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Making the Web equal Profit Surfing for GeneticsPowerPoint Presentation

Making the Web equal Profit Surfing for Genetics

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Making the Web equal Profit Surfing for Genetics. Dorian Garrick & Mark Enns Department of Animal Sciences Colorado State University. Surfing for Genetics. Surfing for Convenience Surfing to Support Decisions based on your own Customized Computations. Convenience.

Making the Web equal Profit Surfing for Genetics

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Making the Web equal ProfitSurfing for Genetics

Dorian Garrick & Mark Enns

Department of Animal Sciences

Colorado State University

- Surfing for Convenience
- Surfing to Support Decisions based on your own Customized Computations

- Finding a Particular Bull/Breed/Breeder
- Sort Orders
- Finding extreme bulls for some attribute

- Filters
- Finding bulls with particular combinations of attributes

- Up-to-date EPD and ACC information

- Interpretation of Threshold Traits
- Interactions between ERTs
- Assessment of Nutritional Implications
- Assessment of Financial Implications
- Perhaps also Economic Implications

- Accounting for Risk
- Multibreed Evaluation & Crossbreeding

W W D = 50 lb

W W D = 20 lb

W W D = 50 lb

W W D = 20 lb

Herd 1Average 500 lbAverage 530

W W D = 50 lb

W W D = 20 lb

Herd 1Average 500 lbAverage 530

Herd 2Average 550 lbAverage 580

- Calving Ease EPD
- Stayability EDP
- Heifer Pregnancy EPD

Difficult to get pregnant

Easy to get pregnant

Average

Difficult to get pregnant

Easy to get pregnant

Average

Suppose 20% heifers are open

And 80% heifers are pregnant

Pregnant Heifers

Heifers not in calf

20%

Difficult to get pregnant

Easy to get pregnant

Average

Pregnant Heifers

Heifers not in calf

20%

Truncn pt = 0.84s

Threshold

Pregnant Heifers

Heifers not in calf

20%

Truncn pt = 0.84s

0.38

Pregnant Heifers

Heifers not in calf

20%

Truncn pt = 0.84s

12%

Truncn pt = 0.84 +0.38/1.17=1.165

Phenotypic s.d. = 1.17

0.38

10%

Truncn pt = 1.28s

5.5%

Truncn pt = 1.28 +0.38/1.17=1.605

Phenotypic s.d. = 1.17

0.38

- An underlying EPD of 0.38 for heifer pregnancy would increase pregnancy rate
- By 8.0% if average pregnancy rate is 80%
- By 4.5% if the average is 90%

- Phenotypic “interpretation” of underlying threshold scores depends upon the mean
- Published values are at a mean of 50%

- Publish values that are hard to interpret
- OR Publish tables of EPDs relevant to different average levels of performance
- Calving Ease:
- First Calf:75, 80, 85, 90, 95%
- Mixed Age:95, 99%

- Stayability: 40, 45, 50, 55, 60%
- Heifer Pregnancy: 75, 80, 85, 90, 95%

- Calving Ease:

- OR Use web-based decision support
- User defined average levels of performance
- Compute the
- number of pregnant vs open heifers
- number of easy vs difficult calvings
- Likely age structure of the herd
- Number of replacement heifers required
- Number of cull yearlings and mixed age cows

W W D = 20 lb

W W D = 50 lb

Base+30 lb

Base

- WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal)
- gives +30 lb weanlings

- WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal)
- gives +30 lb weanlings
- gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd

- WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal)
- gives +30 lb weanlings
- gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd

- Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb

- WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal)
- gives +30 lb weanlings
- gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd

- Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb
- Increasing HPG +12 will give another + 3lb

- WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal)
- gives +30 lb weanlings
- gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd

- Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb
- Increasing HPG +12 will give another + 3lb
- Increasing CED +11 will give another +1 lb

- Many ERT interact in a system context
- Total sale weight at weaning is altered by WWD, WWM, STAY, HPG, CED, CEM, ME (plus BW & YWT)
- The impact of any one EPD on the change in sale weight depends upon all the other EPDs and the average levels of performance

- Feed requirements are influenced by the
- Expected maintenance requirements
- Expected requirements for gain
- Deviation from our expectations (known as residual feed intake or RFI)

- Changing any of WWD, WWM, STAY, HPG, CED, CEM, ME, BW, YW will alter whole herd feed requirements

- Changes in profit can be calculated from change in income × priceschange in expenses × costs
- Straightforward (but tedious) arithmetic

- Prices & Costs can be obtained on a financial basis or an economic basis
- What is the cost of feed in an extensive cow-calf grazing operation?

- Feed “cost” can be calculated from its “opportunity” cost
- Measure of what net income would be given up if you had less feed (and less cows)
- Can be calculated from comparing the system profit of two herds of alternative genotypes with different stocking rates such that each consume the same amount of feed

- Leave it to bull buyers to struggle thru facts & calculations
- OR put it all together via the web
Website ert.agsci.colostate.edu

Perturbed Situation

Base Situation

Current

(equilibrium)

Cow

Herd

(EPD

&

Performance)

Like

Merit

Bulls

X

Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs

Perturbed Situation

Base Situation

Current

Cow

Herd

(EPD)

Chosen

Bulls

X

Current

(equilibrium)

Cow

Herd

(EPD

&

Performance)

Like

Merit

Bulls

Daughter

(equilibrium)

Cow

Herd

(EPD

& Base mean

Performance)

X

Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs

Perturbed Situation

Base Situation

Current

Cow

Herd

(EPD)

Chosen

Bulls

X

Current

(equilibrium)

Cow

Herd

(EPD

&

Performance)

Like

Merit

Bulls

Daughter

(equilibrium)

Cow

Herd

(EPD

& base mean

Performance)

Like

Merit

Bulls

X

X

Perturbed Cow-calf outputs & inputs

Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs

Consider the following three bulls

Bull#prog AccProfit

Lima 300.5 to 0.6$908

Sierra 2400.7 to 0.8$729

Bravo37000.8 to 0.95$648

- On average, true EPD is equally likely to be greater or lesser than published
- ACC allows us to quantify the extent to which the estimate may vary from true
- Considering just BW, WW, YW, Milk, ME and not (in this example) CED, CETM, HPG, ST we can compute many possible “realizations” of each bull

3700 progeny

$648

3700 progeny

240 progeny

$729

3700 progeny

240 progeny

30 progeny

$908

- Publish an “expected change” table
- OR provide web options for quantifying risk (prototype available this Fall)

*A1 & S3 are breed average EPDs

#Angus Base

*A1 & S3 are breed average EPDs

- Publish within-breed EPDs
- Let users find breed adjustments & heterosis

- Publish multibreed EPDs
- Let users deal with heterosis coefficients & heterosis

- Publish all EPDs on a multibreed base with heterosis factors included according to the breed of dam for every ERT
- Use web-based decision support

- To date, the major value of the web has been convenience
- In future, the web will provide an interface to knowledge (eg nutritional requirements and heterosis factors) and information that for customized calculations to support your decisions
- Better decision support will give better decisions (eg more profit)