    • ClearForest: concept and link analyses
    • Attensity : syntactic and semantic freeform text analysis, discivers entities and relationships
  • Incorporate Rapid Knowledge Generation middleware
  • Access to scenarios and behavior simulation models
slide11

Network models

3d models

Scenarios

Visualizations

VxInsight

seldon computational simulation of social tipping points
SELDON - Computational Simulation of Social Tipping Points

Accomplishments and Current Work

  • Prototype agent-based model of recruitment within multiple social networks.
  • Preliminary results confirm strong role of social networks
  • Gang-terrorist analogy paper

Problem and Approach

The Future of This Concept

Problem: improve our understanding of the factors and processes that lead to the emergence and persistence of terrorists

Research question: how do we intervene in the recruitment pipeline so groups do not achieve size and structure necessary to support violent behavior?

Approach: develop a computational psycho-social model that allows us to play ‘what if’ games with interventions in the recruitment pipeline to identify those which will preclude the development of a group structure that will lead to violence

  • Partners: Nina Berry (8964), Teresa Ko (8964), Ann Speed (12335), and Professor Kathleen Carley (Carnegie Melon University)
  • Team: Tim Moy, Julienne Smrcka, Jessica Turnley, and Ben Wu (POC)
  • Future Path:
    • Model middle east terrorists
    • Develop transition plan to line organization.
threat awareness and response

Relevant

Information

Today’s

Response

Curve

System

Overload

Desired

Response

Curve

Response

Threshold

Time

Event

Delayed

Detection

Threat Awareness and Response
mentor pal team
Mentor/Pal Team

Accomplishments and Current Work

  • Prototype system for novel group observations
    • Live Demo
  • Technology Roadmap to 2015
  • System Architecture
  • Quickplace collaborative website
  • Lockheed Martin Skunk Works symposium
  • Human Studies Board approval
  • NASA Human Performance 2003 talk (Oct.)

Accelerometry, GSR, Pulse oximetry

EMG, EKG, Respiration, Voice

Face video, keystroke, Mouse x, y, click

Voice recognition, EEG

Problem and Approach

The Future of This Concept

Need: Improve the performance of people in situations with

  • High cognitive loads and high consequence decisions
  • High stress and time-critical operations
  • Unpredictable, ambiguous, non-recurring environments
  • Challenges for realistic training
  • Multiple people and machines

Examples: security operations centers, long-duration duty crews, team training simulators, crisis operations teams

Approach: Observe humans in collaborations under stress

What are signatures of high-performing collaborations?

Goal: novel systems coach teams to high performance

  • Prof. Akaysha Tang, UNM: State of the art EEG and MEG laboratory, FY04 collaboration planned
  • Dave Warner, MD, Ph.D.,MindTel LLC: Mobile Op Center wireless application FY04 (potential)
  • Cal Tech student fellowships: Center for Neuromorphic Engineering (potential)
  • Dialogue with SNL line organizations
  • Interest from potential IC and DoD sponsors.
  • Project Manager: Merkle
  • ACG Team: Johnson, Jones, Craft
  • LDRD PI: Adele Doser (15311)
s ense d ecide a ct c ommunicate project team
SenseDecideActCommunicate Project Team

Accomplishments and Current Work

  • Raised awareness within Sandia re/ networked SDAC concepts; Influenced FY03-04 LDRDs
  • Helped launch (and contributing to) Talon LDRD Project, internal SDAC-related strategic vision and road-mapping, and Talon Initiative
  • Sponsoring SDAC LDRD Architectural Tradeoff Study and Demo System Development Project
  • Facilitating high-level national workshop Oct’03

Problem and Approach

The Future of This Concept

  • Partners: Key Sandia Staff and Line Orgs collaborating on Talon Project, Talon Initiative, and related sensor, comms, networking, and information processing & fusion technologies;
  • Institute for Defense Analysis (Joint Urban Ops)
  • Transition plans: Influence LDRD Investments; Implementation of major funded program under Talon Initiative; Influence on, and contribution to, accelerating efforts at national level
  • SDAC Team: Ron Pate and Regan Stinnett
  • Improved ISR and Precision Situational Awareness at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels are needed for the War on Terrorism
  • Networked Sense/Decide/Act/Communicate (SDAC) “systems of systems” can provide the Virtual Presence capabilities needed for precision awareness and response in military, intelligence, and homeland security applications
long term solutions

Undecided

Undecided

Lover supporters

Lover supporters

Hater supporters

Hater supporters

Lovers

Lovers

Haters

Haters

Long Term Solutions…

Goal: understand the society and shift the distribution in our favor

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