Global Security and Afghanistan: The Crossroad of Civilizations and Invasions Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise April 2008 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global Security and Afghanistan: The Crossroad of Civilizations and Invasions Ambassador Said T. Jawad Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise April 2008. Overview. NATO Summit in Bucharest Land and People Security Situation Escalation of Violence Who are the Taliban?

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Global Security and Afghanistan:

The Crossroad of Civilizations and Invasions

Ambassador Said T. Jawad

Queen Victoria 2008 Maiden World Cruise

April 2008


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Overview

  • NATO Summit in Bucharest

  • Land and People

  • Security Situation

    • Escalation of Violence

    • Who are the Taliban?

    • Profile of a Suicide Bomber

    • Our Strategy

    • Building Afghanistan’s Security Forces

    • Problem of Narcotics

  • Regional Instability

    • A Dangerous Neighborhood

  • Global Security

    • International Cooperation

    • Role of NATO

    • Challenges of Coordination

  • Public Opinion in Afghanistan


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Land and People

Area: 647,500 sq. km. (France)

Population: 26 mil

5000 years of history

Strategic location

Crossroad of civilizations and invasions

Mosaic of cultures

Original Front: The Cold War and the War on Terror


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Security Situation


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Escalation of Terrorist Attacks


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Escalation of Terrorist Attacks


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Escalation of Violence in 2007

160 suicide attacks

30 % increase in terrorist attacks – Civilians are the prime target

566 security incidents per month vs. 425 average in 2006

8,000 conflict related deaths (7500 civilians)

Attacks on Schools: 133

384 of the total 721 schools in the southern provinces are closed

Attacks on Soft Targets

Over 130 attacks against humanitarian programs, 40 aid workers killed, 89 abducted

Sophisticated and more lethal attacks

IEDs, VBIEDs, EFPs

Al Qaeda influence and modus operandi


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5, 700 civilian

victims of conflict

* Source: Cordesman, Anthony. “The Afghan-Pakistan War:A Status Report” CSIS 12.04.2007


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Where are we?

  • Tipping point or Turning point?

    • Historic accomplishments risk being overshadowed

  • 6 years after the start of Operation Enduring Freedom

    • Afghans do not feel safe

    • Lack resources to provide protection to our people

    • Shortage of national and international troops, equipment and resources

    • Limited respect for Afghan priorities and plans

    • Lack of coordination and proper sequencing

    • Our partners talk about coordination, but no one wants to be coordinated

    • Erosion of Patience (10% in extreme poverty)

  • The good will of the Afghan people is our most important asset.


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Who is Responsible?

Taliban

Are the Taliban an alternative?

Terrorize population into submission

Xenophobic terrorists with a history of oppression

No political vision

No charismatic leaders or ideological coherence

Aim to derail reconstruction

Capitalize on public frustration

Foreign ideological, financial and logistical support

Links to Al Qaeda: The Commander and the Foot Soldiers

Al Qaeda

IEDs, EFPs and Suicide Bombs

Propaganda: Media, DVDs, recruitment websites

Criminals, Warlords and spoilers

Narco-Traffickers


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Profile of a Suicide Bomber

  • 1st wave: Foreigners

  • 2nd wave: Local

  • Who are the new recruits?

    • Few hardcore Jihadis

    • Taliban and Al Qaeda capitalizing on Ignorance, Poverty and Physical Handicaps

  • Radical madrassa networks are brainwashing young people


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Our Strategy for Fighting Terror

Fighting terrorism as a phenomenon,

not just terrorists as individuals.

CLEAR

Large scale, periodic military operations

Prevent Collateral Damage and Harm to Civilians

HOLD

NATO/ANA and ANP sequencing - do not abandon people

Deliver services: Court System, Police, Schools, Clinics

BUILD

No security without development

Nati0nal ownership: Afghan face, not Afghan pace

Demand driven reconstruction in support of our National Strategy; not prescriptive aid and pet projects


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Our Strategy: Training Afghan Security Forces

  • Success of Afghan National Army

    • 48,000 troops; Target: 80,000

    • Professional Training

    • National Military Academy established; modeled on West Point - 300 graduates per year

  • Challenges of Afghan National Police

    • 21 countries are helping

    • Low level of accomplishment

    • Challenges


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Global Security: NATO

NATO Summit in Romania

44,000 troops from 26 NATO countries, including 18,500 U.S. soldiers

38 countries are putting troops and their credibility on the line

41 countries are training the ANA

60 countries are providing reconstruction resources


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Global Security

International Consensus

  • ISAF: 26 NATO members plus 11 partner nations

  • Challenge of coordination, troops and equipment

    • Need unity of effort, joint priorities and agreed sequencing

  • Shortage of Operational Mentor and Liaison Teams (OMLTs)

  • Challenges of NATO transformation to meet a new threat

    • National caveats – 102 as of October 2007

  • “We have not fully been able to live up to the promises.”

    – NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer, October 2007


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International Consensus26 Provincial Reconstruction Teams from 13 countries


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Challenges in Striking Back

Perceptions:

  • Public confidence in government is eroding

  • Corruption

  • Government is still large and interfering rather than efficient and enabling

  • Police reform: The battle for public opinion

    Solution:

  • Build the capacity of the Afghan Government to deliver

  • Anti-corruption strategy, Justice Sector, Salaries

  • Balancing tribal leaders with good managers

  • Expand pockets of competence within Government

  • Channel more funding through Government and Trust Funds


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Challenges of Striking Back

  • Fatal Error of Civilian Casualties

  • Civilian casualties are unacceptable to the Afghan government and people

  • Not only a fatal tragedy, but a strategic misstep

  • Fuels enemy propaganda

  • Use of human shields by terrorists

  • Solution

  • Improve quality of ground troops

  • Surgical Operations: Precision and human intelligence

  • Rapid-Response units that can deal with emergencies More international special forces

  • Rebuild Afghan air force

  • The power of a quick apology - Jalalabad


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Challenges of Striking BackFatal Error of Civilian Casualties

* Source: Cordesman, Anthony. “The Afghan-Pakistan War:A Status Report” CSIS 12.04.2007


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Regional PowersA Dangerous Neighborhood


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Regional Powers: A Volatile Region

Far from Heaven…

Good partner in a strategic region

Ring Road will turn Afghanistan into a roundabout for the region

Relation with Pakistan:

“Better than it sounds”Mark Twain

Elections in Pakistan: A Step Forward

Trade with Pakistan: 500% increase

New opportunities vs. old phobias and designs

Central Asia

Under-utilized potential of cooperation

Iran: Still constructive?

India and China

Our policy of seeking regional cooperation


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Measuring Progress


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Transition to Pluralism

  • Tyranny that ruled through fear

  • Absence of women from political and public life

  • Devastated economy

  • Largest refugee population in world

  • No formal banking system

  • School enrollment: 900,000

  • 8% of population has access to basic health care

  • Few modern roads

  • Repressive political climate,

  • Elected President, Elected Parliament, Progressive Constitution

  • 74 Women Elected to the Afghan Legislature

  • Economy is Booming: Continuous double digit Economic Growth

  • 4.7 million refugees have returned home

  • Independent Central Bank with 32 Branches

  • School Enrollment: 6 million

  • 65-80% has access to health care

  • 10,000 km of new roads

  • Vibrant Political Process, hundreds of publications and radio stations, 6 independent TV stations


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Why is it important to stay engaged?

  • Historic Lesson: Being in Afghanistan is Dangerous – Not being in Afghanistan is more Dangerous

  • Investing in Afghanistan is a down payment for regional stability and tied to global security.

  • NATO: International credibility on the line

  • Afghanistan should not remain the most under-resourced nation-building operation of the postwar era

  • Need Marshall Plan and strategic commitment

  • South Korea as a model


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What Can You Do?

  • Learn more about Afghans

    • Kite Runner, A Thousand Splendid Suns

  • Buy Afghan products and give your home a touch of Afghanistan

    • Rugs, Handicrafts

  • People-to-People Diplomacy

    • Help Educate the Next Generation of Afghan Leaders

    • Travel: See Afghanistan with your own eyes

    • Help Heal the Wounds of War – Doctors needed for volunteer work

  • Celebrate Afghan Culture

    • Hidden Treasures on tour in Europe and USA


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Grateful for your Support

  • Your sons and daughters are fighting for global security

  • The good will of the Afghan people is an asset

  • Public Opinion in Afghanistan:

    • 90% of Afghans support the Afghan National Army

    • President Karzai’s approval rating is 63% (compare against other world leaders)

    • 70% hold favorable views of the US military

    • Afghans prefer current government to the Taliban by 84-4%

      *December 2007 ABC/BBC Poll

      and October 2007 Asia Foundation Poll


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Thank You

www.embassyofafghanistan.org


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