2003 retail real estate capital and finance conference
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2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference ... Adjunct Professor of Real Estate. Real Estate Institute. New York University, New York, NY ...

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The State of the Economy – Perspectives On a Glass Filled to the Half Way Mark

IntroductionHUGH KELLYAdjunct Professor of Real Estate Real Estate Institute New York University, New York, NY

SpeakerMARK ZANDIChief EconomistEconomy.comWest Chester, PA

2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference


A Better Christmas

Christmas Core Retail Sales Growth

% change year ago

November and December

Source: Census, Economy.com


Ample Household Cashflow

Real Household Cashflow

% Change Year Ago

Source: Economy.com


Tax Payments

Billions $ (L)

Effective

Tax Rate (R)

Source: BEA


The Home Has Become a Cash Machine

Cash Raised via Mortgage Borrowing

Billions $

Source: Economy.com

Housing

Turnover

Cash-Out Refi

Home Equity


Retail Price Deflation

Core Retail Prices,

% change year ago

3-month moving average

Source: BEA


Jobs, Millions

Source: BLS


Profits

Billions $ (L)

Nonfinancial Businesses

Source: BEA

Margin (R)


Reasons for Optimism

Job Growth (R)

Initial Claims

Ths. (L)

Source: BLS


Near-Term Outlook% Change Year Ago

Real GDP

Employment


Potential Housing Market Problems

Buffalo

Detroit

Portland

Syracuse

Boston

Milwaukee

Nassau

Pittsburgh

Bergen-Passaic

Salt Lake/Provo

Cleveland

Newark

San Francisco

Indiannapolis

Monmouth

Columbus

San Jose

Las Vegas

Jersey City

St. Louis

Los Angeles

Louisville

Orange County

Baltimore

Tulsa

Washington DC

San Diego

El Paso

Corpus Christi

Tampa

Ft. Lauderdale

New Orleans

Miami

Potential Bubbles

Ft. Myers

Potentially Overbuilt

Naples


2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference

Personal Bankruptcy Rate

Per Thousand Households

Sources: US District Courts, Census Bureau


2003 Retail Real Estate Capital and Finance Conference


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