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Estimating Potential Demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs). Michael K. Hidrue and George R. Parsons Camp Resources XVII Wrightsville Beach, NC June 24-25, 2010. Sponsored by: US Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery and Reliability . Outline. Objective Study design

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estimating potential demand for electric vehicles evs

Estimating Potential Demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Michael K. Hidrue and George R. Parsons

Camp Resources XVII

Wrightsville Beach, NC

June 24-25, 2010

Sponsored by:

US Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery and Reliability 

outline
Outline
  • Objective
  • Study design
  • Estimation results
  • WTP estimates
  • Conclusion
objectives
Objectives
  • Estimate potential market demand for EVs
  • Assess the value of adding V2G on demand for EVs
  • V2G vehicles are special type of EVs that allow people to sell power from their batteries back to electric companies.
study design
Study Design
  • Web based choice experiment
  • National Survey, N=3029
  • Sample resembles national census data
  • Latent class random utility model

3

results number of latent classes
Results: Number of Latent Classes
  • BIC identified two latent classes
      • The EV class has positive EV constant, high value for fuel saving and tend to be green
      • The GV class has negative EV constant, low value for fuel cost saving and tend not to be green

EV class

GV class

results vehicle choice model
Results: Vehicle Choice Model

*=value of yea saying is subtracted from the constants

top 10 wtp estimates
Top 10% WTP Estimates

Assumptions:

Fuel cost=$1.00/gal equivalent

Acceleration=5% slower

Pollution=75% lower

conclusion
Conclusion
  • Driving range, charging time and performance are significant drivers of EV choice
  • Green life style, hybrid buyer, outlet access, expected gas price and age are significant predictors of EV choice
  • Multicar household, college education and regions are not significant predictors of EV choice
  • People will pay premium for some EV designs
  • For EVs to compete on the market, battery cost has to decline substantially.
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