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Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information

Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information . Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Contents. Project Area and Background Interconnection of Everett, Seattle and Tacoma Project process

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Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information

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  1. Modeling Urban Water Management: Using Climate Change Information Margaret Hahn and Richard Palmer University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

  2. Contents • Project Area and Background • Interconnection of Everett, Seattle and Tacoma • Project process • Linked models • Results of Reservoir Management model • Annual minimum storage • Impacts on planning process • Existing plans may not be sufficient

  3. Revised from Nelligan-Doran, 1999 Lake Washington Lake Youngs SEATTLE Cedar Reservoir SKCRWA TSI Pipeline 5 HAH Reservoir Pipeline 1 Pipeline 4 N TACOMA Pipeline 2 Tacoma Seattle Intertie

  4. Everett Pipelines 2-4 Pipeline 5 Spada Lake Reservoir Clearview Pipeline Proposed ESI Alignment Snohomish County King County TPL 1 TPL 2 Tolt Reservoir Seattle N ESSL Everett Seattle Intertie

  5. Planning and Management Analysis • 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands • 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows • PCM • ECHAM • Status quo system configuration • Tacoma Seattle Intertie • Everett Seattle Intertie

  6. Overall Analysis Process Precip and temp DHSVM Historic vs Simulated Downscaled GCM CRYSTAL model • Meteorological data • Hydrology model • Calibration • Climate Shift • Impacts Evaluation

  7. DHSVMDistributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

  8. CRYSTALCascade Regional Yield Simulation and Analysis Model • Simulation model of Puget Sound water supply • Considers future demands, policies, supplies and infrastructures • Uses weekly time step • Developed in Powersim

  9. Picture of Crystal

  10. Planning and Management Analysis • 2020 and 2040 forecasted demands • 2020 and 2040 climate change based stream flows • PCM • ECHAM • Status quo system configuration • Tacoma Seattle Intertie • Everett Seattle Intertie

  11. Results • Compare • minimum annual storage • number of shortfalls • duration of shortfalls • Reliability • 43 year record • any shortfall is considered a failure • no demand modification

  12. Chester Morse Reservoir

  13. Chester Morse Reservoir

  14. Chester Morse Reservoir

  15. Chester Morse Reservoir

  16. Chester Morse Reservoir

  17. Chester Morse Reservoir

  18. Annual Reliability 76% 83% 23% 40% 100% 95% 23% 38% Status Quo TS Intertie TS & ES Intertie

  19. Planning Implications • Ongoing regional planning efforts are important • TSI will provide only a portion of supply needed • Climate change results imply regional needs for cooperation and new approaches • Without new supply or dramatic changes in demand, system reliability will be unacceptable

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