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DSB Summer Study on Special Operations and Joint Forces in Support of Countering Terrorism Friday August 16, 2002 Final Outbrief [Excerpt]. For Official DSB Use Only -- Do Not Distribute. Sponsors.

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Slide1 l.jpg

DSB Summer Study

on

Special Operations and Joint Forces in

Support of Countering Terrorism

Friday

August 16, 2002

Final Outbrief

[Excerpt]

For Official DSB Use Only -- Do Not Distribute


Special operations joint forces in support of countering terrorism dr ted gold mr don latham l.jpg

Sponsors

Special Operations & Joint Forces in Support of Countering TerrorismDr. Ted GoldMr. Don Latham

USD(AT&L)/Commander JFCOM

Prior CT InsightsMG Bob ScalesDr. Wick Murray

Future Force CapabilitiesGEN Bill HartzogVADM Dave Frost

Advanced CT Technologies & SystemsDr. Mim JohnDr. Ron Kerber

We drew on past DSB studies

Intel PanelDr. Joe MarkowitzADM Bill Studeman

Enduring Freedom

Psyops

Unconventional Use of Nuclear Weapons Against U.S.Dr. Rich WagnerDr. Bill Graham

Managed Information Dissemination

We leveraged current DSB Studies

Precision Targeting

Defensive Information Operations

Biological WarfareDr. Anna SkalkaMr. Larry Lynn

Discriminant Use of ForceDr. Ted GoldDr. Josh Lederberg

Others

2


The global war on terrorism gwot a real war a new type of adversary l.jpg
The Global War on Terrorism (GWOT): A Real War, A New Type of Adversary

  • Requires new strategies, postures, and organization

  • Committed,resourceful, globally dispersed adversary with strategic reach

  • A long, at times violent, and borderless war

This study only scratches the surface of what will eventually be needed

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Elements of a National Strategy: Orchestrate All Instruments of National Power in a Global Campaign

  • Preemption/proaction/interdiction/disruption/quick-response capabilities

  • Be proactive in securing partners and help from allies, friends, and others

  • Hold states/sub-state actors accountable

  • Foster information sharing

  • Fight forward

  • Focus particular attention on WMD

  • Sophisticated, aggressive public diplomacy

All the above in parallel with consequence management and protecting the homeland and DoD’s missions and forces

For Official DSB Use Only -- Do Not Distribute


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Guidance From Our Terms of Reference of National Power in a Global Campaign

  • Focus is overseas military operations

    • Military instrument is only part of the necessary capabilities

    • Examined the role of intelligence in some detail

  • Did not address homeland defense explicitly

    • But difficult to segment theaters in this war

    • We did consider threats to US military force projection from the US

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The Toughest Challenge: Identify and Find Terrorist Networks

  • Very small “signals” hidden in massive clutter and noise

  • Some similarities with Cold War anti-submarine warfare (ASW) efforts

  • Extensive differences as well

For Official DSB Use Only -- Do Not Distribute


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Conducting Military Campaigns in States Harboring Terrorists Networks

  • OEF demonstrated substantial progress toward desired force capabilities

  • From

    • Air, land, sea, space

  • To

    • Robust connectivity

    • Horizontally integrated, pervasive ISR

    • Agile ground forces able to operate dispersed

    • Effective remote fires

    • Adaptive joint command and control

    • Assured access and supply (expeditionary mindset)

These emerging capabilities will be critical for an effective military role in GWOT

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Characteristics of Afghan Campaign That Will Persist Networks

  • A more central role for SOF and specialized capabilities

  • Joint integration at very low levels

  • Discriminant use of force

  • Interagency partners play major roles

  • Creative operational arrangements with coalition partners

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Recent DoD Initiatives in the GWOT Networks

  • Expanded Joint Warfare Analysis Center (JWAC) and Land Information Warfare Activity (LIWA) initiatives

    • Interagency – Link analysis

  • Operational net assessment (ONA) capabilities at Combatant Commands

    • JFCOM – CENTCOM – NORTHCOM

  • New Campaign Support Group at Ft. Bragg

    • Multi-agency – Joint – Global perspective – New analysis tools – Multi-option analysis

