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U.S. National Elections, 2008 David King September 22, 2008. 1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system. 2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes. 3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress.

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U s national elections 2008 david king september 22 2008

U.S. National Elections, 2008David KingSeptember 22, 2008

1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system.

2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes

3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress

4. Likely foreign & defense advisors in an Obama or McCain administration


U s national elections

1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system.

Consider: election districts are “single member” districts.

Consider: States in the Electoral College are “winner take all.”

Remember: Whomever gets the most votes (a plurality) wins.

Imagine an election within a district with the following outcomes:

Mackerson 9%

Aquino18%

Party 1

Party 2

Patterson 48%

Patterson21%

Hartpense11%

Grovner27%

Grovner 52%

Philips14%


U s national elections

2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes

* Political polls are largely irrelevant, and usually wrong

* Electoral College is based on Congressional Delegations (535+3)

http://wiki.abulsme.com/2008_Electoral_College_Prediction


U s national elections

2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes

* Political polls are largely irrelevant, and usually wrong

* Electoral College is based on Congressional Delegations (535+3)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


U s national elections

Obama – InTrade price, September 22, 2008


U s national elections

3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress


U s national elections

Democrats Control the 111th Congress

– InTrade price, September 22, 2008


U s national elections

4. Obama – Foreign & Defense Policy Inner Circle

Denis McDonough

Anthony Lake

Susan Rice

Sarah Sewell

Richard Danzig

Samantha Power


U s national elections

4. McCain – Foreign & Defense Policy Inner Circle

Randy Scheunemann

Robert Kagan

Stephen E. Biegun

Richard S. Williamson

James Woolsey


U s national elections

Keep in mind:

The election results will likely have a significant effect on the

“mood” around policy – and will affect operations in Iraq,

Afghanistan, and Darfur

An Obama administration will be more “internationalist,” and

A McCain administration more “nationalist” and “realist.”

The U.S. Congress will be controlled by Democrats, so expect

a Strong opposition if McCain wins, and Coordination if Obama wins

Looming over everything – the financial crisis on our horizon, and the costs of campaign promises.


U s national elections 2008 david king september 22 20081

U.S. National Elections, 2008David KingSeptember 22, 2008

1. A quick refresher on the inevitability of the U.S. 2-party system.

2. Presidential election polls / the electoral College / likely Outcomes

3. The changing makeup of the U.S. Congress

4. Likely foreign & defense advisors in an Obama or McCain administration


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