Smart Climatology: Concepts and Products Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) murphree@nps.edu

1. Smart Climatology: Concepts and Products Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) murphree@nps.edu Brief Presented to CAPT David Titley, USN NPS, 15 June 2006 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

2. Outline • Definitions and Concepts • Climatology in Support of Military Operations • Requirements • Gaps in Climatological Support • Smart Climatology Products • Needed Smart Climatology Capabilities • Research and Development Issues to be Resolved • Reasons to Pursue Smart Climatology Support for War Fighters • Outline of Smart Climatology Prototype Project • NPS Climatology Courses • References Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

3. Acknowledgements • This module reflects numerous discussions with, and/or contributions from, many people, including: • Naval and Air Force officers in the NPS climatology courses • Dave Titley, CAPT, USN • David Smarsh, Col, USAF • Bruce Ford (LCDR, USN, retired) • Joel Feldmeier, LCDR, USN • Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF • Mark LaJoie, Maj, USAF • Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF • Jake Hinz, LCDR, USN • Jeff Jarry, Capt, USAF • Richard Siquig, NRL-Monterey • Roy Ladner, NRL-SSC • Brian Rivenbark, LCDR, USN • Staff at Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC) • Staff at Climate Prediction Center (CPC) • Results from several other people are also included and cited in this brief. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

4. Statement of Problem • Warfighters are not getting the full benefit of proven operational • climatological data and methods because: • 1. DoD climatology is behind the times. • 2. Long term mean climatology is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations. • 3. Information is often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest. • 4. A lot of very relevant climo information, methods, and products are not yet readily available to METOC personnel or their customers. • a. not yet adapted for military use • b. no central, easily accessible source • 5. It is difficult to translate climo information into environmental impacts on operations, and such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products. • 6. METOC units must interpret available climo information to fit their individual needs. • a. too time consuming and labor intensive • b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and • effective if done by experts at a central location • c. units’ time is better spent tailoring smart climo to the needs • of combatant commanders Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

5. Definitions Climate The expected state of the environment based on scientific observations, analyses, theories, and models. The expected state is based on both long term observations and theoretical concepts about the behavior of the climate system. The expected state accounts for long term means and variations from these means that occur over long periods (e.g., anomalous trends and oscillations that occur over weeks, years, or longer). The climate of a location is generally determined by synthesizing information collected over a long period of time, for example, synthesizing weather observations made over many years at a station. Climatology The scientific study of climate and the application of climate information and methods to solve practical problems. There are many types of climate studies and resulting products, including: statistical and dynamical analyses, modeling, and forecasts of the components of the climate system and the climate system as a whole. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

6. Definitions Traditional Climatology Climatology that focuses on long term means, especially the description of long term mean (LTM) seasonal cycles. Traditional climatology deals little, or not at all, with variations from the long term. Modern Climatology Climatology that addresses LTM patterns and climate variation patterns, with a focus on describing both the patterns and the processes that drive those patterns. The study of climate processes includes the development and application of methods for monitoring, modeling, and forecasting the climate system. Examples of climate variations: El Nino La Nina-Southern Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

7. Traditional Climatology Versus Modern Climatology The reliance on LTMs to describe the climate system means that traditional climatology is unable to account for climate variations that can significantly alter the state of the climate system and impact deployment planning and combat operations (e.g., weapons selection, force positioning, and operational planning). The focus on patterns rather than processes means that traditional climatology contributes relatively little to the dynamical understanding of LTM patterns, or to the analysis and forecasting of climate variations. Thus modern climatology provides a more comprehensive view of the climate system and is much better suited than traditional climatology for supporting combatant commanders. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

8. Climatology in Support of Combatant Commanders Problem DoD climatology products are based almost exclusively on traditional climatology. This means combatant commanders have far fewer useful climo products than are available in the civilian sector or that could be readily adapted for DoD use. Approach to Solving Problem Adapt and apply modern, or smart, climo methods and products for use by combatant commanders (e.g., adapt and apply climate analysis and forecasting methods and products used in civilian sector). Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

