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All in a State of Publishing. Michael Cairns Information Media Partners RLG Symposium, Chicago - June 11, 2010.

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All in a state of publishing l.jpg

All in a State of Publishing

Michael Cairns

Information Media Partners

RLG Symposium, Chicago - June 11, 2010


Jonathan shaw gutenberg 2 0 harvard s libraries deal with disruptive change l.jpg

“For Libraries and Librarians, the new premium on skills they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

Jonathan Shaw – Gutenberg 2.0: Harvard’s Libraries Deal With Disruptive Change


Information publishers are trailblazers l.jpg
Information Publishers are trailblazers they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

Master

Competent

Learner

Information

Education

Trade

1990

2003

1995

2015

2010

2001

New Dangers

Rapid Investment

Caution


Introduction and agenda l.jpg
Introduction and Agenda they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

  • Summary of the business environment

  • The future of the book (so far)

  • Publishing in the digital age


Publishing like any other industry l.jpg
Publishing: Like Any Other Industry they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

  • Change

  • Dislocation

  • Speed

  • Technology


Characterizing the marketplace today l.jpg
Characterizing the Marketplace today they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

  • Subdued

  • Anxious

  • Retrenchment

  • Confusion

  • Jealousy


Key segment business drivers l.jpg

Trade they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

Big author block buster

Technology – Products

Technology – Distribution

Retail stability

Media tie-ins “Celebrity”

Conflict over ‘attention’

Information

Practicing professionals

Macro economics

Library budgets

Government investment

Workflow applications

Technology innovation

Key Segment Business Drivers

Education

  • Government spending –

    • NCLB

    • Education Policy

  • Local & state

    • Adoptions

    • Taxes

  • Enrollments

  • Economy

    • Continuing education

    • Community colleges

    • Long distance

    • Vocational/Technical

  • Workflow tools

    • Evaluative

    • Administrative


Revenues look healthy l.jpg
Revenues Look Healthy they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

($,Millions)

Source: BISG Trends Report 2009


New book titles and editions 2003 2010 e l.jpg
New Book Titles and Editions: 2003-2010(E) they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

Source: R.R. Bowker


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Sales of Trade E-Books $ Millions they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

Source: IDPF


Sales of digital textbooks percent of us market l.jpg
Sales of Digital Textbooks: Percent of US Market they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

Source: Misouri Book Company



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Pearson: years.Digital is 31% of revenues in 2009.

Wiley, Elsevier, Wolters Kluwer have similar statistics



Observations l.jpg
Observations years.

  • Revolution or reinvention?

  • E-Books highly segmented

  • Trade adoption driven by hardware and price

  • Education faster mover, academic less so

  • No significant innovation

  • Piracy – No consistent approach, no real data


Trade a giant mess no massive change l.jpg
Trade: “a giant mess”…“no massive change” years.

  • Top of the pyramid

  • Senior executives are focused on ‘E’

  • Most publishers not addressing the transition

  • Reliant on supply chain to drive e-Content

  • Curation is little understood but will be important

  • Workflows are being redefined


Academic future hasn t been invented yet l.jpg
Academic: “future hasn’t been invented yet” years.

  • Print is still ‘format of record’ – dissertations, tenure

  • Limited impact of e-Content migrations

    • Content rendering issues

  • Old publishing model: long lead times, high pricing, one dimensional content

    • Bastardized content: graphs, tables, equations, etc.

  • Potential to exceed Trade in application of benefits of e-Content

    • Indexing, bibliographies, source materials, etc.


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Education: “much faster than anticipated” years.

  • E-Content migration significantly underway

  • Successes with “born digital” content – not just ‘migrated’ print content

    • Few publishers thinking about ‘e’ from scratch

  • E-Book hardware have failed (thus far) in education

  • Market develops to a ‘database’ and ‘subscription’ model

    • Content becomes ‘dynamic’

  • Platform for services and content


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“Many of our genre titles couldn’t be published without library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.” “I don’t understand how libraries are going to exist in a future market.”“We don’t love any of the models that exist for libraries.”


Implications l.jpg
Implications library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”

  • Patron and library data vacuum

    • Ambivalence and lack of awareness of library market dynamics: “What’s remote access?”

    • Relationship between loaning and buying

    • Characteristics of library patrons

    • Current patron behavior in an e-Content world

    • Can patrons be leveraged by publishers more effectively?


A library social world l.jpg
A library social world library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”

  • Gathering readers together

    • The ‘lonely act’ of reading transitioning to community reading

    • Around the book

    • Building communities

    • Networked reading

    • Can librarians help this trend and/or participate in it


Publishing in the digital age l.jpg

Publishing in the Digital Age library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”

Thoughts and predictions


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Remember the Characterization? library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”

  • Subdued

  • Anxious

  • Retrenchment

  • Confusion

  • Jealousy


Are things really that bad l.jpg
Are things really that bad? library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”

  • During 2009 Book Publishing a winner

  • No ‘resurrection’ during 2009

  • Executives guarded about immediate future

  • Short to medium term problems with education and library funding

  • No bail-out!


Change is coming l.jpg

Trade library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”

Re-evalution of value chain

Direct to consumer models

Publishers as retailers, retailers as publishers

Information

Software as a service

Application providers

Service outsourcers

Embedded content

Change is Coming

Education

  • Expanded value chain

  • Solutions providers

  • Custom production

  • Content, Assessment, Remediation, Management


Ebooks and econtent holds center stage l.jpg
eBooks and eContent holds center stage library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”

  • 2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’

  • Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media content will be defining

  • Google Editions: “The Cloud”

  • Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of ownership

  • E-Content rather than E-Books

  • E-Content another format option


Forecasting publishing in the digital age l.jpg
Forecasting Publishing In The Digital Age library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”

  • Publishing and technology will become synonymous

  • Web delivery, xml based and ‘open’ social network orientation

  • Expansion of solutions based publishing

  • Education publishers rapid adoption of solutions based applications

  • Slow publishers will loose to new entrants

27


People want to be directed l.jpg
“People want to be directed.” library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”


Thank you the united states of publishing l.jpg

THANK YOU. library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.”The United States of Publishing

Michael Cairns

[email protected]

Blog: personanondata.blogspot.com


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