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“Peak Oil” – It’s coming PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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“Peak Oil” – It’s coming. Dave Kilsby ASPO Australia. It can’t be ignored. Why does it matter?. Forecast Transport Energy Consumption Growth for Australia Source: Energy White Paper 2004. ASPO Australia. aims to:

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“Peak Oil” – It’s coming

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“Peak Oil” – It’s coming

Dave Kilsby

ASPO Australia


It can’t be ignored


Why does it matter?


Forecast Transport Energy Consumption Growth for AustraliaSource: Energy White Paper 2004


ASPO Australia

aims to:

  • encourage the acknowledgement and study of Peak Oil particularly as it affects Australia

  • be a source of independent information for businesses, governments and communities

  • collaborate with other bodies to help prepare and implement relevant policies and strategies

  • promote awareness of the issue of peak oil and gas


Oil & gas industry

Biofuels

Indigenous & Remote Communities

Agriculture, fisheries & food

Finance & economics

Urban & transport planning

Social services

Active transport

Construction industry

Health sector

Defence

ASPO Australia Working Groups

+ working groups for NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, WA, SA


How much oil and gas is there? (ASPO 2005 estimate)


What about Australia? Haven’t we got plenty of our own oil?

Not for much longer! (Geosciences Australia)


Recent oil price fluctuations


Unreliability of ABARE forecasts


VAMPIRE(Source: Dodson & Sipe, Griffith University,2006)


Alternatives to cars (from Sydney Metro Strategy)


Domestic freight task % moved by mode 1999-2000


Renewables

Biofuels

Conventional oil

Unconventional oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydrogen

Alternative transport fuels?


Conclusions

  • Transport over 40% of final energy use in Australia

  • Transport heavily dependent on liquid fuels (oil)

  • The age of cheap oil is almost over

  • Short-term urgency in planning for post-oil age

  • More mitigation options in cities than in rural areas


What to do?

  • Commonwealth to become involved

  • “Do nothing” not an option

  • No magic bullet

  • ASPO Australia advocates

    • community engagement, individualised marketing, fuel tax escalator, tradeable fuel allocation system

  • Leadership required

  • Buy time!


For further information

  • www.sydneypeakoil.com

    • Sydney Peak Oil Group

  • www.aspo-australia.org.au

    • ASPO Australia

  • www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat-ctte

    • over 180 submissions to an Inquiry into oil supply & alternative fuels: …/oil_supply/submissions/sublist.html

  • www.peakoil.net

    • ASPO

  • www.energybulletin.net

    • (one of many good international sitesfor Peak Oil info)


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