9. What is Smart Climatology? The term smart climatology seems to be used by a relatively small number of people in the Naval METOC community. Most people working in military and civilian climatology do not seem to know or use the term. In addition, there seem to be at least two definitions of the term. Two Definitions of Smart Climatology 1. Climatology applied to military planning that is based on long term means (LTMs) but with higher space / time resolutions than are available in most military climo products (e.g., to better capture climo of the littoral region). 2. Climatologyapplied to military planningthat includes LTMs but also accounts for: a. higher order statistics than the LTM b. modern developments in research and operational climatology (e.g., accounts for on-going and forecasted climate variations) Definition 2 explicitly accounts for recent advances in climatology, such as analysis of climate variations and on-going evolution of the climate system, reanalysis, downscaling, climate forecasting, etc. These methods include state of the art methods for developing high resolution climo products. Thus definition 2 encompasses definition 1, and is used from here on in this document. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

10. Smart Climatology = Modern Climatology Smart Climatology Climatology that includes LTMs but also accounts for: a. higher order statistics than the LTM b. modern developments in climate science and operational climatology By this definition, smart climatology could also be called modern climatology. Modern climatology is an apt term, since DoD climatology is way behind the times. Civilian climatology is far more advanced than military climatology, in terms of: 1. climate science 2. development and application of operational climatology methods and products This lag in DoD climatology has created significant gaps in climatological support for war fighters. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

11. Climatology in Support of Strategic, Operational, and Tactical Operations Climatology is a fundamental component of METOC support for war fighters. It is of course a crucial part of strategic and operational planning occurring at lead times of weeks or longer. But climatology is also used in shorter range tactical planning. For example, climatology provides initial states for many of the model based TDAs heavily used on a day-to-day basis aboard CSG and ESG units. So, as climatology is improved, so too are the products provided to operational commanders at all levels of planning and execution. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

12. Climatology in Support of Strategic, Operational, and Tactical Operations Examples of how climatology is used in tactical level forecasting, planning, and execution: 1. Short range models: Climatology is often used to develop model ICs, BCs, surface fluxes, and/or parameterizations. 2. Short range model selection: The selection of a preferred short range model for a particular forecast situation is often based on analyses of model climatologies and comparisons of them to observed climatologies. 3. Forecaster guides: Most of the major concepts, reasoning, and rules of thumb for forecasting short range conditions are based on at least informal climatology. 4. Short range forecasts: Climo is explicitly used in many short range forecasts to reduce uncertainty in forecasts and manage customer risks (e.g., observational and model climo used to select most probable members from an ensemble; observed climo used to plan diverts, AR points). Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

13. Climatology in Support of Strategic, Operational, and Tactical Operations In addition, climatology can help forecasters and their customers avoid many short range negative environmental conditions (e.g., adverse winds, currents, acoustic characteristics). Many of the short range issues that military forecasters face are the direct result of the climate-based planning done, or not done, by their customers. If accurate and operationally relevant climate support is provided and used by customers, forecasters and their customers are less likely to face short range environmental challenges. Example: Accurate wind, wave, and dust climatologies, if available and appropriately used, help CSGs and ESGs avoid bad short range weather in the first place (cf. Ford and Murphree 2006). Conclusion: Smart climatology can improve operational planning and effectiveness by improving environmental analysis and forecasting at all time and space scales. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

14. Requirements for Smart Climatology There are many existing requirements for METOC support. Climatology is an essential part of providing that support, even support of short range tactical operations. Smart climatology is simply modern, state of the art climatology. Thus, the requirements for smart climatology already exist. No new requirements need to be created. Instead, we simply need to recognize that there is a huge gap between (a) present climo support for military operations and (b) the support that is readily achievable through the application of existing, proven concepts, data sets, and methods that are widely used in civilian operational climatology. Once we accept that this gap exists --- that we have not kept up with the times in terms of basic and applied atmospheric and oceanic climatology --- we then need to devote the resources to fill the gap. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

15. Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example Present Level of METOC Effort in Support of ASW Planning and Execution In ASW, relatively little effort is presently devoted to METOC support at leads of 1 week to 2 months (i.e., intraseasonal climo support). This dip in METOC support occurs as ASW commanders are making operational plans and major decisions about resource assignments, deployment load-outs, and training. This is when massive amounts of budget dollars are allocated. Thus, improving intraseasonalclimo support could lead to significant improvements in ASW operations. Level of Effort COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program TAS TOS Mission execution briefs OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical From ASW Coordination/CONOPS Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW

16. Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example Level of METOC Effort Versus Level of Potential Impact on Operations Operational PlanningTeam Engagement MissionPlanning Cell Engagement OPLAN/CONPLAN Development EnvironmentalReconnaissance EnvironmentalReconstruction and Analysis Level of Impact Level of Effort COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program TAS TOS Mission execution briefs OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW

17. Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example Conclusion: Devoting more effort to intraseasonal climatology has the potential to significantly improve operational effectiveness. Operational PlanningTeam Engagement MissionPlanning Cell Engagement OPLAN/CONPLAN Development EnvironmentalReconnaissance EnvironmentalReconstruction and Analysis Level of Impact Level of Effort COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program TAS TOS Mission execution briefs OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW

18. Gaps in Climatological Support – ASW Example Funds for intraseasonal climo support may need to come from other types of support (e.g., short range support that may come too late to be as effectively used by combatant commanders as intraseasonal climo support). In this case, the pointy end of the spear may be better sharpened well ahead of time, rather than right before the battle begins. Level of Impact Level of Effort Trade Space Opportunity COCOM Battlespace Prep Survey Program Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 TAS TOS Mission execution briefs OPLAN/CONPLAN Studies Years Months Weeks Days Hours Strategic Operational Tactical From ASW Coordination/CONOPs Conf 14 Mar 05; CAPT Jeff Best, CNMOC Director for ASW; CDR Van Gurley, CNMOC Deputy Director for ASW

19. Shortcomings of Present DoD Climatological Support • Warfighters are not getting the full benefit of proven operational • climatological data and methods because: • 1. DoD climatology is behind the times. • 2. Long term mean climatology is not sufficient for DoD planning and operations. • 3. Information is often not: (a) up to date; and/or (b) available at sufficient spatial / temporal resolution for area or period of interest. • 4. A lot of very relevant climo information, methods, and products are not yet readily available to METOC personnel or their customers. • a. not yet adapted for military use • b. no central, easily accessible source • 5. It is difficult to translate climo information into environmental impacts on operations, and such translations are rarely provided in off-the-shelf climo products. • 6. METOC units must interpret available climo information to fit their individual needs. • a. too time consuming and labor intensive • b. much of this tailoring would be more efficient and • effective if done by experts at a central location • c. units’ time is better spent tailoring smart climo to the needs • of combatant commanders Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

20. Needed Smart Climatology Capabilities • 1. Need environmental data from multiple sources that are physically consistent and up-to-date (e.g., latest observations and forecasts available for inclusion in climo products). • 2. Need higher spatial and temporal resolution. Most climo products, especially ocean products, have poor or marginal resolutions. • 3. Need a web based, readily accessible, interactive system for analyzing, displaying, and down loading climo information for the global environment. System needs extensive user functions (e.g., analysis functions for compositing, differencing, correlating; display functions for generating time series, layering data, GIS output). • 4. Need to be able to readily account for climate variations and climate forecasts (e.g., El Nino / La Nina, North Atlantic Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, etc.). Presently, almost all DoD climo support is based on just LTMs. • Need to feed smart climo to models that currently use only traditional climatology (e.g., LTMs as initial or expected extreme conditions). • Need system for objectively assessing climatological risks and opportunities for war fighters. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

21. Smart Climatology Products • The following slides show examples of the types of products that • are being, and could be, generated using smart climatology • methods. • These examples include: • Scientific products for METOC personnel to use in developing operational climo products • Operational planning products based on the scientific products • These sample products were developed by: • NPS students as part of the NPS climatology courses • NPS students as part of their thesis research • NPS faculty • NRL personnel • DoD needs to develop such products, and to do so with the breadth • and depth of coverage appropriate for combatant commander needs • (e.g., develop products to support Naval ASW and MIW operations in • key regions of the world). • Contact me for examples of classified smart climatology products that • we have developed at NPS. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

22. Impacts of Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Activity: East Asia and Western North Pacific, October H L Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 L H L H H L Upper tropospheric height anomalies associated with El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) periods. These height anomalies indicate anomalies in steering flow for tropical cyclones (TCs)., with more recurving TCs during EN and more straight runners during LN. This indicates that, for example, Taiwan (Korea) is more likely to be hit by TCs during LN (EN) years. NPS researchers have shownthat TC formation sites, tracks, and intensities are affected by EN and LN climate variations that are not accounted for in LTM climatologies. Figures from Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones: Impacts and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor: T. Murphree.

