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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS. Ron Conner Corps of Engineers. CORPS MISSIONS. PLANNING , CONSTRUCTING AND MANAGING WATER RESOURCE AND COASTAL STORM PROJECTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS. RISK MANAGEMENT VS

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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

Ron Conner

Corps of Engineers


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CORPS MISSIONS

  • PLANNING , CONSTRUCTING AND MANAGING WATER RESOURCE AND COASTAL STORM PROJECTS

  • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT


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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

RISK MANAGEMENT

VS

RISK-BASED ANALYSIS


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RISK MANAGEMENT

  • IDENTIFY OPTIONS

  • EVALUATE TRADE-OFFS

  • SELECT APPROPRIATE RISK-LEVEL


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RISK-BASED ANALYSIS

An approach to evaluation and decision making that explicitly, and to the extent practical analytically incorporate considerations of risk and uncertainty


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FLOOD CONTROL EXAMPLE

  • PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

    • Frequency Curve

    • Rating Curve

    • Damage Function

  • MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

  • MULTIPLE ITERATIONS


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Investment Decision-Making

Lengthy Study Process

Precision Expectation

Mission Scope

Immediate Need

80 Percent Solution?

PLANNING EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT


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ONGOING PROGRAMS

  • Research and Development

  • Other Programs


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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

  • Risk Analysis for Civil Work Projects

    • Risk Analysis for Dam Safety

      • Procedures for applying risk analysis to dam safety investment decision making process

        • Individual dams

          • Case study: Alamo Dam

        • Portfolio assessment

          • Demonstration application

      • Procedures for estimating potential lives saved


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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

  • Corps Water Management System - CWMS

    • Project Status and Hydromet data in real-time

    • Store, Manage and Report data, imagery and documents

    • Model, Forecast and Simulate reservoir and river status

    • Perform Decision Support Analysis and Information Dissemination

  • Test Version Fielded at Four Sites


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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

  • Risk-Based Coastal Storm Model

    • Application Across Program Areas

    • Concept - Stage

    • Incorporates Uncertainty in Key Variables such as inundation areas, beach retreat, damage function.

    • Could be extended for Wind damage


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OTHER PROGRAMS

  • FLOOD DAMAGE DATA COLLECTION

    • Data collection

    • Generic residential depth-damage functions

    • CEFIT

      • Residential

      • Commercial

    • Flood Plain Inventory Primer

    • Road Damages

  • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MODEL VALIDATION


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OBJECTIVE

An integrated program of risk management will bring together Federal and state programs to address the mitigation and the response and recovery from riverine and coastal flooding


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