risk management and assessments of natural hazards
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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS. Ron Conner Corps of Engineers. CORPS MISSIONS. PLANNING , CONSTRUCTING AND MANAGING WATER RESOURCE AND COASTAL STORM PROJECTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS. RISK MANAGEMENT VS

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corps missions
CORPS MISSIONS
  • PLANNING , CONSTRUCTING AND MANAGING WATER RESOURCE AND COASTAL STORM PROJECTS
  • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
risk management and assessments of natural hazards3
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

RISK MANAGEMENT

VS

RISK-BASED ANALYSIS

risk management
RISK MANAGEMENT
  • IDENTIFY OPTIONS
  • EVALUATE TRADE-OFFS
  • SELECT APPROPRIATE RISK-LEVEL
risk based analysis
RISK-BASED ANALYSIS

An approach to evaluation and decision making that explicitly, and to the extent practical analytically incorporate considerations of risk and uncertainty

flood control example
FLOOD CONTROL EXAMPLE
  • PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
    • Frequency Curve
    • Rating Curve
    • Damage Function
  • MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
  • MULTIPLE ITERATIONS
planning emergency management
Investment Decision-Making

Lengthy Study Process

Precision Expectation

Mission Scope

Immediate Need

80 Percent Solution?

PLANNING EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
ongoing programs
ONGOING PROGRAMS
  • Research and Development
  • Other Programs
research and development
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
  • Risk Analysis for Civil Work Projects
    • Risk Analysis for Dam Safety
      • Procedures for applying risk analysis to dam safety investment decision making process
        • Individual dams
          • Case study: Alamo Dam
        • Portfolio assessment
          • Demonstration application
      • Procedures for estimating potential lives saved
research and development10
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
  • Corps Water Management System - CWMS
    • Project Status and Hydromet data in real-time
    • Store, Manage and Report data, imagery and documents
    • Model, Forecast and Simulate reservoir and river status
    • Perform Decision Support Analysis and Information Dissemination
  • Test Version Fielded at Four Sites
research and development11
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
  • Risk-Based Coastal Storm Model
    • Application Across Program Areas
    • Concept - Stage
    • Incorporates Uncertainty in Key Variables such as inundation areas, beach retreat, damage function.
    • Could be extended for Wind damage
other programs
OTHER PROGRAMS
  • FLOOD DAMAGE DATA COLLECTION
    • Data collection
    • Generic residential depth-damage functions
    • CEFIT
      • Residential
      • Commercial
    • Flood Plain Inventory Primer
    • Road Damages
  • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MODEL VALIDATION
objective
OBJECTIVE

An integrated program of risk management will bring together Federal and state programs to address the mitigation and the response and recovery from riverine and coastal flooding

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