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Konzepte zur Verbindung unterschiedlicher disziplinärer Ansätze in der Klimawirkungsforschung

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Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination) Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dr. Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination)

Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dr. Dörthe Krömker

Frank Eierdanz

Adelphi Research, Berlin

Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Dr. Richard KleinDr. Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik

Konzepte zur Verbindung unterschiedlicher disziplinärer Ansätze in der Klimawirkungsforschung

slide2

Crises event

Environmental Stress

High probabilityof crises

Low probability of crises

No crisesevent

Susceptibility

Gemeinsames Rahmenmodell

slide3

Ziele des Projektes

  • better understanding of extreme climate events and risks to society …
  • … improving the definitions of the three central concepts
      • crisis
      • environmental stress
      • susceptibility
  • Focus: Climate-related water shortages.
fallstudiengebiete
Fallstudiengebiete

Volgograd + Saratov

Russia

Algarve + Alentejo

Portugal

Andhra Pradesh

India

slide5

Anfälligkeit: …Schwerpunkt heute

Krise: Medienanalyse

Wasserstress: kombinierter neuer Index

slide6

Methode zur Abschätzung von Anfälligkeit

  • Developing inference models from 3 perspectives definition of concepts, selection of indicators
  • 2. Collecting data top-down and bottom-up from case study regions:
    • Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh
  • 3. Quantifying the models with fuzzy set theory
  • 4. Computing susceptibility from 3 perspectives …
    • environmental psychology, political science, economics
slide7

Economics

Konzeptioneller Überblick

Exposure

Disaster/Crises

Susceptibility

Environmental psychology

Agents’ Perception of Threat

Agents’ Protection Capacity

Agents’ Perception of Competence

Political science

Political Capacity & Political Willingness

PolSus

Environ-mental stress

Degreeof being susceptible

Wealth & Economic

Sensitivity

EcoSus

SocCuSus

Socio-cultural Integration

Monetary Resources

Agriculture Sector

Economic Sus

Infra-structure System

Health Status

Social Sus

Educational Attainment

Gender Equality

slide8

Agrarian income

External debt

Number of doctors

Perceived Probability

Tax

Conflict

Expen

-

Degree of

GDP per

Employees in

Hydro

-

Size of

Depen-dency from agriculture

Not agrarian income

Life expec-tancy

GDP per capita

Monetary resources

Health status

revenue

ditures for

Corruption

power

involvement

capita

agriculture

Agriculture

Agrarian resources

health

production

Degree

of

Immuni

Self-Efficacy

zations

Resources

Partici

if

pation

Depen-dency ratio

Tax revenue

Infant mortality

Agrarian food source

Not agrarian resources

Relative

Relati

ve

Lack of

Economic

state

State

Wealth

Sensitivity

capacity

willingness

Agriculture (% of GDP)

Illiteracy

Not agrarian food source

Appraisal of threat

Appraisal of competence

Technical measures

Agricul-ture sector

Economic suscep-tibility

Social suscep-tibility

Educa-tional attainment

Socio

-

cultural

Employees in agriculture

Expen-ditures for education

Political

Susceptibility

Economic

Neg. conse-quences

Susceptibility

(as lack of Social

Susceptibility

“At place” measures

Perceived Severity

Integration)

