Is TAP(I) Still an Option
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Is TAP(I) Still an Option An Afghan Prospective By: Nasir A. Andisha Asian Development Bank Study Background TAP officially began 30 May 2002 steering committee of the ministers of oil and gas (Mines) from the three countries

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Is TAP(I) Still an Option

An Afghan Prospective

By: Nasir A. Andisha



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Background

  • TAP officially began 30 May 2002

  • steering committee of the ministers of oil and gas (Mines) from the three countries

  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) as development partner and to grant regional technical assistance, 16th Sept.2002


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ADB’s Role

  • Feasibility study, 2002- updated 2005

  • Risk mitigation and market study(Pak gas)

  • Security challenges, 2005 report by ADB

  • Framework and Model Agreements


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PlayersProducer

  • Turkmenistan: limited export options

  • LNG not an option, build liquefaction facilities, ports and tankers, transit routs

  • Pipelines: Westward pipeline, complication of Caspian's offshore waters

  • TAP(I) Pipeline, foreseeable future option


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Consumer IPakistan

  • Expected 6-7% GDP growth, can absorb the exported 30bm3/yr

  • Natural gas is 53% of energy mix natural

  • Gas production is expected to decline over the next 15-25 year period, while demand is expected to increase

  • TAP(I) and IPI competitive to LNG option

  • Pakistan Energy yearbook.2005


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IndiaConsumer II

  • India GDP growth 9.4%

  • Increase in Natural Gas consumption 12.77bcm 1991 to 31.33bcm 2005-6

  • Focus on energy security policy (joins the project

  • End of this month)

  • Energy Security Division in the Ministry of External Affairs- India


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Afghanistan High level political Commitment toward the Policy of Regional Coop.


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National Priority projectsRegional Cooperation

  • Ring road- lowering transit time (regional Project)

  • Purchase and transit of Electricity (regional Project)

  • Counter Narcotics/Smuggling (regional Project)

  • TAP(I) Pipeline (regional Project)

  • ECT membership- Dec 08


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Govt. AfghanistanResponsible Agencies

  • Ministry of Mines, focal point HoD in (StC)

  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Newly established, Economic Cooperation Division, Directorate of Trade,Transit and Foreign Investment (StC member)

  • Secretariat of Afghanistan National Development Strategy & office of senior economic advisor for the President of IRA. (Supervisor)


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TAP(I) in National Development Strategy

Project Description Current Status Bottlenecks Action Required


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Challenges

  • The process of discussion too slow and dominated by regional politics

  • Turkmen commitment and status of reserves.

  • Deterioration of security along the proposed line.

  • ADB-$20M Security plan

  • Private sector interest

  • Shell, Indian private sector ?


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Alternative Route

Green lines are electricity

Grids currently under cons

-traction


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The momentum

  • Next Steering Committee Meeting 19 Nov

  • India’s official membership

  • India-Pakistan energy security needs

  • Central Asia-South Asia Regional Coop


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Thank you

  • Sources:

  • www.mfa.gov.af

  • www.ands.gov.af

  • www.adb.orghttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Pakistan/Background.html

  • http://petroleum.nic.in


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