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The Changing Arctic Climate as Observed from Space. Josefino C. Comiso NASA Goddard Space Flight Center [email protected] IPY Presentation for Informal Educators GSFC Web, 16 October 2008. Scientific Motivations.

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The changing arctic climate as observed from space

The Changing Arctic Climate as Observed from Space

Josefino C. Comiso

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

[email protected]

IPY Presentation for Informal Educators

GSFC Web, 16 October 2008


Scientific motivations
Scientific Motivations

  • The Earth is warming and impacts of anthropogenic activities is becoming more apparent

  • Satellite data is needed to get a global perspective of the problem

  • Early signals of a Climate change may come from the polar regions because of feedback effects. The Arctic is already showing such signals.

  • Impacts on the quality of human lives, on the economy and the infracstructure are huge.

  • It may not be too late. Mitigation strategies must be considered seriously.


Anthropogenic co2
Anthropogenic CO2

AES Drax in Yorkshire pumps smoke out of the tallest chimneys in the country. The coal-fired power plant emits more CO2 – 22.8 million tonnes annually – than the 100 least-industrialised nations combined. Drax provides 7% of Britain’s electrical power. Burning fossil fuels to turn steam turbines and create electricity accounts for a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, and coal has the highest carbon content of all fuels



Antarctic Core Record for the Last 400,000 Years of Green- house Gases and Temperature + In Situ Data Since 1880

Natural climate variability is associated with Earth’s orbital parameters and solar effects. CO2, CH4 and estimated global temperature

0 = 1880-1899 mean



  • Surface temperature Years

  • trends from

  • meteorological

  • stations around

  • the world

  • Rapid rise from 1910 to 1942

  • Moderate cooling from 1942

  • to 1975

  • Rapid rise from 1975 to the

  • present (satellite era)

  • Global cooling during volcanic

  • erruptions

Sputnik

Launch


Trends in the arctic surface temperature 1981 to 2007
Trends in the Arctic Surface Temperature (1981 to 2007) Years

Trends in Ts >66.5°N = 0.64°C/dec

Trends over Sea ice = 0.35°C/dec

Trends over Greenland = 0.76°C/dec

Trends over Eurasia = 0.23°C/dec

Trends over North Am = 0.69°C/dec

>60°N for both Eurasia and North Am

Russia

Alaska

Canada

Greenland



Polar amplification feedbacks
Polar Amplification- Feedbacks Years

  • Ice-Albedo Feedback –relevant to retreating perennial ice cover and also over land

  • Cloud feedback – positive or negative, depending on the height of clouds

  • Other feedbacks are mainly positive


Yearly arctic ice cover during maximum extents 1979 2007
Yearly Arctic Ice Cover during Maximum Extents Years1979-2007

Extent trend: -2.2%/decade

Areas trend: -2.5%/decade


Yearly arctic ice cover during minimum extents 1979 2003
Yearly Arctic Ice Cover during Minimum Extents Years1979-2003

Extent trend: -10.1%/decade

Area trend: -11.4%/decade

2007


The big sea ice anomaly in 2007
The Big Sea Ice Anomaly in 2007 Years

2007 ice minimum area was 27% less than 2005 and 38% less than climatological average.

Ref: Comiso, J.C., C. Parkinson, R. Gersten and L. Stock, Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover,

Geophysical Research Letter (in press).


Temporal variations in the ice cover wind and surface temperature march to may
Temporal Variations in the ice cover, wind and surface temperature (March to May)

Data indicates significant

temperature and wind

effects. In August, there

was a cyclone in the region

that may have facilitated

anomaly.

Aug 07 Anom


Cold Weather Conditions in the Arctic in Winter temperature (March to May)

Surface temperature anomalies show cooling primarily in North America. Sea ice concentration anomalies indicate positive ice cover anomalies in the Bering Sea

and Davis Strait and the effect is illustrated

in the ice cover in mid winter (1 March 2008).

Ice Concentration

1 March 2008

Bering

Sea

Russia

Canada

Greenland

Davis

Strait


Total ice cover monthly anomalies
Total Ice Cover/Monthly Anomalies temperature (March to May)

From 1978 to 1996,

the trend in the ice

extent was -2.2% per

decade. Since 1996,

the trend has changed

to -10.1% per decade

suggesting a large acceleration in the

decline.

Acceleration in the

decline makes it

difficult for ice to

recover because

of ice albedo feedback.

