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Mitigating Environmental Emissions from the Urban Transport System Ram M. Shrestha S.C. Bhattacharya Nazrul Islam N. T. Kim Oanh Asian Regional Research Programme in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC) Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand Cities Covered City Profile ERI IGIDR

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Mitigating environmental emissions from the urban transport system l.jpg

Mitigating Environmental Emissions from the Urban Transport System

Ram M. Shrestha

S.C. Bhattacharya

Nazrul Islam

N. T. Kim Oanh

Asian Regional Research Programme in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC)

AsianInstituteofTechnology, Thailand

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Cities covered l.jpg
Cities Covered System

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


City profile l.jpg
City Profile System

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Project network l.jpg

ERI System

IGIDR

ITB

AIT

SATMP

DOSTE

Project Network

AIT—Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand

DOSTE– Department of Science, Technology and Environment, Vietnam Prof. Nguyen Thien Nhan

ERI—Energy Research Institute, China Dr. Zhou Dadi

IGIDR—Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research Prof. Jyoti Parikh

ITB—Institut Technologi Bandung, Indonesia Dr. Tatang H. Soerawidjaja

SATMP—Society for the Advancement of Technology in the Philippines, Philippines Dr. Joy V. Abrenica

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Study Objectives System

  • To analyze the demand for urban transport services and associated energy demand and environmental emissions;

  • To analyze and select the technical options for energy efficiency improvement and mitigation of GHGs and other harmful emissions from the urban transport system; and

  • To identify and rank the barriers to the introduction of selected technical options to mitigate environmental emissions from the urban transport system.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Travel Demand, Energy Demand and Associated Environmental Emissions

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Projection of Travel Demand Emissions

GDP Growth Rate for BAU Projection (%)

GDP Growth Rate for Alternative Scenarios

Alternative Scenario 1 is 1.5 times BAU GDP growth rate

Alternative Scenario 2 is 1.25 times BAU GDP growth rate

Alternative Scenario 3 is 0.75 times BAU GDP growth rate

Alternative Scenario 4 is 0.5 times BAU GDP growth rate

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Demand for transport services p km bau projection l.jpg
Demand for Transport Services (p-km): BAU Projection Emissions

  • Annual average growth rate of demand for transport services would be in the range of 3.3% (Beijing) to 7.3% (HCMC) during 1998-2020.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Vehicle share of the total vehicles in bandung and beijing l.jpg

2020 Emissions

2005

Trucks

Bus

3%

7%

Trucks

Bus

2%

10%

Car

26%

Car

29%

2-Wheeler

2-Wheeler

64%

59%

2020

2005

Bus

Trucks

Bus

Trucks

1%

12%

2-Wheeler

0%

9%

2-Wheeler

13%

7%

Car

Car

74%

84%

Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Bandung and Beijing

Bandung

Beijing

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Vehicle share of the total vehicles in delhi and hangzhou l.jpg

Others Emissions

2005

2020

Bus

2%

Trucks

Others

Bus

1%

Trucks

4%

2%

0%

Car

Car

4%

28%

32%

2-Wheeler

2-Wheeler

61%

66%

2020

2005

Trucks

Bus

Bus

2-Wheeler

Trucks

4%

2%

6%

7%

25%

Car

50%

2-Wheeler

Car

19%

87%

Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Delhi and Hangzhou

Delhi

Hangzhou

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Vehicle share of the total vehicles in hcmc and jakarta l.jpg

2020 Emissions

2005

Bus

Car

0%

3%

Bus

Trucks

Car

Trucks

0%

1%

1%

1%

2-Wheeler

96%

2-Wheeler

98%

2005

2020

Others

Others

Trucks

1%

Trucks

Bus

0%

Bus

12%

13%

10%

Car

Car

12%

18%

16%

2-Wheeler

57%

2-Wheeler

61%

Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in HCMC and Jakarta

HCMC

Jakarta

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Vehicle share of the total vehicles in manila and mumbai l.jpg

Bus Emissions

2005

2020

2-Wheeler

Car

Others

1%

Bus

Car

8%

12%

51%

Trucks

0%

34%

3%

2-Wheeler

Trucks

Others

9%

5%

77%

Bus

Bus

2005

2020

Others

Others

Trucks

1%

1%

Trucks

10%

8%

3%

Car

Car

3%

34%

26%

2-Wheeler

2-Wheeler

52%

62%

Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Manila and Mumbai

Manila

Mumbai

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Change in Model Mix (2005-2020) Emissions

