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A View from Below the Waterline PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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A View from Below the Waterline. Gary Phillips, Director, TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity for the OneSAF Users Conference. Models are mathematical approximations of the real world. Real World. Model Representation. They are not a duplication of the real world !.

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A View from Below the Waterline

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A View from Below the Waterline

Gary Phillips, Director, TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity for the OneSAF Users Conference


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Models are mathematical approximations of the real world

Real World

Model

Representation

They are not a duplication of the real world !

Critical decisions are made based on “insights” from approximations of the real world.


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“Making Sausage”

Algorithms

Results

Data

1101010010010011101110010101011111010100

+

=

It all has to be as “right” as possible to produce results that are usable for the intended purpose.

Does the result reflect our experiences in the real world ?


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How Right Does It Have to Be?

  • For training the skills learned using M&S must be directly transferable to the real world.

    • The larger the delta from a duplication of the physics and human factors present in the real world the less value the M&S has a training tool.

    • Properly represented physics are less important the higher the echelon being trained.

  • For combat developments the results must be representative of likely outcomes or provide relative values for decisions.

    • Accurate physical models and the algorithms that define the interaction of entities are critical.


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Representation of Irregular Warfare

  • Relationships and complexity

  • Structural complexity – task is complex, “mechanical”

  • Interactive complexity – acting causes changes, alters complexity, “organic”

Simply putting entities in “man-dresses” using AK-47s and IEDS in a simulation is not Irregular Warfare.


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The Challenge

IW

MCO

Structural Complexity

Interactive Complexity

Its all about the “arrows”

1101010010010011101110010101011111010100

Love

Fear

Honor

Duty

Hate


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Operational Environment Variables

Political

Economic

Military

Social

Infrastructure

Physical

Environment

Information

Time

“Operational variables describe not only the military aspects of an operational environment but also the population’s influence on it. Joint planners analyze the operational environment in terms of six interrelated operational variables: political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure. To these variables Army doctrine adds two more: physical environment and time. As a set, these operational variables are often abbreviated as PMESII-PT.” FM 3.0


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