Probabilities and proportions
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Probabilities and Proportions. Lotto. I am offered two lotto cards: Card 1: has numbers Card 2: has numbers Which card should I take so that I have the greatest chance of winning lotto?. Roulette.

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Presentation Transcript

Lotto
Lotto

I am offered two lotto cards:

  • Card 1: has numbers

  • Card 2: has numbers

    Which card should I take so that I have the greatest chance of winning lotto?


Roulette
Roulette

In the casino I wait at the roulette wheel until I see a run of at least five reds in a row.

I then bet heavily on a black.

I am now more likely to win.


Coin tossing
Coin Tossing

I am about to toss a coin 20 times.

What do you expect to happen?

Suppose that the first four tosses have been heads and there are no tails so far. What do you expect will have happened by the end of the 20 tosses ?


Coin tossing1
Coin Tossing

  • Option A

    • Still expect to get 10 heads and 10 tails. Since there are already 4 heads, now expect to get 6 heads from the remaining 16 tosses. In the next few tosses, expect to get more tails than heads.

  • Option B

    • There are 16 tosses to go. For these 16 tosses I expect 8 heads and 8 tails. Now expect to get 12 heads and 8 tails for the 20 throws.


Tv game show
TV Game Show

  • In a TV game show, a car will be given away.

    • 3 keys are put on the table, with only one of them being the right key. The 3 finalists are given a chance to choose one key and the one who chooses the right key will take the car.

    • If you were one of the finalists, would you prefer to be the 1st, 2nd or last to choose a key?


Let s make a deal game show
Let’s Make a Deal Game Show

  • You pick one of three doors

    • two have booby prizes behind them

    • one has lots of money behind it

  • The game show host then shows you a booby prize behind one of the other doors

  • Then he asks you “Do you want to change doors?”

    • Should you??! (Does it matter??!)

  • See the following website:

  • http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/LetsMakeaDeal.html


Matching birthdays
Matching Birthdays

  • In a room with 23 people what is the probability that at least two of them will have the same birthday?

  • Answer: .5073 or 50.73% chance!!!!!

  • How about 30?

  • .7063 or 71% chance!

  • How about 40?

  • .8912 or 89% chance!

  • How about 50?

  • .9704 or 97% chance!


Probability
Probability

What is Chapter 3 trying to do?

  • Introduce us to basic ideas about probabilities:

    • what they are and where they come from

    • simple probability models

    • conditional probabilities

    • independent events

  • Teach us how to calculate probabilities:

    • through tables of counts and probability tables for independent events


Probability1
Probability

I toss a fair coin (where fair means ‘equally likely outcomes’)

  • What are the possible outcomes?

    Head and tail

  • What is the probability it will turn up heads?

    1/2

    I choose a person at random and check which eye she/he winks with

  • What are the possible outcomes?

    Left and right

  • What is the probability they wink with their left eye?

    ?????


What are probabilities
What are Probabilities?

  • A probability is a number between 0 & 1 that quantifies uncertainty

  • A probability of 0 identifies impossibility

  • A probability of 1 identifies certainty


Where do probabilities come from
Where do probabilities come from?

  • Probabilities from models:

    The probability of getting a four when a fair dice is rolled is

    1/6 (0.1667 or 16.7%)


Where do probabilities come from1
Where do probabilities come from?

  • Probabilities from data

    • In a survey conducted by students in a STAT 110 course there were 348 WSU students sampled.

    • 212 of these students stated they regularly drink alcohol.

    • The estimated probability that a randomly chosen Winona State students drinks alcohol is

      212/348 (0.609, 60.9%)


Where do probabilities come from2
Where do probabilities come from?

  • Subjective Probabilities

    • The probability that there will be another outbreak of ebola in Africa within the next year is 0.1.

    • The probability of rain in the next 24 hours is very high. Perhaps the weather forecaster might say a there is a 70% chance of rain.

    • A doctor may state your chance of successful treatment.