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Car Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population) Emissions

  • Beijing would have the highest car ownership among the cities (248 in 2020). However, the number would be still less than that in OECD countries.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Bus ownership in 1998 and 2020 units 1000 population l.jpg
Bus Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population) Emissions

  • Beijing would have the lowest bus ownership during the planning horizon.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Two-wheeler Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population)

  • 2-wheeler ownership would be relatively low in Beijing, Hangzhou and Manila

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Annual average growth rate of total transport energy demand 1998 2020 bau projection l.jpg
Annual Average Growth Rate of Total Transport Energy Demand (1998-2020): BAU Projection

  • AAGR is above 5% in all Cities

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Share of cng in total energy demand in 2005 and 2020 l.jpg
Share of CNG in Total Energy Demand in 2005 and 2020 (%) (1998-2020): BAU Projection

  • The share of cleaner fuels, i.e. CNG, would increase in the future especially in the Indian cities of Mumbai and Delhi followed by Hangzhou Beijing and Jakarta.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Average annual growth rate of co 2 emission during 1998 2020 l.jpg
Average Annual Growth Rate of CO (1998-2020): BAU Projection 2 Emission During 1998-2020 (%)

  • Average annual growth rate: in the range of 3.1% (in Jakarta) to 12% (in Manila).

  • Total transport CO2 emissions from the eight cities: 53.8 million tonnes in 2020.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Ratio of co 2 in 2020 to the base year 1998 emission bau projection l.jpg
Ratio of CO (1998-2020): BAU Projection 2 in 2020 to the Base Year (1998) Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Modal share in co 2 emissions in bandung and beijing l.jpg

1998 (1998-2020): BAU Projection

2020

Trucks

Trucks

Bus

Bus

11%

15%

22%

5%

2-Wheelers

32%

Car

48%

2-Wheelers

Car

34%

33%

1998

2020

Trucks

Bus

43%

Trucks

Bus

2%

16%

11%

2-Wheelers

16%

2-Wheelers

3%

Car

43%

Car

66%

Modal Share in CO2 Emissions in Bandung and Beijing

Bandung

Beijing

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Modal share in co 2 emissions in delhi and hangzhou l.jpg

2020 (1998-2020): BAU Projection

1998

Bus

Others

Others

Bus

Trucks

23%

6%

10%

26%

Trucks

20%

16%

2-Wheelers

12%

2-Wheelers

Car

Car

6%

45%

36%

1998

2020

Trucks

Bus

Trucks

Bus

10%

25%

35%

2-Wheelers

25%

8%

Car

2-Wheelers

Car

37%

3%

57%

Modal Share in CO2 Emissions in Delhi and Hangzhou

Delhi

Hangzhou

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Modal share in co 2 emissions in hcmc and jakarta l.jpg

2020 (1998-2020): BAU Projection

1998

Bus

Bus

1%

Others

Others

Car

6%

Car

2%

1%

5%

Trucks

7%

Trucks

32%

29%

2-Wheelers

61%

2-Wheelers

56%

1998

2020

Bus

Bus

Others

Others

13%

17%

Trucks

2%

2%

Trucks

26%

33%

Car

34%

2-Wheelers

Car

14%

2-Wheelers

41%

18%

Modal Share in CO2 Emissions in HCMC and Jakarta

HCMC

Jakarta

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Modal share in co 2 emissions in manila and mumbai l.jpg

1998 (1998-2020): BAU Projection

2020

Bus

Bus

Others

4%

3%

34%

Others

43%

Car

46%

Car

Trucks

50%

8%

Trucks

2-Wheelers

2-Wheelers

5%

3%

4%

1998

2020

Others

10%

Others

Trucks

Bus

Bus

19%

8%

Trucks

45%

35%

6%

2-Wheelers

7%

2-Wheelers

5%

Car

Car

35%

30%

Modal Share in CO2 Emissions in Manila and Mumbai

Manila

Mumbai

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Changes in modal share in co 2 emission l.jpg
Changes in Modal Share in CO (1998-2020): BAU Projection 2 Emission

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Ratio of local pollutants in 2020 to the base year 1998 emission bau projection l.jpg
Ratio of Local Pollutants in 2020 to the Base Year (1998) Emission: BAU Projection

  • Among the cities, Mumbai would have the lower ratio due to the higher share of buses, use of CNG and penetration of 4-stroke 2-wheelers.