-10.1%/dec

-10.7%/dec


Update to 2008 arctic sea ice
Update to 2008 Arctic Sea Ice temperature (March to May)

2008

2008

2008


Cluster Map temperature (March to May)

Multiyear ice Map

sub sonar

Wadhams


The wild card multi year ice from 1981 to 1998
The temperature (March to May)WildCard?MultiYear Ice from 1981 to 1998


Winter and summer my perennial ice cover
Winter and Summer MY/Perennial Ice Cover temperature (March to May)


Enhanced water temperatures in 2007
Enhanced water temperatures in 2007 temperature (March to May)

Anomaly maps based on AVHRR

data from 1981 to 2007 show significant

warming of Arctic SSTs in 2007


Ipy measurements
IPY measurements temperature (March to May)

Perovich and

the CRREL

Group


Summer ice melt

Summer ice melt temperature (March to May)

2007 Beaufort – huge increase in bottom melt



Permafrost in alaska
Permafrost in Alaska temperature (March to May)


Change in ndvi arctic region 1981 to 2006
Change in NDVI, Arctic Region temperature (March to May)1981 to 2006


Himalayan glaciers
Himalayan Glaciers temperature (March to May)


Horn and Waxeggkees temperature (March to May)Glaciers in the Austrian Tyrol30 % of area and 50 % of volume was lost from1921 to 1994

Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska – observed to be

Thinning by 0.5 to 1 m per year


Observed decline in glacier volume
Observed Decline in Glacier Volume temperature (March to May)


Area of melt increased dramatically in greenland during the last four years
Area of melt increased dramatically in Greenland during the last four years

Spring melt in Greenland in 2002


Estimates sea level equivalence
Estimates: Sea level equivalence last four years

  • Greenland ice sheet = 7 m

  • East Antarctic ice sheet = 65 m

  • West Antarctic ice sheet = 8 m

  • Antarctic Peninsula = 0.46 m

  • All other ice forms + glaciers = 0.45 m

  • Thermal expansion: the sea level goes up by 2 to 6 cm of every 1 K increase in Global Surface Temperature

  • Saline sea Ice = 0 m; Perennial sea ice = .02 m


Effect of sea level rise 2000 census
Effect of Sea Level Rise last four years(2000 census)



Summary
Summary last four years

  • Global warming is real. Met stations and satellite data show enhanced surface temperatures that are amplified in the polar regions.

  • Impacts of warming are now evident, the strongest being in the Arctic. Reductions in snow cover, glaciers, and increased melt in the permafrost and ice sheets are evident.

  • The perennial ice now declining at 11.4 % per decade shows the most remarkable change. The 2007 ice minimum area was 38% less than climatological average and 27% less than previous lowest area in 2005. The 2008 perennial ice area was almost as low as that of 2007.

  • The multiyear ice cover in winter is showing even more drastic declines at 14% per decade. Ice is thinning in part because of warmer ocean caused by ice albedo feedback.

  • Mitigation strategies are needed and needs to be implemented before it gets too late.


End of presentation
End of Presentation last four years


Some mitigation strategies
Some Mitigation Strategies last four years

  • Use of alternative energy sources: wind turbines, solar/photovoltaic cells, nuclear, geothermal, ocean, hybrid/hydrogen cars, gasohol/fuel crops, etc.

  • Truly international efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels

  • Construction of energy efficient buildings and public transportation systems

  • Conservation and greater public awareness of the consequences of global warming


The ozone hole success story a good model for solving global problems
The Ozone Hole Success Story: A good model for solving global Problems

  • Scientists provided clear warning

  • Special interest groups denied story for years but developed ozone-friendly technology

  • Media transmitted the message very well

  • Public was responsive and willing to help

  • US/European leadership was very effective

  • CFC-producing infrastructure quickly phased out


Stronger hurricanes
Stronger Hurricanes global Problems

Katrina

More than $100B damage. 320 Million trees , corresponding to a biomass of 0.09 to 0.11 petagrams

of carbon were transferred form live to dead pools.(7% of US fossil fuel emission each year)



Stresses on Coral Reefs 2002

Coral Reef off Fiji (Photo: Kevin Roland)



2007 is the second warmest year observed from meteorological stations
2007 is the second warmest year observed from meteorological stations

Ttrends in the Northern Hemisphere was considerably higher than that of the Southern Hemisphere.



Larson ice shelf rapid decline
Larson Ice Shelf Rapid Decline stations

March 17, 2002

January 31, 2002


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