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Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination) Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dr. Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination)

Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dr. Dörthe Krömker

Frank Eierdanz

Adelphi Research, Berlin

Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Dr. Richard KleinDr. Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik

Konzepte zur Verbindung unterschiedlicher disziplinärer Ansätze in der Klimawirkungsforschung


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Crises event Kassel

Environmental Stress

High probabilityof crises

Low probability of crises

No crisesevent

Susceptibility

Gemeinsames Rahmenmodell


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  • Ziele des Projektes Kassel

  • better understanding of extreme climate events and risks to society …

  • … improving the definitions of the three central concepts

    • crisis

    • environmental stress

    • susceptibility

  • Focus: Climate-related water shortages.


  • Fallstudiengebiete l.jpg
    Fallstudiengebiete Kassel

    Volgograd + Saratov

    Russia

    Algarve + Alentejo

    Portugal

    Andhra Pradesh

    India


    Slide5 l.jpg

    Anfälligkeit: …Schwerpunkt heute Kassel

    Krise: Medienanalyse

    Wasserstress: kombinierter neuer Index


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    Methode zur Abschätzung von Anfälligkeit Kassel

    • Developing inference models from 3 perspectives definition of concepts, selection of indicators

    • 2. Collecting data top-down and bottom-up from case study regions:

      • Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh

    • 3. Quantifying the models with fuzzy set theory

    • 4. Computing susceptibility from 3 perspectives …

      • environmental psychology, political science, economics


    Slide7 l.jpg

    Economics Kassel

    Konzeptioneller Überblick

    Exposure

    Disaster/Crises

    Susceptibility

    Environmental psychology

    Agents’ Perception of Threat

    Agents’ Protection Capacity

    Agents’ Perception of Competence

    Political science

    Political Capacity & Political Willingness

    PolSus

    Environ-mental stress

    Degreeof being susceptible

    Wealth & Economic

    Sensitivity

    EcoSus

    SocCuSus

    Socio-cultural Integration

    Monetary Resources

    Agriculture Sector

    Economic Sus

    Infra-structure System

    Health Status

    Social Sus

    Educational Attainment

    Gender Equality


    Slide8 l.jpg

    Agrarian income Kassel

    External debt

    Number of doctors

    Perceived Probability

    Tax

    Conflict

    Expen

    -

    Degree of

    GDP per

    Employees in

    Hydro

    -

    Size of

    Depen-dency from agriculture

    Not agrarian income

    Life expec-tancy

    GDP per capita

    Monetary resources

    Health status

    revenue

    ditures for

    Corruption

    power

    involvement

    capita

    agriculture

    Agriculture

    Agrarian resources

    health

    production

    Degree

    of

    Immuni

    Self-Efficacy

    zations

    Resources

    Partici

    if

    pation

    Depen-dency ratio

    Tax revenue

    Infant mortality

    Agrarian food source

    Not agrarian resources

    Relative

    Relati

    ve

    Lack of

    Economic

    state

    State

    Wealth

    Sensitivity

    capacity

    willingness

    Agriculture (% of GDP)

    Illiteracy

    Not agrarian food source

    Appraisal of threat

    Appraisal of competence

    Technical measures

    Agricul-ture sector

    Economic suscep-tibility

    Social suscep-tibility

    Educa-tional attainment

    Socio

    -

    cultural

    Employees in agriculture

    Expen-ditures for education

    Political

    Susceptibility

    Economic

    Neg. conse-quences

    Susceptibility

    (as lack of Social

    Susceptibility

    “At place” measures

    Perceived Severity

    Integration)

