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Nepal Contemporary Political Situation IV: Political Opinion Poll. Top-Line Findings. Interdisciplinary Analysts. February 5, 2007 Hotel Greenwich. Rationale.

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Nepal Contemporary Political Situation IV:

Political Opinion Poll

Top-Line Findings

Interdisciplinary Analysts

February 5, 2007

Hotel Greenwich


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Rationale

  • The consensus among the Seven Party Alliance (SPA), the CPN Maoists and other political parties for elections to the constituent assembly, which will then draft a new constitution.

  • It is important that constituent assembly deliberations are able to give voice to communities whose concerns have generally not been audible.

  • Once the voice of such disenfranchised communities is made audible and are listened to, the new constitution drafting process would be much more inclusive than had been the case in the past.

  • However, for this to happen it is important to inform all the communities, including marginalized ones, about constituent assembly.


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Objectives

  • The main objective of the opinion poll is to document the level of knowledge among the people at large on the processes and contents of constituent assembly.


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Specific objectives:

  • To assess the level of knowledge among the people – disaggregated on the basis of caste/ethnicity, gender, urban-rural divide, development-geographical region, religion, etc. - on constitution assembly process and contents.

  • To help formulate messages and target communities to enable them be more actively educated on the constituent assembly.

  • To gauge people’s opinion about the issues pertaining to state re-structuring and related issues such as monarchy vs. republicanism, federalism vs. unitary system, proportional representative electoral system vs. majority-based electoral system, single state language policy vs. multiple language policy, Hindu state vs. secular state, affirmative actions to Dalits and women, etc.

  • To identify changes, if any, in people's perception on major political issues.


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Related works by Interdisciplinary Analysts

(Sudhindra Sharma & Pawan Kumar Sen)

  • 1999 General Election Opinion Poll:

  • How Voters Assess Politics, Parties and Politicians

  • Nepal Contemporary Political Situation:

  • Opinion Poll Report (2005)

  • Fieldwork done in December 2004

  • 3. Nepal Contemporary Political Situation II:

  • Opinion Poll Report (2006)

  • Fieldwork done in January 2006

  • 4. Nepal Contemporary Political Situation III:

  • Opinion Poll Report (2006)

  • Fieldwork done in September 2006

  • Interdisciplinary Analysts is grateful to The Asia Foundation for the financial support in undertaking longitudinal opinion polls. Interdisciplinary Analysts was assisted by AC Neilson for the fieldwork of NSPS I & II, while Blitz Media rendered assistance for the fieldwork of NCPS III.


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Methodology

• Closed-ended questionnaire

• 2,011 respondents

• 21 purposely selected districts

• Criteria for selecting districts is caste/ethnicity

• Sample districts represent 5 development regions

and 3 ecological zones

• From every sample district, 4 VDCs were selected

purposely maintaining consistency with caste/

ethnicity composition of population

• 4 sample VDCs within a sample district:

a) one is VDC where District HQ is located

b) another one is VDC nearby HQ

c) other two are VDCs loacated far away from HQ


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Sampling at the district level

FW Mount

MW Mount

West Mount

FW Hill

East Mount

MW Hill

Central Mount

West Hill

FW Tarai

Central Hill

East Hill

MW Tarai

West Tarai

Central Tarai

East Tarai


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Sample Characteristics


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Sample Characteristics cont …


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Sample Characteristics cont …


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Sample Characteristics cont …


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Sample Characteristics cont …


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Sample Characteristics cont …


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Sample Characteristics cont …


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Fieldwork:

Planning and Some Experiences

  • Team Formulation

  • Duration (Dec 22, 2006 – Jan 13, 2007)

  • Experiences

    • Sindhupalchowk

    • Rolpa

    • Banke


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Key Findings


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Public’s understanding of the constituent assembly


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The trend suggests that not only have more people heard the term but also more people understand the term correctly. However, compared to those who have heard about constituent assembly, there is only a small increase in those who correctly understand it.


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Percentage of those favouring affirmative action for Dalits and women


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