Atmospheric chemistry from air pollution to global change and back
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ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY: FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK. Daniel J. Jacob. NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN U.S. COUNTIES VIOLATING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY STANDARDS, 1999. Carbon monoxide (CO). EPA [2001]. Lead. Nitrogen dioxide. 124 ppbv. Ozone (O 3 ). 84 ppbv.

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Atmospheric chemistry from air pollution to global change and back l.jpg
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY:FROM AIR POLLUTION TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND BACK

Daniel J. Jacob


Number of people living in u s counties violating national air quality standards 1999 l.jpg
NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN U.S. COUNTIES VIOLATING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY STANDARDS, 1999

Carbon

monoxide (CO)

EPA [2001]

Lead

Nitrogen

dioxide

124 ppbv

Ozone (O3)

84 ppbv

Particles < 10 mm

(PM10)

  • Particles < 2.5 mm

  • (PM2.5)

  • Sulfur dioxide

    (SO2)

    Any pollutant


    Slide3 l.jpg
    MEAN NUMBER OF SUMMER DAYS (1980-1998) EXCEEDING THE U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD (84 ppbv, 8-hour average)

    EPA/AIRS data [Lin et al., 2001]


    Sources of tropospheric ozone l.jpg

    O OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD 2 + hn

    STRATOSPHERE

    Stratospheric ozone

    SOURCES OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE

    Tropopause (8-18 km)

    TROPOSPHERE

    ?

    Complex non-linear chemistry

    Lightning

    ?

    hn

    hn, H2O

    Nitrogen oxides (NOx)

    CO, Hydrocarbons

    ?

    Ozone (O3)

    Hydroxyl (OH)

    The Pacman of the atmosphere!

    physics

    chemistry

    biology

    Fires

    Biosphere

    Human

    activity

    Ocean


    Large scale pollution in the tropics biomass burning l.jpg
    LARGE-SCALE POLLUTION IN THE TROPICS: OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD BIOMASS BURNING


    Slide6 l.jpg

    TRANSPACIFIC TRANSPORT OF ASIAN DUST OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD

    April 1998 event

    R. Husar


    Climate forcing by air pollutants global radiative forcing of climate 1750 present ipcc 2001 l.jpg
    CLIMATE FORCING BY AIR POLLUTANTS OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD GLOBAL RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE, 1750-present [IPCC, 2001]

    POLLUTANT-RELATED


    Black carbon a major greenhouse aerosol l.jpg
    BLACK CARBON: A MAJOR “GREENHOUSE” AEROSOL OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD

    DIESEL

    DOMESTIC

    COAL BURNING

    BIOMASS

    BURNING

    Chin et al. [2000]


    Increase in tropospheric ozone background from intercontinental transport of pollution l.jpg
    INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC OZONE BACKGROUND OZONE AIR QUALITY STANDARD FROM INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT OF POLLUTION

    1870-1990 ozone trend at European mountain sites [Marenco et al.,1994]

    Preindustrial ozone assumed in IPCC models

    }


    Slide10 l.jpg
    PRESENT OZONE BACKGROUND IS SIZABLE INCREMENT TOWARDS VIOLATION OF U.S. AIR QUALITY STANDARDS(even more so in Europe!)

    Europe

    (8-h avg.)

    Europe

    (seasonal)

    U.S.

    (8-h avg.)

    U.S.

    (1-h avg.)

    0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ppbv

    preindustrial

    present

    background


    Slide11 l.jpg
    EFFECT OF NORTH AMERICAN SOURCES VIOLATION OF U.S. AIR QUALITY STANDARDSON EXCEEDANCES OF EUROPEAN AIR QUALITY STANDARD (55 ppbv, 8-h average)

    GEOS-CHEM model

    results, summer 1997

    Number of

    exceedance days

    (out of 92)

    # of exceedance days that

    would not have happened

    in absence of U.S. emissions

    Li et al. [2002]


    Slide12 l.jpg
    Growth of Asian emissions over next decades will increase role of background for ozone air quality in U.S.

    Anthropogenic

    NOx emissions

    [IPCC, 2001]

    2000

    2020

    “Optimistic” IPCC

    scenario:

    OECD, U.S. down 20%

    Asia up 50%

    109 atoms N cm-2 s-1


    What does the future hold future emission scenarios from ipcc 2001 l.jpg
    WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD? role of background for ozone air quality in U.S.Future emission scenarios from IPCC [2001]

    A1, A2, B1, B2: different socioeconomic story lines

    NOx

    A2: “dirty world”

    B2: “clean world”

    SO2


    Slide14 l.jpg
    FUTURE EMISSIONS MAY BE LESS THAN PRESENT FORECASTS IF PUSH IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLD

    Streets et al. [2001]


    Getting a big bang for the buck controlling methane emissions l.jpg
    GETTING A BIG BANG FOR THE BUCK: IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLDcontrolling methane emissions

    • A 50% reduction in anthropogenic methane emissions would:

      • yield a fast negative global radiation forcing of 0.37 W m-2

      • (-0.30 W m-2 from methane, -0.07 W m-2 from ozone)

      • decrease the incidence of ozone > 80 ppbv in surface air

      • over U.S. by more than 50%

        • [A.M. Fiore, GEOS-CHEM model results, 2002]

    Recent methane trend

    Historical methane trend


    Ipcc projection of future methane emissions l.jpg
    IPCC PROJECTION OF FUTURE METHANE EMISSIONS IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLD

    Can we try to decrease methane emissions instead?


    Future monitoring of emissions by inverse modeling of atmospheric observations l.jpg
    FUTURE MONITORING OF EMISSIONS IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLDBY INVERSE MODELING OF ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS

    Assimilated

    meteorological

    data

    3-D CHEMICAL

    TRANSPORT MODEL

    Aerosol

    and chemical

    processes

    INVERSE MODEL

    A PRIORI

    EMISSIONS

    (from process model)

    • OBSERVATIONS

    • surface

    • satellite

    • aircraft

    OPTIMIZED

    EMISSIONS


    Global mapping of no x emissions from space gome observations of nitrogen dioxide july 1996 l.jpg
    GLOBAL MAPPING OF NO IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLDx EMISSIONS FROM SPACE:GOME observations of nitrogen dioxide (July 1996)

    Martin et al. [2002]

    GOME

    GEOS-CHEM

    model


    Slide19 l.jpg
    NASA/TRACE-P AIRCRAFT MISSION TO THE PACIFIC RIM IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLD(MARCH-APRIL 2001)Quantifying the export of Asian pollution

    Satellite data:

    MOPITT (CO)

    TOMS (ozone)

    SEAWIFS,

    TOMS (aerosols)

    3-D chemical transport

    model forecasts

    DC-8 and P-3 aircraft

    Flight tracks were designed to optimize

    model testing and satellite validation


    Integration of aircraft satellites and models quantifying the asian dust source in trace p l.jpg
    INTEGRATION OF AIRCRAFT, SATELLITES, AND MODELS: IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLDquantifying the Asian dust source in TRACE-P

    DC-8

    flight

    track

    DC8 flight track

    and TOMS absorbing aerosol index

    Dust forecast for 3/21/01 (Carmichael, U. Iowa)

    SEAWIFS visible image

    SEAWIFS aerosol optical depth


    Future satellite measurements of tropospheric chemistry l.jpg
    FUTURE SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS IS MADE FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY IN DEVELOPING WORLDOF TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY

    2002 2002 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004

    TERRA

    ENVISAT

    AURA

    MODIS/

    MISR


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