  • Joint Program Office – Special Technology Countermeasures: Mission Assurance Analysis

  • Counter-terrorism Technology Support Office – Technical Support Working Group

  • Physical Security Equipment Action Group

  • Special Operations Joint Interagency Collaboration Center

  • J8 Chem/Bio Warfare Requirements Section

  • DoD Support to DEA Special Intelligence

  • JFCOM Initiatives

    • Standing Joint Force Headquarters – Joint Interagency Coordination Group

    • Joint Enroute Mission Planning and Rehearsal System - Near Term

    • Enhanced C4ISR Homeland Operations Center – Joint National Training Capability

  • USN Deep Blue (Navy Operations Group)

  • USN/USMC Expeditionary Strike Group Proof of Concept

  • USMC/SOCOM Integration Initiatives

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Recent DoD Initiatives in the GWOT Networks

  • DARPA projects, e.g.:

    • Genoa

    • Evidence Extraction and Link Discovery

    • Translingual Information Detection, Extraction, and Summarization

    • Babylon

    • Human Identification at a Distance

    • Modern Internetted Unattended Ground Sensors

    • Foliage Penetration Radar (SAR and GMT I)

    • Standoff Precision Identification from 3D Data

    • Digital Radio Frequency Tags

    • Advanced ISR Management

  • ACTDs:

    • High-Altitude Airship

    • Pathfinder

    • Active Denial System

    • Thermobaric

    • Adaptive Joint C4ISR Mode

    • Joint Blue Force Situational Awareness

    • Language and Speech Exploitation Resources

    • Cave and Urban Assault

    • Urban Reconnaissance

    • Hyperspectral Collection and Analysis System (HyCAS)

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Major Concerns Networks

  • DoD should take the terrorist threat as seriously as it takes the likelihood and consequences of major theater war

  • DoD still struggling to get joint C4 right

  • Pentagon processes overly focused on materiel

  • Defense and Intelligence processes and cultures remain input- rather than product-oriented

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Achieving decision and execution superiority over terrorists and their sponsors l.jpg

Understanding adversaries and providing “actionable” intelligence

Achieving Decision and Execution Superiority Over Terrorists and Their Sponsors

“Tools” to handle tough environments and difficult targets

Adaptive and responsive national-level decision making

Tailoring forces for more SOF-centric operations

For Official DSB Use Only -- Do Not Distribute


Achieving decision and execution superiority over terrorists and their sponsors13 l.jpg

Understanding adversaries and providing “actionable” intelligence

Achieving Decision and Execution Superiority Over Terrorists and Their Sponsors

“Tools” to handle tough environments and difficult targets

Adaptive and responsive national-level decision making

Not the focus of our study

Tailoring forces for more SOF-centric operations

For Official DSB Use Only -- Do Not Distribute


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1 intelligence

Understanding adversaries and providing “actionable” intelligence

Achieving Decision and Execution Superiority Over Terrorists and Their Sponsors

2

“Tools” to handle tough environments and difficult targets

A much more responsive, flexible, and effective military capability

Adaptive and responsive national-level decision making

3

Tailoring forces for more SOF-centric operations

4

Operationalizing new approaches and capabilities

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Discussion Outline intelligence

  • Organization, context, and themes

  • Understanding new adversaries and providing “actionable” intelligence

  • “Tools” to handle tough environments and difficult targets and understand our vulnerabilities

  • Tailoring forces for more SOF-centric operations

  • Operationalizing new approaches and capabilities

  • Recap

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A Much More Responsive, Flexible, and Effective Military Capability

  • Understanding new adversaries and providing “actionable” intelligence: deep penetration - understanding, finding, and tracking the terrorists and their networks

  • “Tools” to handle tough environments and difficult targets and understand our vulnerabilities

  • Tailoring forces for more SOF-centric operations

  • Operationalizing new approaches and capabilities

For Official DSB Use Only -- Do Not Distribute


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- Key Initiatives – Capability