23. Impacts of Climate Variations on Afloat Operations: SE Asia, September WW3 Significant Wave Heights. Resolution: 1 deg spatial, 3 hr temporal. Original figures provided by James Dykes, NRL-SSC. Long Term Mean (1993-2002) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Anomaly 1997 (El Nino) Anomaly 1999 (La Nina)

24. Impacts of Climate Variations on Joint Operations: Straits of Taiwan, October Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission Yellow = marginal for indicated operation / mission *Conditions slightly improved for NE Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Slide from NPS climatology course

25. Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Western North Pacific, Winter Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean 15 cm/s Note LTM poleward coastal currents along China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea. From Ford and Murphree (2006) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

26. Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Western North Pacific, Winter Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During -SOI Periods 6 cm/s Note substantial strengthening with respect to LTM of coastal currents along China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Note: -SOI periods  El Nino periods From Ford and Murphree (2006) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

27. Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Arabian Gulf, Winter Upper Ocean Currents, Nov-Mar, Long Term Mean Note LTM inflow in Arabian Gulf, Gulf Of Oman. 1 cm/s From Ford and Murphree (2006) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

28. Use of Ocean Reanalysis to Develop Smart Climo Products: Arabian Gulf, Winter Upper Ocean Current Anomalies, Nov-Mar, During +SOI Periods Note reversal of LTM inflow in Gulf Of Oman. Note: +SOI periods  La Nino periods 3 cm/s From Ford and Murphree (2006) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

29. Use of Ocean Modeling to Develop Smart Climo Products: California Current System, Winter Model LN Currents Model EN Currents Figures from: Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations of the California Current System: Application of Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, September 2005. Advisors: Profs. T. Murphree and R. Tokmakian. a b Model LN Current Anomaly Model EN Current Anomaly c d Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

30. Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in Mission Planning Process Scenario: In the event of heightened tensions with North Korea, a squadron of F-15s from Elmendorf AFB, AK will need to deploy on short notice to Gwangju AB, ROK. Their refueling aircraft will be a pair of KC-10s from Travis AFB, CA. The expected launch window is July. The fighters will have to refuel 7 times en route and must avoid areas of solid cloud and moderate or greater turbulence. Task: Provide climatological support for mission planning. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Slide from NPS climatology course

31. Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in Mission Planning Process Mean Percent Total Cloud Cover From RTNEPH, July LTM, Base Period 1984-2001. Image sources: AF Combat Climatology Center: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/scis/ Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Climatological Impacts on F-15 Squadron Deployment Over North Pacific in July Slide from NPS climatology course • Launch / Divert Bases • Thunderstorms, lightning, low ceilings likely at Elmendorf AFB • Fog/stratus along coast likely to inhibit morning tanker take-offs from Travis AFB, CA, diverts on US west coast • Air Refueling • Clouds likely to impede refueling along storm track • Winds much weaker at flight level, thus decreasing turbulence risk

32. Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products in Mission Planning Process Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Slide from NPS climatology course Climatological Impacts on ISR Operations Over Korean Peninsula in July • Key climatological factors for Korea in July (see accompanying maps of SLP, Z850, chi, OLR, • clouds, and precipitation): • Low level low over China, high over North Pacific • Warm moist inflow from the south along boundary between low and high Reference for METOC Criteria : JP 3-59. Joint Doctrine, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedure for Meteorological and Oceanographic Support. 23 Mar. 1999.

33. Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process Manas IAP Incirlik AB Bagram AB Herat Kandahar Slide from NPS climatology course AR ‘B’ Map courtesy of the AFCCC Strategic Climatic Information Service Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 Scenario:Operation Thanksgiving Pain Mission: Provide climo support for night time aerial operations to destroy large terrorist training camp in Afghanistan. Missions will launch from bases in Turkey, Diego Garcia, and Afghanistan. Launch Window: 19-28 Nov 2004 Lead time: One month Diego Garcia

34. Slide from NPS climatology course Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

35. Slide from NPS climatology course Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13 June 2003 Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

