Introduction (IPAT)      Population	Consumption 	Technology   	Social Justice
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Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice. What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology? Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?

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Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?

What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology?

Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?

Why is Tom otherwise?


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT

Impact on the environment =

Population x

Activity per person (or Affluence) x

Technology (impact per activity).

I = P x A x T

  • How many of us are there? How much stuff are we doing? How environmentally damaging is the stuff we’re doing?

  • Assumes affluence = consumption


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Impact (CO2 and other GHG emissions) =

Population x

Affluence (GDP* per person) x

Technology (Emissions per unit of GDP).

I = P x A x T (now you do the units analysis)

* Gross Domestic Product measures a country’s economic output (and income).


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

  • What’s happening with population?

  • What’s happening with the economy (GDP per person)?

  • What’s happening with technology (emissions per unit GDP)?


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Introduction (IPAT) Population Social JusticeConsumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

  • What’s happening with population?


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Introduction (IPAT) Social Justice Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

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Introduction (IPAT) Social Justice Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).


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Introduction (IPAT) Social Justice Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Why?

Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).


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How many children did Social Justiceyour grandparents have (on average)?

  • One

  • Two

  • Three

  • Four

  • Five

  • Six or more


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How many children did Social Justiceyour parents have?

  • One

  • Two

  • Three

  • Four

  • Five

  • Six or more


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How many children do Social Justiceyou want to have, or how many did you have?

  • Zero or adopt

  • One

  • Two

  • Three

  • Four

  • Five

  • Six or more


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Introduction (IPAT) Social Justice Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

2010


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Introduction (IPAT) Social Justice Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Afghanistan

Malawi

Zimbabwe

India

Norway

USA

Austria

Greece

China


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Introduction (IPAT) Social Justice Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

Demographic transition

  • World population is still increasing, but it appears to be heading for a peak of around 9 billion. Why???

  • Coercion? Environmental awareness? The invisible hand?

  • Mostly just blind luck!

  • Is 9 billion a lot or a little?

  • The UN’s range for 2300 is 2 to 36 billion!


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Introduction (IPAT) Social Justice Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

From UN, The World at Six Billion

  • Of the 78 million people currently added to the world each year, 95 percent live in the less developed regions.

  • Countries with population over 100 million

    • In 1950: China, India, U.S., Russian federation

    • In 2000, add Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Nigeria

    • In 2050, add Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, Turkey.

  • World population density will increase from 44.6 people/sq km in 2004 to 66 in 2050.

  • Ranges from Bangladesh (1045), India (336), China (138) to USA (31) and Canada (3.2)


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

  • What’s happening with population?

  • What’s happening with GDP per person?


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

Per capita GDP

  • Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the size of economic activity in a country.

  • U.S., 2007: $45,800 GDP per capita

  • China, 2007: $5,400

  • Zimbabwe 2007: $200

  • In 2005, world GDP rose by ≈4-5%, so per capita GDP growth was ≈3-4%.

    CIA World Factbook

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

Compare GDP with other measures


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

Affluence ~ Consumption (?)

  • A gold wedding ring ~ 3 tons of discharge at a mine in South Africa or the U.S. (47% of gold is recycled).

  • A gold watch ~ 10 to 20 tons.

  • Lunch with two quarter pounders

    • If animal was from Brazil, then 54 ft2 (~5 m2) of rain forest is gone, 59 lb of methane produced, ~200 gallons of water, 3.74 lb of grain

    • Hamburger bun required wheat, water, nitrogen fertilizer.

  • To build your car, it took 605,664 gallons of water for its steel parts and tires. Battery ~ 17.6 lbs of lead produces ~ 682 lbs of pollution at a mine in Australia or the U.S. (73% is recycled), Car has 22 lbs of copper produces ~2178 lbs of discharge somewhere in Chile or the U.S. (60% is recycled).

Professor Yannis Phillis


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

Average US Citizen (per day)

  • Consumes 0.44 lbs (or 53 teaspoons) of sweetners per day (mostly in processed food)

  • Produces 33 lbs of C per day (20% of which is due to the personal automobile)

  • Excluded food and fuel, one consumes 222 lbs of material per day

  • Generates 4.4 lbs of garbage (33% is packaging)

  • Ecological footprint is 4x world average; China and India are well below world average.

Professor Yannis Phillis


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

Professor Phillis’ Model of Sustainability

  • Overall sustainability (OSUS) = ecological sustainability (ECOS) + human sustainability (HUMS)

  • ECOS = air quality, water quality, land integrity, biodiversity

  • HUMS = Political aspects, education, economic welfare, health

Andriantiatsaholiniaina, L.A., V.S. Kouikoglou and Y.A. Phillis. 2004. Evaluating strategies for sustainable development: fuzzy logic reasoning and sensitivity analysis

Ecological Economics 48: 149 - 172.


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

Comparison of Cars per Person

ABC News 2007


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice


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Introduction (IPAT) Social JusticePopulation ConsumptionTechnology Social Justice

IPAT and climate change

Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

  • What’s happening with population?

  • What’s happening with GDP per person?

  • By 2100, population may be 50% higher, and GDP/person may be 50-500% higher.

  • Yoram’s conclusion: If we’re going to reduce GHG emissions, it’s gotta be technology.

  • Justice and power issues will likely result in a combination of changes.


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McKibben argues for a change from ______ to durability and resiliency

  • Green GNP

  • Sustainability

  • Demand for expansion

  • Concept of justice

  • Web of connections


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McKibben also argues for moving from “X” to “Y” resiliency

  • Community to wildness

  • Five channel to cable TV

  • Wildness to community

  • Thinking about the future to thinking about now


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Introduction (IPAT) resiliencyPopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice

Good news: Energy use per unit of GDP is falling! (Our economies are becoming less energy- and carbon-intensive.)


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Introduction (IPAT) resiliencyPopulationConsumption Technology Social Justice

Bad news: The drop in T (technology) has not been keeping pace with increases in P (population) and A (affluence).


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Introduction (IPAT) resiliencyPopulationConsumption TechnologySocial Justice

Technological realism: If China and the U.S. keep building coal plants like crazy, IPAT suggests that carbon emissions will not fall.


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Introduction (IPAT) resiliencyPopulation Consumption Technology Social Justice

Views on technology

Technological optimists: “Technology will save us! Wind/solar/fuel cells/nuclear/etc.”

Technological pessimists: “Technology won’t save us—we need changes in values and lifestyles.”

Technological realists: “If technology doesn’t save us, we’re not going to be saved.”

Combination: Matching global aspirations with emerging situation - McKibben readings


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What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?

What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, and technology?

Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?

Why has Tom chosen more than technology as a solution?


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