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Market Analysis For Mutual Fund Investors. Michael Price Investors OnTrack, Inc. 850-934-6300 admin@mprice.net. An Overview. A Structured Approach to Market Analysis. Business Cycle Breadth Market Indexes Global Trends Sector Trends Fund Selection Hedging.

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Market Analysis For Mutual Fund Investors

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Market Analysis For Mutual Fund Investors

Michael Price

Investors OnTrack, Inc.

850-934-6300

admin@mprice.net

An Overview


A Structured Approach to Market Analysis

  • Business Cycle

  • Breadth

  • Market Indexes

  • Global Trends

  • Sector Trends

  • Fund Selection

  • Hedging


Business Cycle

  • Is the growth rate of the economy increasing or decreasing?

  • Is the economy growing at, above, or below the rate that the Fed considers to be inflationary?

  • Is the Fed trying to slow or to stimulate the economy?

  • Are corporate profits likely to increase or decrease in the foreseeable future?


The Typical Business CycleAs Described by Martin Pring in the All-Season Investor

  • Stage I – Bond Prices Bottom

    • Bonds Bullish

    • Stocks Bearish

    • Commodities Bearish

  • Stage II – Stocks Bottom

    • Bonds Bullish

    • Stocks Bullish

    • Commodities Bearish

  • Stage III – Commodities Bottom

    • Bonds Bullish

    • Stocks Bullish

    • Commodities Bullish

  • Stage IV – Bond Prices Top

    • Bonds Bearish

    • Stocks Bullish

    • Commodities Bullish

  • Stage V – Stocks Top

    • Bonds Bearish

    • Stocks Bearish

    • Commodities Bullish

  • Stage VI – Commodities Top

    • Bonds Bearish

    • Stocks Bearish

    • Commodities Bearish

The Economy

Bond Prices

Stock Prices

Commodity Prices


Breadth

  • Is the current advance or decline narrow or broad?

  • What are the implications of very negative or very positive breadth?

  • What role does volume play?

  • Reference : The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicator by Gregory L. Morris.


Market Indexes

  • Are the major market indexes in agreement about the trend direction?

  • Does the market have a capitalization bias?

  • Does the market have a value – growth bias?

  • Relative strength comparisons.


Where’s the Money Going?

  • Market Watch List

  • Sector Watch List


Fund Selection

  • What funds are performing best in the current market environment?

  • What is the current environment?

  • How do I measure performance?


Portfolio Development

  • What does a plot of my portfolio look like?

  • How does it compare to market indexes?

  • What is my level of portfolio risk?

  • Should I be hedged in the current market environment?


Suggestions

  • Look at a LOT of charts.

  • Read a lot – looking for facts, not opinion, or at least fact-based opinion.

  • Draw on your experience, special knowledge and intuition.

  • Limit risk.

  • Have realistic expectations.

  • Value your own opinion, no one knows what tomorrow will bring.


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