    Conse-quences of drought

    Hydro-power production

    % female in labour force

    Pos. conse-quences

    Suscep-tibility

    Gender equality

    Infra-structure system

    Response-Efficacy

    Barriers

    Female literacy

    Irrigated areas

    Susceptibility

    Susceptibility

    Threatened values

    measured input variable

    dimension, computedvia Fuzzy subsystem


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    Susceptibility Kassel

    Susceptibility

    Susceptibility

    India 2001

    Portugal 2001

    Russia 2001

    0,7

    0,4

    0,3

    Low capacity

    Low capacity

    Low capacity

    high

    low

    low

    for technical

    for technical

    for technical

    measures

    measures

    measures

    1,00

    Low capacity

    1,00

    Low capacity

    1,00

    Low capacity

    Dependency

    Dependency

    Dependency

    for at place

    0,75

    for at place

    0,75

    for at place

    0,75

    f. agriculture

    f. agriculture

    f. agriculture

    measures

    measures

    0,50

    0,50

    measures

    0,50

    0,25

    0,25

    Barriers to

    Barriers to

    Barriers to

    0,25

    Dependency

    Dependency

    Dependency

    implement

    implement

    0,00

    implement

    0,00

    0,00

    ratio

    ratio

    ratio

    measures

    measures

    measures

    Appraisal of

    Appraisal of

    Appraisal of

    Low

    Low

    Low

    threatened

    threatened

    threatened

    resources

    resources

    resources

    values

    values

    values

    Negative

    Negative

    Negative

    consequences

    consequences

    consequences

    of drought

    of drought

    of drought

    Susceptibility

    Susceptibility

    Susceptibility

    India 1991-1995

    0,6

    0,3

    0,4

    crucial

    low

    low

    Financial

    indicators

    1,00

    0,75

    Gender

    Agriculture

    0,50

    indicators

    indicators

    0,25

    0,00

    Education

    Infrastructure

    indicators

    indicators

    Health

    indicators

    Susceptibility

    Susceptibility

    Susceptibility

    Portugal 1991-1995

    India 1991-1995

    Russia 1991-1995

    0,8

    0,3

    0,8

    Lack of

    very high

    Lack of

    low

    very high

    Lack of

    Statecap

    Statecap

    Statecap

    1,00

    1,00

    1,00

    0,75

    0,75

    0,75

    Lack of

    Lack of

    0,50

    Lack of

    0,50

    0,50

    Lack of

    Lack of

    Lack of

    Social

    Social

    Social

    Statewill

    0,25

    0,25

    Statewill

    0,25

    Statewill

    Integration

    Integration

    Integration

    0,00

    0,00

    0,00

    Economic

    Lack of

    Economic

    Lack of

    Economic

    Lack of

    Sensitivity

    Wealth

    Sensitivity

    Wealth

    Sensitivity

    Wealth

    Ergebnisse

    für

    Anfälligkeit

    Andhra Pradesh, India

    Algarve + Alentejo, Portugal

    Volgograd + Saratov, Russia

    Psychology

    Russia 1991-1995

    Portugal 1991-1995

    Financial

    Financial

    indicators

    indicators

    1,00

    1,00

    0,75

    0,75

    Gender

    Agriculture

    Gender

    Agriculture

    0,50

    0,50

    indicators

    indicators

    indicators

    indicators

    0,25

    0,25

    0,00

    0,00

    Economics

    Education

    Infrastructure

    Education

    Infrastructure

    indicators

    indicators

    indicators

    indicators

    Health

    Health

    indicators

    indicators

    Political Science


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    Ergebnisse Kassel

    Comparison of Disciplines

    1,0

    0,8

    0,6

    Susceptibility [Fuzzy Index]

    0,4

    0,2

    0,0

    Andhra Pradesh,

    India

    Algarve + Alentejo,

    Portugal

    Volgograd + Saratov,

    Russia

    Economics perspective

    Political perspective

    Psychological perspective


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    • Fazit Kassel

    • Refinement of the concepts of susceptibility, environmental stress, crisis

    • Integrated Assessment – Coupling between approaches from the social and natural sciences

    • Development of methodology to assess susceptibility

    • Comprehensive and comparative approach to susceptibility

    • First steps towards integrated approach to study the internal side of vulnerability

    • Quantification of susceptibility

    • Consideration of qualitative information

    • However, more effort needed to validate findings

    • Consider participative involvement of relevant stakeholder


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    Rapid Assessment of Vulnerability: Kassel Ein Ansatz zur integrierten Bewertung von Vulnerabilität durch Klimaveränderungen

    Ausblick und Anwendung


    Slide13 l.jpg

    • Projektziele Kassel

    • Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Dürren und Wasserressourcen

    • Methode zur Abschätzung der Vulnerabilität der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels

    • Methode des “Rapid Assessment” Zweijähriger Projektzyklus

    • Regionaler Ansatz (Region, Flussgebiet)

    • “Screening Tool” Vergleich der Vulnerabilität unterschiedlicher Regionen und Identifizierung von “hot spots”


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    • Anwendungsbereiche (Auswahl) Kassel

    • Forum for Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER)Globales Netzwerk, Krisenidentifizierung, Analyse von Konfliktursachen

    • Environment and Security Transforming Risks into Cooperation (ENVSEC)Analyse von Krisenursachen, Umweltkooperation als Instrument der Krisenprävention

    • Early Analysis of Tensions and Fact-Finding (FAST)Politisches Frühwarnsystem, Entscheidungshilfe für Entscheidungsträger, quantitativ-qualitative Methoden



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    • Fallstudien Kassel

    • Bisherige Fallstudien Süd-Portugal, südliches Wolgabecken, Andhra Pradesh

    • Zusätzliche Fallstudien

      • Westliches Tajikistan

      • Kooperationspartner (UNEP DEWA, UNDP, OSZE)

      • Sulawesi

      • Verbindung mit IMPENSO und DFG SFB STORMA (Teilprojekt 5D)

    • Vorteile

    • Datenverfügbarkeit, regionale Partner, Nachfrage zur Entscheidungsvorbereitung


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