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The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emission reduction Case of Finland Antti Lehtilä, Ilkka Savolainen & Sanna Syri VTT Processes Energy Systems http://www.climtech.vtt.fi The CLIMTECH Programme (1999–2003) General purposes:

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The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emission reduction Case of Finland

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The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emission reduction case of finland l.jpg

The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emission reductionCase of Finland

Antti Lehtilä, Ilkka Savolainen & Sanna SyriVTT ProcessesEnergy Systems

http://www.climtech.vtt.fi


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The CLIMTECH Programme (1999–2003)

  • General purposes:

    • Investigate the needs for technology developmentrelated to greenhouse gas emission reduction

    • Disseminate information on technology, promote communication between industry and research community

  • Main subject areas:

    • Renewable energy and distributed energy production

    • Energy efficiency in production and end-use

    • Non-CO2 greenhouse gases

    • Capture and utilization of CO2

    • Development of models and systems

    • Commercialization

  • Final phase included an integrating scenario study based on the assessments of individual projects:

    • The role of technology in GHG reduction until 2030


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Overall structure of the energy system model


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Scenarios studied

  • Climate change is reality – emissions have to be reduced

  • Focus of the scenarios:

    • The time beyond Kyoto until 2030

    • All six greenhouse gases of the Kyoto protocol

    • Potential and cost-efficiency of advanced technologies

  • Emission reduction targets in 2030:

    • Base 20% below Kyoto target, variants 10% and 30%

    • Kyoto scenario with constant Kyoto target

  • Two technology futures:

    • Conventional technology development

    • Optimistic (or boosted) development

  • Sources for technology projections:

    • Projections of the CLIMTECH technology studies

    • VTT’s Energy Visions 2030 for Finland


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Examples of technology projections for electricity generation


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Projections for climate change impacts

  • Based on study made under the CLIMTECH programme

    • HadCM3 general circulation model

    • IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2

  • The impacts in 2030 were based on projected changes between periods 1961–1990 and 2021–2050


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Ceasing growth in primary energy consumption, CO2-neutral energy becoming dominant


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Increasing diversification in both the sources and uses of bioenergy


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Electricity generation from renewable energy sources in key role


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First steps into hydrogen economywithin transportation


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Development of greenhouse gas emissionsin the Kyoto and 20% reduction scenarios


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Contribution of various technologies to emission reductions in theOptimistic scenarios in 2030


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Direct cost impact of emission reduction


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Conclusions

  • Technology development can significantly reduceemission reduction costs

  • Early R&D investments yield largest long-term benefits

  • Bioenergy and wind technologies focal in Finland

  • Promoting the use of new technology equally important

  • Benefits from R&D can be highly multiplicative:

    • Cost savings in domestic emission reduction

    • Good prospects for increasing technology exports

    • Improved balance of trade in emission allowances – further boost in domestic technology market

    • Substantial reductions in other air pollutants


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