Lecturer: Oscar Hidalgo-Redondo Date: 28 April 2009

1. Comparative Transitions to DemocracyUniversity Masaryk in BrnoUnit V. The Development of the “Transitology”: Classic Transitions to Democracy in the 1970 and 1980s Lecturer: Oscar Hidalgo-Redondo Date: 28 April 2009

2. 5.1 The Collapse of the Second Democratising Wave • Second wave: since 1945 • post-WWII democratisation • countries that lost the war • countries that need to regenerate political structures • new countries • 2 different scenarios • scenarios of success • post-fascist regimes • regeneration of democratic structures • scenarios of collapse • new regimes • authoritarianism and violence • By 1960, the dream of worldwide extension of democracy was over • collapse of new-born democracies

3. Difficult process • Cold War scenario • internal forces divided: civil wars • friendly rogues • Regional dynamics • de-stabilising focus • Economic performance • broken promises of democracy • dissatisfaction • Lack of democratic maturity • political cultures’ compatibility with democracy • elite behaviours • In 1960 many countries that initiated a process of change • aborted democratisation • in 1960 democratic recession

4. 5.2 Scenarios for Democratisation in the 1970s • Third wave of democratisation will begin in the 1970s • in European authoritarian regimes • maturation • exhaustion • lack of legitimacy • Portugal, Greece and Spain • different contexts • length of authoritarian regime • long, Portugal and Spain • short, Greece • type of ruler • military, Spain and Greece • civilian, Portugal • sharing one common element • societies’ maturity and support of democracy

5. Transitions will be different • Portugal and Greece, revolutionary character • Spain, transaction • Transitions different from the Second wave • internal lead • societies demand democratisation • Transitions are studied • generate models of regime transformation • “science” of the transition • to be applied to other cases • From Southern Europe • to Latin America • Bolivia 1982 Brazil 1985 Paraguay 1989 Ecuador 1979 • Argentina 1983 Peru 1979 Chile 1990 Uruguay 1985

6. to other continents • Africa • Asia • Eastern Europe • Third wave transitions become the theoretical benchmark to study processes of democratisation

7. 5.3 Democracy in the Third Wave • Subsequent waves of democracy have expanded the understanding of democracy • long cycle, political rights • second wave, social rights • third wave, 3 generation rights • “post-modern”, “post-materialist” rights • cultural rights • environmental protection • consumers’ rights • adding advances registered in the most developed states • New stage in the history of constitutionalism • deepening the understanding of the meaning of democracy • from the political • to the non-political

8. Democratisation as a process with an internal drive • vs. second wave, external • transitions as a response to internal developments • external factors as catalysers • not the ingredients of the transition • democratisation as a result to internal maturity • study of the elements that must be present for a process of democratisation to exist • Democracy as an internal dialogue between relevant political actors within the societies • elite in power • opposition leaders • the masses • need of study this relations • guides for success (democratic engineering)

9. 5.4 Modes of Transition in the Third Wave • Focused on the way in which the transfer of power was carried out • led by the old elite • taken by the democratisers • Transition as rupture • old elite loses control of the situation • regime does not reproduces its legitimacy • new regime is demanded a change • ends with old elite being toppled • Greece, Portugal • Transition as a transaction • the quota of power of the old elite is very strong • still in position to negotiate • agreement old regime and opposition • Spain

10. 5.5 Transitions as Rupture: Portugal • Salazar’s Portugal • Salazar is an academic • traditionalist • countryside, traditional society • conservative • anti-communist • religious • Catholic morals • reach to power after the collapse of the I Republic in 1926 • disorder • dissatisfaction with the performance of the state • military dictatorship • 1928 Minister of Economy, economic crisis • academic • 1932 President of Council of Ministers • saviour, redemptory figure • save the state from collapse • take Portugal to success • support for his project: a New State (Estado Novo)

11. The “New State” • union under the leadership of the leader • figure of the “father of the nation” • traditionalism: “Deus, Pátria e Familia” • state working as a body • corporatism, union of the powers of the state • 1 party, National Union • social organisations • through the state • repression (PVDE-PIDE), enemies of the state • propaganda • 1960s, Decline of Salazar’s regime • failed promises of development • lack of democracy • colonial question • India, Goa, Daman, Diu • Angola, Cabo Verde, Mozambique • Salazar’s illness

12. 1968 Salazar for is substituted by Marcelo Caetano • Caetano, a gray profile • academic, no popularity • managing economic crisis • colonial problems • social unrest • disintegration of the regime in 1970s • Revolution from within the regime • army sectors (middle low officers: Captains) coup d’etat • 25 April 1974, occupation of strategic points • population supports the army • Movimento das Forças Armadas (MFA) • democratising plan • elections within 1 year • Caetano’s regime crumbles down • National Salvation Junta, military presence • 1974-5 a turbulent period • Communist Party and revolutionary officers • drive towards socialism • Moderate forces, maintain a democratic order

13. Division in the army • hierarchy • revolutionary officers • Social confrontation • North, conservative • South, revolutionary • 25 April 1975 Constitutional Assembly elections • triumph of moderates, 70% votes for moderates • draft of new constitution • not fully democratic, threat of revolutionary army • reserves of power • Council of the Revolution • 1976 Parliamentary regular elections • 75% votes for constitutionalists • revolutionaries losing positions • 1982 reform of the constitution • council of the revolution

14. 5.6 Transitions as Transaction: Spain • 1939 creation of the regime • influenced by Fascist regimes and Salazar • corporatist state, led by a central figure: Francisco Franco • not very charismatic • military man, hierarchy • Evolution in Franco’s regime • 1939-1954 isolationism, autarky • repression • WWII, “No-belligerence” policy • Blockade • economic stagnation • scarcity • Cooperation with USA • UN membership 1955 • 1955-1960s “desarrollismo” • technocrats, Opus Dei • 1959 plan of development with WB and IMF

15. 1960s tensions • hard-liners (bunker) • reformers • 1970s weakening of the regime • economic crisis, return of emigrants • political contestation • health of Franco • 1975 death and transition • Late 1960s Franco realises the debility of his regime • more contestation • transformation of the Spanish society • economic difficulties • sickness and age • 1969 Succession Law • King Juan Carlos to become king • attempt to unify the moderate forces • but Franco was not planning a transition • 1973 death of the admiral Carrero Blanco • Franco’s selected candidate to rule after him

16. November 1975 Franco died • King Juan Carlos I head of state • but surrounded by Francoite officials • hardliners, Government leader Arias Navarro • reformers, vice-secretary of the Movimiento Adolfo Suarez • Juan Carlos I substituted the Arias for Suarez • alliance Suarez-King Juan Carlos • unite moderate Francoite sectors • moderate reformers • regime is not dismantled by a revolution • but the Francoite assembly finished with the regime • 1976 Law for the Political Reform • 15 December Referendum • Suarez is able to convince main actors of the need of the pact • leaders of democratic parties • moderates in the Movimiento

17. 1977 free elections for constitutional assembly • PCE legalised • First elections triumph of the moderates • UCD of Suarez 35% • PSOE of Gonzalez 30% • PCE 9% • AP 9% • Constitutional assembly, 1978 democratic constitution