Transformation of HUMINT (and human-technical) operations

Aggressive, proactive, preemptive, operations

Intelligence surge/unsurge capability

Expanded analytical capabilities and throughput against asymmetrical adversaries

Understand adversaries as complex adaptive systems

Understanding New Adversaries and Providing “Actionable” Intelligence: Deep Penetration - Understanding, Finding, and Tracking the Terrorists and Their Networks

For Official DSB Use Only -- Do Not Distribute


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Transformation of HUMINT Operations Capability

  • SecDef (working with DCI) expand overall Directorate of HUMINT Services (DHS)/Service roles and explore SOF opportunities

  • Increase HUMINT forward/operational presence

  • Work with DCI to deploy new DoD clandestine technical capabilities

  • NSA/Combatant Commanders/Services pay more attention to support of DoD HUMINT in the field

  • SOF continue to work Advance Force Operations (AFO)

  • Define HUMINT role in “Proactive” Ops; ensure Covert Action (CA) and IW/IO connections

  • Explore development of USAF/Navy HUMINT capabilities (beyond current compartmented programs)

  • A major covert HUMINT program needs to be made joint

  • Explore new and more varied HUMINT modes – described on next chart

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Transformation of HUMINT Operations Capability

Classified HUMINT Chart


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Aggressive Proactive, Preemptive Operations Group (P2OG) Capability

CLASSIFIED

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Aggressive Proactive, Preemptive Operations Capability

  • Creation of a Proactive Preemptive Operating Group (P2OG) of creative subject matter operational experts such as:

    • IW/IO – Covert Action – Diplomacy – Cover & Deception

    • Intelligence Operations – PSYOPS – HUMINT – SIGINT – SOF

  • Improves information collection by stimulating reactions

  • Enhance operational preparation of the battlespace to support preemptive options and actions

  • Signal to harboring states that their sovereignty will be at risk

  • Vest responsibility and accountability for the P2OG to a “Special Operations Executive” in the NSC* who shall:

    • Define the national strategy

    • Coordinate action

    • Enunciate policy

    • Execute to a plan coordinated with the SecDef and DCI and others as appropriate

* The position exists in the NSC and is called: “National Director and Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism”, NSPD-8, Oct. 24, 2001

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Intelligence Surge/Unsurge Capability Capability

  • Maintain a robust global cadre of retirees, reservists, and others who are trained and qualified to serve on short notice, including expatriates

    • Make investments now

    • Exercise and engage (through gaming) at least annually

    • Maintain a database of individuals and skills

    • Focus on Tier 4 countries where CT operations may be necessary

    • Contracted roles for industry, universities, and think tanks

  • Focus on analytic expertise and capabilities, CA/SOF issues, scientists and engineers, linguists/area experts, and personnel recovery skills

  • Work with DoD and Congress on “unsurge” issues, particularly related to callups

  • Develop innovative “data surge” capabilities

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Improving Analytical Capabilities and Throughput Capability

  • Create a new and larger analytic workforce with skills and innovative tools focused on counterterrorism (CT)

  • Focus on “actionable intelligence,” improved situational awareness, targeting and reachback support and “connecting the dots” using JWAC-like analysis approaches

  • Full-time collaborative connections between all the critical centers working CT intelligence and support

  • Analysis components of national intelligence organizations physically or virtually collocated to improve all-source multi-INT “analysis” collaboration and production

  • Support for intelligence collection-related “target development”

  • Develop new security/sanitization concepts to aid analysts in protecting new sources and methods

  • Identify roles for analysts in operational net assessment process/joint experimentation, vulnerability analysis/Red Teaming, and CT-related gaming and simulation

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Greatly Improving Customer Access to Intelligence Counterterrorism Information

  • SecDef/DCI establish a group to define a future path to achieve a truly joint interoperable CT Common Operating Picture (COP)

  • Improve chat windows and secure collaborative means/directories for direct access to relevant analysts and related data environments

  • Converge large e-gov programs currently underway in SIGINT and IMINT for improved customer access to intelligence data/collaboration

  • Pursue an integrated family of “small terminal programs” for field/small unit access to intelligence data (data, imagery, etc.)—smart push and pull

  • DCI/SecDef provide portals, tools and pointers for access to unclassified open sources data bases, commercial sources etc.