  • HCMC would have the higher ratio due to the higher share of 2-wheelers.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Technical Options for CO Emission: BAU Projection2 Emission Mitigation

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Technology Options Considered for Emission: BAU ProjectionEmission Mitigation

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Least Cost CO Emission: BAU Projection2 Mitigation Options

ADO—Additive diesel oil

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Least Cost CO Emission: BAU Projection2 Mitigation Options Contd..

  • MRTS is cost effective at 20%, 40%, 25% and 40% CO2 reduction target in Bandung, Beijing, Hangzhou and HCMC respectively.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Impact of co 2 mitigation target on emissions of local pollutants l.jpg
Impact of CO Emission: BAU Projection2 Mitigation Target on Emissions of Local Pollutants

  • Local emission reduction objectives could still be served by focusing on CO2 emission reductions.

  • In the case of Beijing and Hangzhou, the introduction of efficient diesel car would reduce the emission level of CO, NOx and NMVOC. However, it would increase the emission of TSP.

  • TSP emission in Delhi would be reduced by 13% under 10% CO2 reduction target.

  • In Mumbai. TSP emission would be reduced 14% to 10%.

  • In the case of Manila, CO emissions would fall by 32% at 10% CO2 reduction.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Selected technical options to mitigate co 2 emission l.jpg
Selected Technical Options to Mitigate CO Emission: BAU Projection2 Emission

  • Bandung: LPG buses, bio-diesel buses and bio- ethanol buses

  • Beijing: CNG buses, diesel cars and MRTS

  • Delhi: CNG buses, CNG cars and 4-stroke 2-wheelers

  • Jakarta: CNG buses, LPG buses, bio-diesel buses and bio-ethanol buses

  • Hangzhou: CNG buses, diesel cars and MRTS

  • HCMC: MRT, Diesel bus

  • Manila: CNG buses, alco-diesel buses and (coconut methyl ester) CME buses

  • Mumbai: CNG cars, CNG 3-wheelers and BOV 3- wheelers

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Barriers to the adoption of efficient options l.jpg
Barriers to the Adoption of Efficient Options Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Barriers to the adoption of efficient options34 l.jpg
Barriers to the Adoption of Efficient Options Emission: BAU Projection

  • Barriers varies from:

  • Country to country

  • City to City

  • Technology to Technology

  • Technology specific barriers for each city were identified and the analysis of barriers are carried out using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Barriers to the adoption of cng bus l.jpg
Barriers to the Adoption of CNG Bus Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Barriers to the Adoption of Bio-fuel Buses in Manila Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Barriers to the Adoption of CNG Cars Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Barriers to the adoption of mrts l.jpg
Barriers to the Adoption of MRTS Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Barriers to the adoption of 4 stroke 2 wheelers in delhi l.jpg
Barriers to the Adoption of 4-Stroke 2-wheelers in Delhi Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Thank you Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Additional information l.jpg
Additional Information Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Project approach l.jpg
Project Approach Emission: BAU Projection

Project Development

(AIT, NRIs, Regional Experts/Policy Makers)

Review of Methodology

(NRIs)

Development of Methodology

(AIT)

Country Case Studies

(NRIs)

Review of Case Studies

(AIT)

Cross-Country Synthesis (AIT)

Publications

(AIT, NRIs)

Dissemination

(NRIs, AIT)

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Methodology l.jpg
Methodology Emission: BAU Projection

Population

GDP

Energy Intensity

Emission Factor

Econometric Model

Vehicle Stocks

Spread Sheet

Model

Transport Demand (p-km)

LEAP Model

Utilization,

Occupancy Rate

Energy Demand

Emission

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Modal Mix in 2005 and 2020 under the BAU Case, % Emission: BAU Projection

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Structure of the Projected Energy Demand in 2005 and 2020 Emission: BAU Projection

  • The share of cleaner fuels, i.e. CNG, would increase in the future especially in the Indian cities of Mumbai and Delhi followed by the Chinese cities of Beijing and Hangzhou.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Ratio of environmental emission in 2020 to the base year emission l.jpg

City Emission: BAU Projection

CO2

CO

SOx

NOx

TSP

Bandung

3.9

4.0

3.5

3.8

2.7

Beijing

4

1.2

1.5

3.5

6.2

Delhi

3.4

0.7

1.1

0.7

1.4

NA

Hangzhou

5.6

5.3

6.0

2.0

NA

HCMC

6.5

5.9

6.9

4.7

Jakarta)