36. Use of Intraseasonal Climate Anomalies and Forecasts in Mission Planning Process Manas IAP c x v c x v Incirlik AB c x v Bagram AB Herat Kandahar c x v Slide from NPS climatology course - More southerly storm track will result in possible takeoff delays for tankers leaving Incirlik - Tankers leaving Incirlik will see increased turbulence over Iraq and the northern Persian Gulf - Manas can expect increased precipitation - Bagram will see increased frequency of low ceilings and low visibility as well as crosswinds that may hinder Predator ops - Visibility for helos out of Kandahar will potentially be adversely affected by low clouds enroute; result: potential mission cancellation AR ‘B’ Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 No expected enroute weather impacts Expected enroute weather impacts to airframe may require mission rescheduling Enroute weather impacts exceed allowed criteria; reschedule mission c Ceiling Visibility Crosswinds c x v v x Diego Garcia

37. Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts Precip Fig From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan and Pakistan, 1-15 February 2005 • Precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff anomalies had large impacts on DoD operations. Led to combatant commanders requesting climate predictions for SWA. • Occurred during strong, persistent subsidence phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the eastern IO. • Investigated role of MJO and other climate variations in producing SWA climate anomalies. Winds, Moist Adv Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

38. Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts Wind & Specific Humidity Anomalies at 850 hPa When MJO Convective Component is in Eastern IO Convection • Note offshore wind and low moisture anomalies over and near SWA. • Opposite anomalies when convective component is in eastern IO. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

39. Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts Precipitation and Surface Temperature Anomalies When Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Convective Component is in Eastern IO • Due to circulation anomalies shown in prior slide, SWA tends to be drier • and cooler than normal. • Result of cool, dry continental air advected from Asia. • Opposite anomalies when convective component is in eastern IO. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

40. Responding to Combatant Commander Needs: Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies and Forecasts Anomalies and Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precipitation in SWA Above Normal Precip L H Below Normal Convection • Figure shows low level anomaly pattern during periods of above normal precip in SWA. • Pattern occurs during specific phases of El Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden Julian Oscillation, and/or North Atlantic Oscillation. Example: much of 2004-05 winter. • Phase reversal  pattern reversal  mechanism reversal  below normal SWA precip. • Mechanisms involve teleconnections from tropics and midlatitudes to SWA. • ENLN, NAO, and MJO predictable at leads of one week to six months  SWA precip may be predictable on these time scales. Next step: develop forecasting systems based on IO-W Pacific convection. From NPS thesis research by Capt D. Vorhees, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

41. Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate Anomalies: Characterization and Development of Forecasts MJO + El Nino + La Nina MJO + El Nino MJO + La Nina MJO Only From NPS thesis research by Capt A. Stepanek, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Prof. C. Wash. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06 EN or LN have large impacts on global response to MJO, and vice versa. Cause: interference between convective and subsidence components.

42. Development and Application of Military Smart Climatology Process This figures outlines a process for generating smart climatology products for military customers. For details of the process, and examples of its application, see the NPS thesis by Maj. Mark LaJoie (2006) and the next two slides (both from his thesis). From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

43. Development and Application of Military Smart Climatology Process Camp Lemonier U.S. Embassy http://maps.google.com/ http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_states.html “Noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) are conducted to assist the Department of State (DOS) in evacuating noncombatants, nonessential military personnel, selected host-nation citizens, and third country nationals whose lives are in danger from locations in a host foreign nation to an appropriate safe haven and/or the United States. NEOs usually involve swift insertions of a force, temporary occupation of an objective, and a planned withdrawal upon completion of the mission.” JP3-07.5, “Joint Tactics, Techniques and Procedures for Noncombatant Evacuation Operations” • Scenario/Assumptions: Intel estimates indicate that the potential exists for a military coup in Ethiopia, which would necessitate the rapid evacuation of 150+ embassy personnel, plus an equal number of U.S. civilian expatriates (students, businesspeople). The USCENTCOM METOC (USAF O3) is tasked to develop a climatological assessment for a possible NEO during the Oct-Nov timeframe. A NEO CONPLAN is in development. The O3 recently read an NPS thesis discussing climate variations and military impacts in the HOA, and decides to use it as a guide for the assessment. • Intermediate Staging Base (ISB)/Safe Haven: Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, alternate USN ship. • Forces: MH53 Pave Lows, C130, RQ1-B Predator UAVs plus tankers & ground operations support From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

