The Impact of Oil Depletion on Australia
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The Impact of Oil Depletion on Australia Bruce Robinson, Brian Fleay & Sherry Mayo Sustainable Transport Coalition ASPO Lisbon May 2005. Sustainable Transport Coalition. Look Out Australia ! Something serious is looming on the radar . ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?. Summary

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The Impact of Oil Depletion on Australia Bruce Robinson, Brian Fleay & Sherry Mayo Sustainable Transport Coalition ASPO Lisbon May 2005

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The Impact of Oil Depletion on Australia

Bruce Robinson, Brian Fleay & Sherry Mayo

Sustainable Transport Coalition

ASPO Lisbon May 2005

Sustainable Transport

Coalition

Look Out Australia !

Something serious

is looming on the radar

?? ? ? ?

?? ? ? ?


Summary

Australia, now

Oil demand, production, use (transport)

Geography, population

3 different countries remote, rural, urban

High Oil Vulnerability

Australia will be badly affected by oil depletion,

unless substantial changes are made

Possible change options for government


=1.3 EfT3

Australia uses 45,000 megalitres of oil each year

a 360m cube

Sydney Harbour Bridge

is 134 m high

80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport

If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop → ethanol = 9%


Total Oil Consumption

Production Net imports

M bbl/day

China

20

EU 15 + Norway

Australia

10

l

l

1 km

United States

0

Aust Eu-15+ USA China Japan

Aust Eu-15 USA China Japan

Oil consumption bbl/day/1000 people

Registered vehicles /1000 people

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Aust Eu-15 USA China Japan


Australia's liquid fuel production decline began in 2001.

Powell, Geoscience Australia, 2001


Australia’s oil production and consumption

1965-2030

Actual Forecast

1.0

Million barrels/day

Consumption

0.8

0.6

Production

0.4

P50

0.2

0.0

1965

2005

2025

1985

Geoscience Australia, APPEA, ABARE


Evolution of Forecasts of Australian Oil Production

Geoscience Australia (Australian Geological Survey)

k bbl/day Actual Forecasts


Evolution of Forecasts of Australian Oil Production

Geoscience Australia (Australian Geological Survey)

k bbl/day Actual Forecasts

Past liquids production forecasts have often proven

too low.

NGL production depends on gas contracts


Australia

“A wide brown land”

“The Tyranny of Distance”

Annual rainfall

mm

3200

1600

Perth to Sydney 3300 km

800

400

Big

Mostly arid

Mostly low fertility soils

20 M people

Already exceeding sustainable population


Europe and Australia

by night – same scale, same brightness


Remotenessclassification

Major cities

Inner regional

Outer regional

Remote

Very remote

Outer

regional

Very remote

Remote

3 separate countries

Remote Regional Urban

3% 31% 66%

Inner

regional

Major cities


Remote Australiamining, pastoral, indigenous

Blackstone community

Indigenous

communities

2.4% of Australians

are indigenous

ROAD ACCESS:800 km to Alice Springs. 1110 km to Kalgoorlie

Weekly police patrol visits by vehicle from Laverton, 750 km to the West.

Twice weekly small aircraft from Alice Springs to Kalgoorlie,

The largest dots indicate 500 people or more, the smallest less than 50


Blackstone Community Circa 100-200 people

ROAD: 800 km to Alice Springs (food and fuel)


Iron ore train, Pilbara ~ 200M tonne p.a.

Road trains


Brockman Iron Formation, near Mt Tom Price, NW Western Australia


Rural

Australia

Sparsely

populated


wealth

car use

US

Aus

Europe

Urban/Suburban

Australia

Institute for Sustainability

and Technology Policy

Murdoch University, Perth

City wealth vs car use

per capita (1990)


Urban Australia

Keilor Downs

NW Melbourne


30 km

KeilorDowns

Melbourne Urban Sprawl


Urban passenger mode shares Australia

Car

High automobile-dependence

Public transport share

is very low

Potterton BTRE 2003


Non-urban passenger outlook: Air grows faster than other modes

Air

passenger

Car

Potterton BTRE 2003


$10 PER LITRE PETROL: A SCENARIO

(a ten-fold increase)

David Rice, Senior WA Transport Planner

The scenario means “What if petrol reaches $10/l?

Planners should include this scenario, as well as “business-as-usual”

But why $10/l?

Simple

memorable

an illustration of ‘expensive’

www.stcwa.org.au/beyondoil/$10petrol.doc


The impact of

oil depletion

on Australian cities.

The bushfire analogy

The Canberra fire-storms of January 2003 destroyed over 400 houses; on the outer edge of the outer suburbs

Reliable predictions had been ignored by the authorities,

and there was no effective action to minimise the risks


Satellite image of Canberra region showing fire-damage from the west. January 2003.

Red hues are burnt areas.

White lines show suburbs


Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.

Perth

30 km


Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.

Perth

30 km


Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.