Conse-quences of drought

Hydro-power production

% female in labour force

Pos. conse-quences

Suscep-tibility

Gender equality

Infra-structure system

Response-Efficacy

Barriers

Female literacy

Irrigated areas

Susceptibility

Susceptibility

Threatened values

measured input variable

dimension, computedvia Fuzzy subsystem

slide9

Susceptibility

Susceptibility

Susceptibility

India 2001

Portugal 2001

Russia 2001

0,7

0,4

0,3

Low capacity

Low capacity

Low capacity

high

low

low

for technical

for technical

for technical

measures

measures

measures

1,00

Low capacity

1,00

Low capacity

1,00

Low capacity

Dependency

Dependency

Dependency

for at place

0,75

for at place

0,75

for at place

0,75

f. agriculture

f. agriculture

f. agriculture

measures

measures

0,50

0,50

measures

0,50

0,25

0,25

Barriers to

Barriers to

Barriers to

0,25

Dependency

Dependency

Dependency

implement

implement

0,00

implement

0,00

0,00

ratio

ratio

ratio

measures

measures

measures

Appraisal of

Appraisal of

Appraisal of

Low

Low

Low

threatened

threatened

threatened

resources

resources

resources

values

values

values

Negative

Negative

Negative

consequences

consequences

consequences

of drought

of drought

of drought

Susceptibility

Susceptibility

Susceptibility

India 1991-1995

0,6

0,3

0,4

crucial

low

low

Financial

indicators

1,00

0,75

Gender

Agriculture

0,50

indicators

indicators

0,25

0,00

Education

Infrastructure

indicators

indicators

Health

indicators

Susceptibility

Susceptibility

Susceptibility

Portugal 1991-1995

India 1991-1995

Russia 1991-1995

0,8

0,3

0,8

Lack of

very high

Lack of

low

very high

Lack of

Statecap

Statecap

Statecap

1,00

1,00

1,00

0,75

0,75

0,75

Lack of

Lack of

0,50

Lack of

0,50

0,50

Lack of

Lack of

Lack of

Social

Social

Social

Statewill

0,25

0,25

Statewill

0,25

Statewill

Integration

Integration

Integration

0,00

0,00

0,00

Economic

Lack of

Economic

Lack of

Economic

Lack of

Sensitivity

Wealth

Sensitivity

Wealth

Sensitivity

Wealth

Ergebnisse

für

Anfälligkeit

Andhra Pradesh, India

Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal

Volgograd + Saratov, Russia

Psychology

Russia 1991-1995

Portugal 1991-1995

Financial

Financial

indicators

indicators

1,00

1,00

0,75

0,75

Gender

Agriculture

Gender

Agriculture

0,50

0,50

indicators

indicators

indicators

indicators

0,25

0,25

0,00

0,00

Economics

Education

Infrastructure

Education

Infrastructure

indicators

indicators

indicators

indicators

Health

Health

indicators

indicators

Political Science

slide10

Ergebnisse

Comparison of Disciplines

1,0

0,8

0,6

Susceptibility [Fuzzy Index]

0,4

0,2

0,0

Andhra Pradesh,

India

Algarve + Alentejo,

Portugal

Volgograd + Saratov,

Russia

Economics perspective

Political perspective

Psychological perspective

slide11

Fazit

  • Refinement of the concepts of susceptibility, environmental stress, crisis
  • Integrated Assessment – Coupling between approaches from the social and natural sciences
  • Development of methodology to assess susceptibility
  • Comprehensive and comparative approach to susceptibility
  • First steps towards integrated approach to study the internal side of vulnerability
  • Quantification of susceptibility
  • Consideration of qualitative information
  • However, more effort needed to validate findings
  • Consider participative involvement of relevant stakeholder
slide12

Rapid Assessment of Vulnerability:Ein Ansatz zur integrierten Bewertung von Vulnerabilität durch Klimaveränderungen

Ausblick und Anwendung

slide13

Projektziele

  • Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Dürren und Wasserressourcen
  • Methode zur Abschätzung der Vulnerabilität der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels
  • Methode des “Rapid Assessment” Zweijähriger Projektzyklus
  • Regionaler Ansatz (Region, Flussgebiet)
  • “Screening Tool” Vergleich der Vulnerabilität unterschiedlicher Regionen und Identifizierung von “hot spots”
slide14

Anwendungsbereiche (Auswahl)

  • Forum for Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER)Globales Netzwerk, Krisenidentifizierung, Analyse von Konfliktursachen
  • Environment and Security Transforming Risks into Cooperation (ENVSEC)Analyse von Krisenursachen, Umweltkooperation als Instrument der Krisenprävention
  • Early Analysis of Tensions and Fact-Finding (FAST)Politisches Frühwarnsystem, Entscheidungshilfe für Entscheidungsträger, quantitativ-qualitative Methoden
slide17

Fallstudien

  • Bisherige Fallstudien Süd-Portugal, südliches Wolgabecken, Andhra Pradesh
  • Zusätzliche Fallstudien
    • Westliches Tajikistan
    • Kooperationspartner (UNEP DEWA, UNDP, OSZE)
    • Sulawesi
    • Verbindung mit IMPENSO und DFG SFB STORMA (Teilprojekt 5D)
  • Vorteile
  • Datenverfügbarkeit, regionale Partner, Nachfrage zur Entscheidungsvorbereitung
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