atmospheric chemistry from air pollution to global change and back
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ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY: FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK. Daniel J. Jacob. NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN U.S. COUNTIES VIOLATING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY STANDARDS, 1999. Carbon monoxide (CO). EPA [2001]. Lead. Nitrogen dioxide. 124 ppbv. Ozone (O 3 ). 84 ppbv.

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number of people living in u s counties violating national air quality standards 1999
NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN U.S. COUNTIES VIOLATING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY STANDARDS, 1999

Carbon

monoxide (CO)

EPA [2001]

Lead

Nitrogen

dioxide

124 ppbv

Ozone (O3)

84 ppbv

Particles < 10 mm

(PM10)

    • Particles < 2.5 mm
  • (PM2.5)

Sulfur dioxide

(SO2)

Any pollutant

slide3
MEAN NUMBER OF SUMMER DAYS (1980-1998) EXCEEDING THE U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD (84 ppbv, 8-hour average)

EPA/AIRS data [Lin et al., 2001]

sources of tropospheric ozone

O2 + hn

STRATOSPHERE

Stratospheric ozone

SOURCES OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE

Tropopause (8-18 km)

TROPOSPHERE

?

Complex non-linear chemistry

Lightning

?

hn

hn, H2O

Nitrogen oxides (NOx)

CO, Hydrocarbons

?

Ozone (O3)

Hydroxyl (OH)

The Pacman of the atmosphere!

physics

chemistry

biology

Fires

Biosphere

Human

activity

Ocean

slide6

TRANSPACIFIC TRANSPORT OF ASIAN DUST

April 1998 event

R. Husar

climate forcing by air pollutants global radiative forcing of climate 1750 present ipcc 2001
CLIMATE FORCING BY AIR POLLUTANTSGLOBAL RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE, 1750-present [IPCC, 2001]

POLLUTANT-RELATED

black carbon a major greenhouse aerosol
BLACK CARBON: A MAJOR “GREENHOUSE” AEROSOL

DIESEL

DOMESTIC

COAL BURNING

BIOMASS

BURNING

Chin et al. [2000]

increase in tropospheric ozone background from intercontinental transport of pollution
INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC OZONE BACKGROUNDFROM INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT OF POLLUTION

1870-1990 ozone trend at European mountain sites [Marenco et al.,1994]

Preindustrial ozone assumed in IPCC models

}

slide10
PRESENT OZONE BACKGROUND IS SIZABLE INCREMENT TOWARDS VIOLATION OF U.S. AIR QUALITY STANDARDS(even more so in Europe!)

Europe

(8-h avg.)

Europe

(seasonal)

U.S.

(8-h avg.)

U.S.

(1-h avg.)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ppbv

preindustrial

present

background

slide11
EFFECT OF NORTH AMERICAN SOURCESON EXCEEDANCES OF EUROPEAN AIR QUALITY STANDARD (55 ppbv, 8-h average)

GEOS-CHEM model

results, summer 1997

Number of

exceedance days

(out of 92)

# of exceedance days that

would not have happened

in absence of U.S. emissions

Li et al. [2002]

slide12
Growth of Asian emissions over next decades will increase role of background for ozone air quality in U.S.

Anthropogenic

NOx emissions

[IPCC, 2001]

2000

2020

“Optimistic” IPCC

scenario:

OECD, U.S. down 20%

Asia up 50%

109 atoms N cm-2 s-1

what does the future hold future emission scenarios from ipcc 2001
WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?Future emission scenarios from IPCC [2001]

A1, A2, B1, B2: different socioeconomic story lines

NOx

A2: “dirty world”

B2: “clean world”

SO2

slide14
FUTURE EMISSIONS MAY BE LESS THAN PRESENT FORECASTS IF PUSH IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLD

Streets et al. [2001]

getting a big bang for the buck controlling methane emissions
GETTING A BIG BANG FOR THE BUCK:controlling methane emissions
  • A 50% reduction in anthropogenic methane emissions would:
    • yield a fast negative global radiation forcing of 0.37 W m-2
    • (-0.30 W m-2 from methane, -0.07 W m-2 from ozone)
    • decrease the incidence of ozone > 80 ppbv in surface air
    • over U.S. by more than 50%
          • [A.M. Fiore, GEOS-CHEM model results, 2002]

Recent methane trend

Historical methane trend

ipcc projection of future methane emissions
IPCC PROJECTION OF FUTURE METHANE EMISSIONS

Can we try to decrease methane emissions instead?

future monitoring of emissions by inverse modeling of atmospheric observations
FUTURE MONITORING OF EMISSIONS BY INVERSE MODELING OF ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS

Assimilated

meteorological

data

3-D CHEMICAL

TRANSPORT MODEL

Aerosol

and chemical

processes

INVERSE MODEL

A PRIORI

EMISSIONS

(from process model)

  • OBSERVATIONS
  • surface
  • satellite
  • aircraft

OPTIMIZED

EMISSIONS

global mapping of no x emissions from space gome observations of nitrogen dioxide july 1996
GLOBAL MAPPING OF NOx EMISSIONS FROM SPACE:GOME observations of nitrogen dioxide (July 1996)

Martin et al. [2002]

GOME

GEOS-CHEM

model

slide19
NASA/TRACE-P AIRCRAFT MISSION TO THE PACIFIC RIM(MARCH-APRIL 2001)Quantifying the export of Asian pollution

Satellite data:

MOPITT (CO)

TOMS (ozone)

SEAWIFS,

TOMS (aerosols)

3-D chemical transport

model forecasts

DC-8 and P-3 aircraft

Flight tracks were designed to optimize

model testing and satellite validation

integration of aircraft satellites and models quantifying the asian dust source in trace p
INTEGRATION OF AIRCRAFT, SATELLITES, AND MODELS:quantifying the Asian dust source in TRACE-P

DC-8

flight

track

DC8 flight track

and TOMS absorbing aerosol index

Dust forecast for 3/21/01 (Carmichael, U. Iowa)

SEAWIFS visible image

SEAWIFS aerosol optical depth

future satellite measurements of tropospheric chemistry
FUTURE SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS OF TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY

2002 2002 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004

TERRA

ENVISAT

AURA

MODIS/

MISR

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