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SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010 . Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global. Want a copy of the presentation? Have questions about the presentation?. [email protected] www.strglobal.com 615.824.8664 x3321.

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SAN DIEGO RevPar:

Past, Present & Future

24 May 2010

Bobby BowersSmith Travel Research / STR Global


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Want a copy of the presentation?

Have questions about the presentation?

[email protected]

www.strglobal.com

615.824.8664 x3321


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Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date


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Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010

2.9%

-1.7%

-1.1%

- 4.8%

- 6.9%

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.


Total united states occupancy adr percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to april 2010 l.jpg
Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010

0.1%

-4.5%

-3.4%

-4.7%

-7.4%

-6.8%

-9.6%


Total united states revpar percent change twelve month moving average 1989 to april 2010 l.jpg
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010

- 11.5%

-10.5%

-16.8%

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.


Top 25 markets versus rest of u s key performance indicators percent change april 2010 ytd l.jpg
Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S.Key Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD



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Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont

Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton

Upscale – Cambria, Courtyard, Hilton Garden Inn

Midscale with F&B – Ramada, Holiday Inn, Best Western

Midscale no F&B – Comfort Inn, Fairfield Inn, H.I. Express

Economy – Econolodge, Days Inn, Red Roof

STR Chain ScalesSelected Brands by Category


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Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD


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Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD



San diego key market facts l.jpg

464 hotels / 58k rooms

310 rooms under construction - 0.5%

$1.6 billion annual room revenue

41% room revenue - Downtown

41% room revenue – Luxury / Upper Up

2009 ADR fell 20.2% - # 6 among top 25

San DiegoKey Market Facts


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San DiegoKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date


San diego weekday weekend percent change april 2010 ytd l.jpg
San DiegoWeekday / Weekend Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

Weekends = Friday / Saturday


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San Diego – Luxury, Upper Upscale, Upper Tier IndependentsTransient / Group - Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD


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San DiegoKey Indicators - Percent ChangeMay 1 – 15, 2010


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San DiegoRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010

2.8%

-0.3%

-7.8%

-8.4%

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.


San diego occupancy adr percent change twelve month moving average january 2000 to april 2010 l.jpg
San DiegoOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010

-3.0%

-3.7%

-11.4%

-8.2%

-11.9%


San diego revpar percent change twelve month moving average january 2000 to april 2010 l.jpg
San DiegoRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010

- 14.6%

-21.2%

2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.


San diego revpar monthly percent change january 2008 april 2010 l.jpg
San DiegoRevPAR - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010

2008

2009


San diego occupancy monthly percent change january 2008 april 2010 l.jpg
San DiegoOccupancy - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010

2008

2009


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San DiegoAverage Daily Rate - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010

2008

2009


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Key 15 MarketsRevPar Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

Excludes Las Vegas


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Key 15 MarketsOccupancy Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

Excludes Las Vegas


Key 15 markets adr percent change april 2010 ytd l.jpg
Key 15 MarketsADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD

Excludes Las Vegas


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San Diego Chain Scales - Revenue Share (%)Twelve Months Ending March 2010

Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion


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San Diego - Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent Change2010 April YTD


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San Diego Sub Markets - Revenue Share (%)Twelve Months Ending April 2010

Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion


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San Diego Sub MarketsOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD


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San Diego Sub MarketsOccupancy PercentApril 2010 YTD


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San Diego – Sub MarketsAverage Daily RateApril 2010 YTD



U s economic outlook blue chip economic indicators may 2010 l.jpg

20092010F2011F

Real GDP -2.4% +3.2% +3.1%

CPI -0.4% +2.0% +1.9%

Corporate Profits -3.8% +19.4% +8.1 %

Disp Personal Income +0.9% +1.3% +2.6%

Unemployment Rate 9.3% 9.6% 8.9%

U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators – May 2010


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Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Prior Year

April 2010 April 2009 Change % Chg

In Construction 77,404 170,242 -92,838 -54.5%

“Planned” Pipeline 289,676 363,326 -73,650 -20.3%

Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases

Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline


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Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeFull Year 2009 Actual & 2010 / 2011 Forecast


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San Diego, CA Market Supply & Demand Outlook 2008-2010F Annual vs. Prior Year


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San Diego, CA Market Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Outlook 2008-2010F Annual vs. Prior Year


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San DiegoADR Percent Change vs. U.S. Inflation


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Value is King – What’s distinctive about your product?

Performance trough likely past

Supply growth slowing

Demand slowly improving

Pricing conditions improving

Moderate improvement 2010

Meaningful growth anticipated 2011

Takeaways


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