Perth

30 km


Oil shocks, like the $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.

Perth

30 km


The outskirts of all Australian cities will be hard hit by oil depletion, as public transport infrastructure is very poor

Perth

30 km


short

most

^

UK National Newspaper

The Guardian

Tuesday December 2, 2003

“Bottom of the barrel

The world is running out of oil- so why do

politicians refuse to talk about it?

Every generation has its taboo ..the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it.

This is a civilisation in denial”.

George Monbiotsee www.monbiot.com


June 15, 2004

Govt releases new energy strategy

Future oil summary, IEA only

“No Worries”

Another “Intelligence Failure”

like WMD?


Western Australian State Government

“Production itself is likely to peak,

maybe as early as 2006,

but more conventionally 2010 – 2015”

“It is also certain that the cost of preparing too early is nowhere near the cost of not being ready on time.”

WA Minister

Alannah MacTiernan

Queensland State Parliament

“Peak oil represents the most serious and immediate

challenge to our prosperity and security.

It will impact on our lives more certainly than terrorism,

global warming, nuclear war

or bird flu.”


Gb/year

Efficiency

Demand

Growth

World oil

shortfall scenarios

Transport

mode shifts

Pricing / taxes

City design/lifestyle

Past Production of Oil

Other petroleum fuels

gas, tar-sands

Other fuels

Deprivation, war

Forecast

Production

2005

no single “Magic Bullet” solution,

Noah! Start now! Hard to build the ark under water

after Swenson, 2000


Individualised Marketing: Travel behaviour changeEquivalent to discovering another Iraq?

Reducing automobile travel can produce “nega-barrels”* of oil

more cheaply than oil can be found by exploration.

(*negative oil, saved by conservation)

Discovering another

Iraq ?

About half the world’s 80 million barrels of oil per day goes on road transport.

A 5% reduction in global motor vehicle transport usage would save about as much oil as Iraq now produces (circa 2M b/d).

Reduction of 10% in US travel alone would save half an “Iraq”.

Large programs in cities in Germany, Australia & Sweden have shown sustained average reductions of 13% in car-kms travelled.

Individualised Marketing informs interested people of available travel options. They are empowered to choose different travel modes and to reduce unnecessary travel.

The strategy (IndiMark®) was developed by Munich firm Socialdata.

www.STCwa.org.au/negabarrels

www.Socialdata.de


Petrol taxes OECD

UK

Au$

cents/litre

Portugal

0.80

0.60

Australia

0.40

0.20

US

0.00

IEA Dec 2003


The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher

pence

Nominal tax per litre (pence)

50

Real tax

40

30

20

10

0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Australian fuel taxes should be raised to European levels on a fuel tax escalator


“Add in the geopolitical costs of oil andthe case for raising petrol taxes, especially in America, becomes overwhelming”

April 30th- May 6th 2005


Water Analogy for Fuel Pricing

A personal fuel SmartCard system could tax petrol and diesel on a sliding scale like water.

People could trade unused allocations to those who want more fuel.

A rational pricing system

Perth domestic water

Renewable scarce resource


There are innumerable “Perverse” subsidies

Tax on cars as part of salary

to

roads,

4WDs

profligate vehicle users

heavy inefficient vehicles

Supermarket petrol discounts

People who walk to the supermarket are subsidising

those who drive in the big SUVs


Participatory Democracy 1300 people at city planning workshop Perth 2003

Oil depletion action

needs an informed and

engaged community


Australian Government Policy and Action Options

1: “Talk about it, Talk about it”

2. Engage people, “Participatory democracy”

3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight transport.

4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and disadvantage profligate users.

Fuel taxes should be incrementally raised to European levels to reduce usage.

5: SmartCard personal fuel allocation system. A flexible mechanism for short-term oil shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce their fuel usage..

6. Concentrate on the psychological and social dimensions of automobile dependence, not just “technological fixes”

7. Implement nationwide "individualised marketing" travel demand management.

8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are better investments than more roads.

9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas supplies to food production, essential services and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card system.

10. Review the oil vulnerability of every industry and community sector and how each may reduce their risks.

11 Promote through the United Nations an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the declining oil among nations. An international tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is one hypothetical option.


Australia must not let the

opportunities slip away

Many of the policy options to reduce

fuel usage will also lead to wealthier,

healthier and happier communities.

Australia is very well placed globally

Big attitude changes in past;

to race, gender, smoking, water..

 World-leading demand management skills

TravelSmart and water conservation

Considerable uncommitted gas reserves

Failure to act now will prove incredibly costly

Abstract at www.STCwa.org.au/aspo

See our “Oil: Living with Less” policy

Sustainable Transport Coalition www.STCwa.org.au


Two spare slides follow in case of questions


“Oil: Living with Less” at www.STCwa.org.au

Bicycles are powered

by biomass,

renewable energy,

either breakfast cereal

or abdominal fat

No shortage of either


Australia

US

China


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