  • Develop advanced visualization concepts for conveying intelligence and situational information

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Understanding Adversaries as Complex Adaptive Systems Counterterrorism Information

  • Further expand and enhance Joint Warfare Analysis Center (JWAC)-like capabilities

    • Expand the number of countries/actors as well as the factors considered

    • Address non-physical as well as physical dimensions

    • Address money flow, cronies, family, intra-military, other

  • The capabilities must be coupled closer to campaign planning and execution (effects-based operations):

    • To influence as well as respond

    • Support information/influence ops in peace/crisis/war as well as more traditional maneuver/fires

  • These capabilities are also needed to:

    • Focus information collection efforts

    • Provide context to better understand collected data

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Recommendation Counterterrorism Information

Develop an entirely new capability to proactively, preemptively evoke responses from adversary/terrorist groups

Form a new elite Counter-terrorism Proactive Preemptive Operations Group (P2OG) at the NSC level

Highly specialized people with unique technical and intelligence skills such as information operations, PSYOP, network attack, covert activities, SIGINT, HUMINT, SOF, influence warfare/deception operations

Reports to NSC principal level

Lead Responsibility

NSC lead with DCI, SecDef, State, Justice participation

Recommendation: Proactive Operations

  • “Cost”

  • 100 “new” people

  • $100M/yr for operations and support

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Recommendation Counterterrorism Information

Develop new capabilities, sources, and methods to enable deep penetration of adversaries

DO/DHS develop new modes and methods for covert operations – See classified chart on HUMINT

Increase emphasis on CT CA to gain close target access

Develop new clandestine technical capabilities

Create a surge capability in intelligence to preempt and deal with rapidly emerging crises in the GWOT

Maintain a robust cadre of retirees reservists and specialists, qualified to serve on short notice

Contract roles for industry universities and think tanks

Lead Responsibility

DCI Lead SecDef/CJCS

ASD(C3I) and DCI Community Management Staff (CMS)

DCI/DoD co-shared lead

Recommendation: Improve Intelligence

  • “Cost”

  • $1.7 Billion/FY beginning in FY-04 and continuing

  • $100M/yr for exercises, engagement in the form of gaming, and real operations

Supports CIA DO/DDS&T initiatives

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Recommendation Counterterrorism Information

Expand counter terrorism and asymmetric adversary analytical capabilities and throughput

Increase Service and intelligence agency analytic specialties, unique to CT challenges, by 500 people over the next 18 months to add depth of expertise

Focus on understanding effects of globalization, radicalism, cultures, religions, economics, etc., to better characterize potential adversaries

More virtual collaboration architecture for analyst support and customers interaction

Lead Responsibility

CMS shared lead with ASD(C3I)

Recommendation: Improve Intelligence (cont.)

  • “Cost”

  • $800M/yr for technical capabilities development and 500 new staff

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Recommendation Counterterrorism Information

Establish additional “centers” of excellence to handle the greatly increased work load and to augment JWAC to support “targeting” (in the broadest sense) of terrorist organizations and their supporting infrastructure—these activities will draw upon intelligence feeds, Red Teaming, and a great variety of subject matter experts (regional, cultural, psychological, soft and hard sensors)

Pursue and expand JFCOM’s operational net assessment activity employed in millennium challenge

Lead Responsibility

JFCOM

Recommendation: Gain Deeper Understanding of Terrorist Organizations and Their Supporters as Complex Adaptive Systems

  • “Cost”

  • Add to existing initiatives up to $100M per FY as appropriate

  • $100M initiative at JFCOM, CENTCOM, NORTHCOM, and DARPA

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[remainder of briefing deleted here] Counterterrorism Information


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