44. Development and Application of Military Smart Climatology Process Typical:October–November is the “short rains” season in the Horn of Africa, characterized by extensive cloud decks, showers and isolated, afternoon thunderstorms. For typical years in the Addis Ababa area, moderate impacts to collections and RQ1B operations are assessed in October and early November, improving to mostly favorable after the mid-November end of the rainy season. RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier are assessed as favorable overall, with occasional impacts from afternoon crosswinds and extreme afternoon temperatures exceeding operational thresholds. El Nino:A strong El Nino event would tend to increase showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity in October-November. ISR impacts will tend to worse than in the typical year. Assessment for ISR is moderate to occasionally unfavorable. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. La Nina:A strong La Nina event would tend to suppress showers, cloud cover and thunderstorm activity during Oct-Nov. ISR impacts will tend to general improvement over typical years. Assessment for ISR is the same as for the typical year, but expect thunderstorm and shower frequency to decrease. Assessment of RQ1B launch and recovery operations out of Camp Lemonier remains the same as in typical years. Legend • Cloud cover 2. Precipitation 3. Winds 4. Temperature From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF; 2006; advisors: Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K. Pfeiffer. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

45. Characteristics of a Smart Climo Support System • A. Good System • ACMES-like capability with CDC access and analysis capability • B. Better System • Same as A but also: • 1. use of climate forecasts to produce forecasts of military • impacts • 2. fuzzy logic/integrated environment (atmosphere-ocean • terrain-space), just-in-time model runs • 3. WxFX impacts climatology • 4. hypercube archival with fast retrieval/display • C. Best System • Same as B but also: • 1. simplified interface • 2. environmental mode identification (e.g., fuzzy clustering • algorithms) • 3. improved input to downstream applications Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

46. Some Research and Development Issues to be Resolved • What additional long term data and proxy climo data needs to be accessed and/or generated? Possibilities include collecting existing cloud, precip, climate index, and space climate data sets; using model based downscaling to create higher space-time resolution climo data. • What analysis tools need be collected, adapted and/or developed to readily and consistently generate relevant quantities (e.g., correlations, statistical significance, clusters). • What are the critical climate regimes and variations that need to be addressed for specific regions and types of operations? • How do environmental parameter clusters map to environmental impact clusters? • The main challenge is to bring the pieces together to focus on • war fighter needs. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

47. Some Research and Development Issues to be Resolved A variety of existing methods for enhancing traditional LTM climatologies need to be tested and compared. Ocean examples: 1. Dynamic MODAS 2. Statistical modeling 3. Ocean reanalyses 4. Ocean model based downscaling 5. Long term OGCM simulations LTM Climatology Dynamic MODAS In Situ Data Other Smart Climo Products based on ocean reanalysis, statistical modeling, downscaling, long term simulations, etc. Ocean Temperature, depth vs. latitude cross sections From Feldmeier (2005), adapted from Fox et al. (2002) Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

48. Reasons to Pursue Smart Climo Support for War Fighters 1. Requirements for METOC support include smart climo support. Modern advances in climate science and operational climatology have left DoD in the dust. 2. Large amounts of climo data are available but unused by DoD 3. Tested climatological monitoring, analysis, modeling, and forecasting methods are available but unused by DoD. 4. Proven supporting computing technologies are available: a. Distributed resources b. Fuzzy logic/analysis c. Computing clusters d. Joint rules databases e. Web services f. Infrastructure to link models for climo runs 5. Recently developed TDAs and OR applications can handle, and can be improved by smart climo inputs. 6. The time is right to leverage developments. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

49. Outline of Smart Climatology Prototype Development Project Goal Develop state-of-the-art climate products for operational commanders, and METOC personnel, and the means to distribute those products. Need Climatologic products and services for military operations need to take full advantage of recent developments in observations, reanalysis, downscaling, and the diagnosis, monitoring, and forecasting of climate. First Step Collaborate with METOC personnel and war fighter customers to Identify high priority and feasible ocean climate products and services. This involves identifying the highest priority geographic regions, time scales, operation types, weapons systems, environmental phenomena, etc. Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06

50. Outline of Smart Climatology Prototype Development Project • Data and Methods • Develop observational climatologies based on existing observational and reanalysis data. • a. Select ocean observational and reanalysis data sets. • b. Develop climatologies using observations and reanalyses for at least the last 30 years. Do this in order to emphasize satellite-era data, to represent interannual and decadal events, and to capture recent climate trends. • c. Develop event-specific climatologies and indices, including composites and indices that describe characteristic features of regional and global events (seasonal transitions, climate variations). Smart Climo, Murphree@nps.edu, Jun 06