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.2

2.1

Manila

3.3

3.3

3.3

1.8

3

Mumbai

3.3

0.6

0.7

0.4

0.7

Ratio of Environmental Emission in 2020 to the Base Year Emission

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Flow chart of methodology l.jpg
Flow Chart of Methodology Emission: BAU Projection

Candidate Options

Costs

Vehicle Penetration Rate

Fuel Availability

Emission target

Transport Demand Data

Vehicle-Mix Model

Vehicular Mix

Vehicle-km by mode

Emission Factor

Total Cost

Total Emissions

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Least cost vehicle options bandung and jakarta l.jpg
Least-Cost Vehicle Options Emission: BAU ProjectionBandung and Jakarta

  • In the base case, the shares of gasoline vehicles in total passenger transport service supplied in both cities would be decreasing while that of additive diesel oil (ADO) and LPG would be increasing

  • At 20% reduction target, LPG and bio-diesel vehicles (car, minibus, truck, and bus), and MRT would be cost effective options to meet the CO2 reduction target in Bandung. The share of bio-diesel vehicles at 20% target would be 24.6% in 2020.

  • In the case of Jakarta, LPG car would be selected at 10% reduction target and bio-diesel vehicles (car, bus, jeep, minibus, bus, pick up and truck) and MRT would be selected at 40% reduction target. The share of bio-diesel vehicles and MRT at 40% reduction target would be 42.6% and 4.8% respectively in 2020 in Jakarta.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Least cost vehicle options contd beijing and hangzhou l.jpg
Least-Cost Vehicle Options Emission: BAU ProjectionContd..Beijing and Hangzhou

  • Under Base Case, the shares of gasoline car and diesel buses on total passenger kilometer supplied would increase in both cities.

  • To achieve a reduction of 10% CO2 emission, gasoline cars needs to be replaced by diesel cars.

  • At higher emission reduction target of 40% for Beijing and 25% for Hangzhou, the share of MRTS would increase substantially.

  • The shares of diesel-buses in total passenger transport service supplied in different years would reduce significantly when the emission reduction target is increased from 30% to 40% for Beijing and 20% to 25% for Hangzhou.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Least cost vehicle options contd delhi and mumbai l.jpg
Least-Cost Vehicle Options Emission: BAU ProjectionContd..Delhi and Mumbai

  • Among the technologies considered, CNG buses would supply highest share of the transport services in passenger-km in Delhi while diesel buses would supply highest share of the transport services in Mumbai.

  • In Delhi, at higher emission reduction target level of 25%, diesel buses would replace the gasoline and diesel cars.

  • In the case of Mumbai, CNG buses would replace diesel buses at the emission reduction target of 5% while at higher emission reduction target of 30% battery operated 3-wheelers (2.5% in 2020) would replace the diesel 3-wheelers.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Least cost vehicle options contd l.jpg
Least-Cost Vehicle Options Emission: BAU ProjectionContd..

Manila

  • Alco-diesel bus, alco-diesel trucks and cars with catalytic converters would be cost effective technologies at the lower CO2 emission mitigation target of 5% in Manila.

  • As the emission mitigation target is increased, the share of these three technologies would be increased, while the share of diesel buses and diesel trucks would decrease. At 15% reduction target, 99 % of the trucks would be using alco-diesel in 2020.

    HCMC

  • Vans would be a cost effective technology at lower CO2 emission reduction target of 3% in HCMC. At the emission reduction target of 3%, van would replace diesel buses.

  • At higher emission reduction targets of 12%, electric 2-wheelers would also be cost effective technology. Its share would be 27% at 12 % CO2 reduction target

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Marginal Cost of CO Emission: BAU Projection2 Abatement (MAC), US$/tonne of CO2

  • MAC would be relatively high for Manila (178 $/tonne of CO2 at 5% reduction target) and relatively low for HCMC (0.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 6% reduction target).

  • The MAC values are relatively low in Beijing, Delhi and Mumbai.

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Three important Barriers in Beijing and Hangzhou for the Selected Options

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


Three important barriers in delhi and mumbai for the selected options l.jpg
Three important Barriers in Delhi and Mumbai for the Selected Options

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Three important Barriers in Selected OptionsHCMC for the Selected Options

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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Three important Barriers in Selected OptionsManila for the Selected Options

COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India


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