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SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010

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SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010 . Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global. Want a copy of the presentation? Have questions about the presentation?. [email protected] www.strglobal.com 615.824.8664 x3321.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

SAN DIEGO RevPar:

Past, Present & Future

24 May 2010

Bobby BowersSmith Travel Research / STR Global

slide2

Want a copy of the presentation?

Have questions about the presentation?

[email protected]

www.strglobal.com

615.824.8664 x3321

slide3
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date
slide4
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010

2.9%

-1.7%

-1.1%

- 4.8%

- 6.9%

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

total united states occupancy adr percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to april 2010
Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010

0.1%

-4.5%

-3.4%

-4.7%

-7.4%

-6.8%

-9.6%

total united states revpar percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to april 2010
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010

- 11.5%

-10.5%

-16.8%

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

str chain scales selected brands by category
Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont

Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton

Upscale – Cambria, Courtyard, Hilton Garden Inn

Midscale with F&B – Ramada, Holiday Inn, Best Western

Midscale no F&B – Comfort Inn, Fairfield Inn, H.I. Express

Economy – Econolodge, Days Inn, Red Roof

STR Chain ScalesSelected Brands by Category
san diego key market facts
464 hotels / 58k rooms

310 rooms under construction - 0.5%

$1.6 billion annual room revenue

41% room revenue - Downtown

41% room revenue – Luxury / Upper Up

2009 ADR fell 20.2% - # 6 among top 25

San DiegoKey Market Facts
slide16
San Diego – Luxury, Upper Upscale, Upper Tier IndependentsTransient / Group - Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
san diego room supply demand percent change twelve month moving average january 2000 to april 2010
San DiegoRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010

2.8%

-0.3%

-7.8%

-8.4%

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

san diego occupancy adr percent change twelve month moving average january 2000 to april 2010
San DiegoOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010

-3.0%

-3.7%

-11.4%

-8.2%

-11.9%

san diego revpar percent change twelve month moving average january 2000 to april 2010
San DiegoRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010

- 14.6%

-21.2%

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

san diego chain scales revenue share twelve months ending march 2010
San Diego Chain Scales - Revenue Share (%)Twelve Months Ending March 2010

Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion

san diego sub markets revenue share twelve months ending april 2010
San Diego Sub Markets - Revenue Share (%)Twelve Months Ending April 2010

Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion

u s economic outlook blue chip economic indicators may 2010
20092010F2011F

Real GDP -2.4% +3.2% +3.1%

CPI -0.4% +2.0% +1.9%

Corporate Profits -3.8% +19.4% +8.1 %

Disp Personal Income +0.9% +1.3% +2.6%

Unemployment Rate 9.3% 9.6% 8.9%

U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators – May 2010
total united states active development pipeline rooms change from prior year
Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Prior Year

April 2010 April 2009 Change % Chg

In Construction 77,404 170,242 -92,838 -54.5%

“Planned” Pipeline 289,676 363,326 -73,650 -20.3%

Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases

Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

slide37
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeFull Year 2009 Actual & 2010 / 2011 Forecast
takeaways
Value is King – What’s distinctive about your product?

Performance trough likely past

Supply growth slowing

Demand slowly improving

Pricing conditions improving

Moderate improvement 2010

Meaningful growth anticipated 2011

Takeaways
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