Simple probability models
Simple Probability Models

Terminology:

  • a random experiment is an experiment whose outcome cannot be predicted

    • E.g. Draw a card from a well-shuffled pack

  • a sample space is the collection of all possible outcomes

    • 52 outcomes (AH, 2H, 3H, …, KH,…, AS, …,KS)


Simple probability models1
Simple Probability Models

  • an event is a collection of outcomes

    • E.g. A = card drawn is a heart

  • an event occurs if any outcome making up that event occurs

    • drawing a 5 of hearts

  • the complement of an event A is denoted as , it contains all outcomes not in AEg = card drawn is not a heart

    = card drawn is a spade, club or diamond


Simple probability models2

For equally likely outcomes, and a given event A:

Number of outcomes in A

P(A) =

Total number of outcomes

Simple Probability Models

“The probability that an event A occurs”

is written in shorthand as P(A).


Conditional probability
Conditional Probability

  • The sample space is reduced.

  • Key words that indicate conditional probability are:

    “given that”, “of those”, “if …”, “assuming that”


Conditional probability1
Conditional Probability

“The probability of event A occurring given that event B has already occurred”

is written in shorthand as P(A|B)


1 heart disease

Sex

Age

Male

Female

Total

< 45

79

13

92

45 - 64

772

216

988

65 - 74

1081

499

1580

> 74

1795

2176

3971

Total

3727

2904

6631

1. Heart Disease

In 1996, 6631 Minnesotans died from coronary heart disease. The numbers of deaths classified by age and gender are:


1 heart disease1

Sex

Age

Male

Female

Total

< 45

79

13

92

45 - 64

772

216

988

65 - 74

1081

499

1580

> 74

1795

2176

3971

Total

3727

2904

6631

1. Heart Disease

Let

A be the event of being under 45

B be the event of being male

C be the event of being over 64


1 heart disease2

Sex

Age

Male

Female

Total

< 45

79

13

92

45 - 64

772

216

988

65 - 74

1081

499

1580

> 74

1795

2176

3971

Total

3727

2904

6631

1. Heart Disease

Find the probability that a randomly chosen member of this population at the time of death was:

  • under 45

  • P(A) = 92/6631 = 0.0139


1 heart disease3

Sex

Age

Male

Female

Total

< 45

79

13

92

45 - 64

772

216

988

65 - 74

1081

499

1580

> 74

1795

2176

3971

Total

3727

2904

6631

1. Heart Disease

Find the probability that a randomly chosen member of this population at the time of death was:

  • male assuming that the person was younger than 45.


Heart disease

Sex

Age

Male

Female

Total

< 45

79

13

92

45 - 64

772

216

988

65 - 74

1081

499

1580

> 74

1795

2176

3971

Total

3727

2904

6631

Heart Disease

Find the probability that a randomly chosen member of this population at the time of death was:

  • male given that the person was younger than 45.

  • P(B|A) = 79/92 = 0.8587


1 heart disease4

Sex

Age

Male

Female

Total

< 45

79

13

92

45 - 64

772

216

988

65 - 74

1081

499

1580

> 74

1795

2176

3971

Total

3727

2904

6631

1. Heart Disease

Find the probability that a randomly chosen member of this population at the time of death was:

c) male and was over 64.

  • P(B and C)=(1081+1795)/6631=2876/6631


1 heart disease5

Sex

Age

Male

Female

Total

< 45

79

13

92

45 - 64

772

216

988

65 - 74

1081

499

1580

> 74

1795

2176

3971

Total

3727

2904

6631

1. Heart Disease

Find the probability that a randomly chosen member of this population at the time of death was:

d) over 64 given they were female.


1 heart disease6

Sex

Age

Male

Female

Total

< 45

79

13

92

45 - 64

772

216

988

65 - 74

1081

499

1580

> 74

1795

2176

3971

Total

3727

2904

6631

1. Heart Disease

Find the probability that a randomly chosen member of this population at the time of death was:

d) over 64 given they were female.

  • P(C|B) = (499+2176)/2904 = 0.9211


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