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US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Mark V. Lomanno President SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2008 5.1% 4.0% 4.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% - 4.8%

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Us lodging industry overview l.jpg
US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Mark V. LomannoPresidentSMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH


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Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2008

5.1%

4.0%

4.2%

1.6%

1.1%

0.6%

- 4.8%


Total united states occupancy adr percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to march 2008 l.jpg
Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2008

7.6%

6.8%

5.5%

-0.6%


Total united states room rate percent change jan 2003 march 2008 l.jpg
Total United StatesRoom Rate Percent ChangeJan 2003 – March 2008


Total united states revpar percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to march 2008 l.jpg
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to March 2008

June 06 + 9.3%

Feb 01 + 6.5%

+4.9%


Total united states quarterly revpar percent change l.jpg
Total United StatesQuarterly RevPar Percent Change


U s industry weekday weekend occupancy change november 2007 february 2008 l.jpg
U.S. IndustryWeekday/Weekend Occupancy ChangeNovember 2007 – February 2008

Weekdays = Sunday - Thursday


Total u s occupancy and adr percent change ytd through 4 19 l.jpg
Total U.S.Occupancy and ADR Percent ChangeYTD through 4/19


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Pennsylvania - Key StatisticsDecember 2007 YTD

% Change

  • Hotels 1,368 1.5%

  • Room Supply 128k 1.7%

  • Room Demand 79k 2.7%

  • Occupancy 62.1% 1.0%

  • A.D.R. $100.46 6.1%

  • RevPAR $62.39 7.1%

  • Room Revenue $2.9B 9.0%


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Pennsylvania - Key StatisticsQ1 2008

% Change

  • Daily Room Supply 129.3k 2.1%

  • Daily Room Demand 66.6k 0.0%

  • Occupancy 51.5% - 2.0%

  • A.D.R. $97.79 4.7%

  • RevPAR $50.38 2.5%

  • Room Revenue $586mm 4.7%


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PennsylvaniaKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeYTD March


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Occupancy Percent Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008

43.9%

49.3%

51.5%

52.6%

52.6%

59.2%

39.4%


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Occupancy Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008

-0.3%

0.4%

-0.3%

-0.5%

1.5%

-6.2%

4.9%


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ADR ($) Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008

$73.74

$98.42

$81.83

$81.23

$95.27

$119.54

$76.91


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ADR Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008

5.9%

-3.1%

6.0%

4.7%

3.4%

7.1%

5.7%


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RevPAR Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008

5.6%

-2.7%

5.7%

4.1%

4.9%

0.5%

10.8%



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STR Chain ScalesSelected chains from each segment

  • Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont

  • Upper Upscale – Embassy, Hilton, Marriott, Sheraton

  • Upscale – Residence Inn, Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard

  • Mid with F&B – Quality Inn, Holiday Inn, Ramada

  • Mid no F&B – Comfort Inn, Hampton Inn, HI Express

  • Economy – Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn


Str u s chain scales ltm february 2008 room revenue share l.jpg
STR - U.S. Chain ScalesLTM February 2008 Room Revenue Share

Total Room Revenue = $108 Billion


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Selected Chain Scales12 Month Moving Average - Demand Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001

Then: Visible Drop in Demand in UU Scale – “Top-Down Recession”


Selected chain scales 12 month moving average adr index jan 2000 100 january 2000 august 2001 l.jpg
Selected Chain Scales12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001

Then: Visible Drop in ADR in Higher End Scales


Selected chain scales 12 month moving average demand index jan 2006 100 january 2006 february 2008 l.jpg
Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average Demand Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008

Now: No Slowing In Demand For Upper End – “Bottom Up Recession?”


Selected chain scales 12 month moving average adr index jan 2006 100 january 2006 february 2008 l.jpg
Selected Chain Scales12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008

Now: No Slowing in Rate Growth



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Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets12 Month Moving Average Demand Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001

Then: Visible Drop in Demand in Top 25 Markets


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Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001

Then: Visible Drop in ADR in Top 25 Markets


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Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month Moving Average - Demand Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008

Now: Demand for Top 25 Markets basically Flat


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Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008

Now: ADR Currently Strong Across The Board


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Exchange Rate Impact on 2007 ADR % Change

America Is On Sale!



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Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Prior Year

Feb 2008 Feb 2007 Change % Chg

In Construction 198,244 171,413 26,831 15.7%

Active Pipeline 648,882 541,723 107,159 19.8%

Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline


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Average Lengths Under Construction (Months)For Hotels Opening That Year

Slight Increase in Construction Time Over Last 2 Years

Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline


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Total United StatesAnnual Rooms Closed and 3 Year Moving Average1990 – 2007



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U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators – April 2008

20072008F2009F

Real GDP +2.2% +1.4% +2.2%

CPI +2.9% +3.5% +2.4%

Corporate Profits +2.7% -2.7% +5.2%

Disp Personal Income +3.1% +2.1% +2.1%

Unemployment Rate 4.6% 5.3% 5.6%


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Total U.S.Supply/Demand Percent Change2002 – 2008P


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Total U.S.Occupancy Percent Change2002 – 2008P

20 Year Average: -0.1%


Total us occupancy percent 2002 2008p l.jpg
Total USOccupancy Percent2002 – 2008P


Total u s adr percent change 2002 2008p l.jpg
Total U.S.ADR Percent Change2002 – 2008P

20 Year Average: 3.5%


Total u s revpar percent change 2002 2008p l.jpg
Total U.S.RevPAR Percent Change2002 – 2008P

20 Year Average: 3.4%


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2008 Lodging Industry Takeaways

  • Accelerating Supply Growth – Pipeline Attrition?

  • Slowing Economy = Slower Demand Growth

  • Top Markets may outperform

  • Weak Dollar = U.S. Bargain

  • Leisure feels greater impact than business?

  • Revenue Management Discipline?


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