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Walgreen Co. (WAG). Matthew McDonnell Contributions by James Herr. 14-September-2006. Company Overview. Founded in 1901 by Charles Walgreen 1 st store in Chicago Currently 5,251 stores operating in 45 states and Puerto Rico Median store age is approx. 5.4 years old

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walgreen co wag

Walgreen Co.(WAG)

Matthew McDonnell

Contributions by James Herr

14-September-2006

company overview
Company Overview
  • Founded in 1901 by Charles Walgreen
    • 1st store in Chicago
  • Currently 5,251 stores operating in 45 states and Puerto Rico
      • Median store age is approx. 5.4 years old
  • 131, 400 employees as of 11/30/2005
      • Avg. years of experience for store managers is 12.6 years
  • Goal is to have 7,000 stores by 2010
company overview1
Company Overview
  • David Bernauer
    • Chairman of the Board since 2003
    • Chief Executive Officer since 2002
    • President and Chief Operating Officer from 1999-2003
      • Has been with Walgreens since 1966
  • Jeffrey Rein
    • President and Chief Operating Officer since 2003
      • Has been with Walgreens since 1974
  • George Eilers replaced by Kevin Walgreen, great-grandson of Charles Walgreen, as Senior VP of Store Operations (Southern Region) in early 2006 due to Mr. Eilers’ retirement
    • Eilers had been with Walgreens for 46 years
      • Kevin Walgreen has been with company since 1979
  • William Rudolphsen
    • Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since 2004
      • Has been with Walgreens since 1977

Source Data: Walgreen Co. Jan. 11, 2006 Annual meeting and www.walgreens.com

rcmp position
RCMP Position
  • Own 1000 shares in Walgreens
  • Purchased at $25/share on 10/06/1999
  • Cost Basis is $25,000
  • Stock is now trading at $49.31/share
      • Valued at $49,310
  • Represents 13.75% of portfolio MV
  • Gain of $24,310, or 97.24%
macroeconomic overview general economy
Macroeconomic Overview- General Economy
  • Earlier this summer, the markets trended downward due to a number of factors:
    • Uncertain economic outlook stemming from repeated releases of conflicting economic indicators
    • Repeated non-official statements made by Federal Reserve Board members regarding the health of the economy, possible future actions
      • See May 1, 2006 on-air comments by CNBC reporter Maria Bartiromo
    • Continuing political uncertainty and worries regarding oil supplies as violence increased in Iraq and Iran defied US and UN fueled higher energy prices and muted hampered US and world equity markets
macroeconomic overview general economy1
Macroeconomic Overview- General Economy
  • Since mid-July, the markets have trended somewhat higher on high volume but gains have not been substantial
    • The market as a whole currently feels that a pause in interest rate hikes is indeed likely
    • One of the leading inhibitors for better performance remains continued uncertainly regarding the health of the economy stemming from conflicting economic indicators
      • See Friday, September 8, 2006 release of cost of wages and economic growth
macroeconomic overview demographics
Macroeconomic Overview- Demographics
  • Aging Population
    • Around 36 million people are 65+
      • 12.6% of the total U.S. population
        • 17.6% live in Florida
        • By 2030, there will be almost 72 million people 65+
    • Retirement of “Baby Boomers”
      • Currently, around 77 million Baby Boomers representing almost 27% of the population
      • Over 50% of Baby Boomers live in CA, TX, NY, FL, PA, IL, OH, MI, NJ
    • Americans begin to start taking more drugs in their early 50’s

Source Data: www.metlife.com

macroeconomic overview political
Macroeconomic Overview- Political
  • Medicare Part D prescription drug program
    • In effect as of January 1st, 2006
  • Prescription Drug coverage
    • Covers both generic and prescription drugs for those who qualify for Medicare
    • Designed to protect those with high drug costs
  • May allow pharmaceutical industry to create new drugs that are “safer” and more effective
  • At this point it is too early to tell how the new plan will affect Walgreens, as the “kinks” are being resolved
drug store industry
Drug Store Industry
  • Decreasing customer loyalty
    • Relationship with customers deteriorating
    • Customers now have more convenient or economically viable options
      • Generic drugs seen as a low-cost alternative to name-brand prescription and non-prescription medications = Mail order threat
  • Walgreens is combating the mail order threat by offering customers a choice between 90-day mail order prescriptions and 90-day at retail option, known as Advantage90
      • Advantage90 is currently offering prescriptions at $10 discount to 90-day mail orders

Source Data: Walgreen Co. Jan. 11, 2006 Annual meeting

drug store industry1
Drug Store Industry
  • Highly Competitive Industry
    • Competition with other drugstore chains, independent drugstores, mail order prescription providers, internet pharmacies
    • Other competitors include various grocery stores, mass merchants, and dollar stores
  • Main competitors:
    • CVS Corp. (CVS)
      • Recently purchased 700 stand alone Sav-On and Osco drugstores through its $9.7 billion buyout of Albertson’s Inc.
      • This move will give CVS a significantly greater Midwest foothold
    • Rite Aid Corp. (RAD)
  • “Partial” competitor
    • Wal-Mart (WMT)
      • Pharmaceutical more than grocery department
        • In FY 2004, Pharmaceuticals were 9% of Wal-Mart’s sales
          • In total, about $6 billion/year (25%) less in net sales than Walgreens

Source Data: Wal-mart’s 2004 10-K

competitors
Competitors

Source: Yahoo! Finance available at: http://www.finance.yahoo.com

interesting facts
Interesting Facts
  • Earnings:
    • The average grocery store earns $12/ sq. ft.
    • The average drug store chain earns $20/sq. ft.
    • Wal-Mart earns $26/sq. ft.
    • Walgreens earns $46/sq. ft.
  • Prescriptions (average per store)
    • Grocery stores fill 131 prescriptions/day
    • Mass retailers fill 143 prescriptions/day
    • Chain drug stores fill 180 prescriptions/day
    • Walgreens fills 263 prescriptions/day
      • Walgreens fills more prescriptions than all grocery stores combined!

Source Data: Walgreen Co. Jan. 11, 2006 Annual meeting

strategy
Strategy
  • Enter new markets
  • “Dense up” existing markets
  • Organic store growth
      • Relocate
      • Remodel
  • Invest heavily in high-tech store and distribution systems which drive service up and costs down
  • “An agile elephant” – Must continue to find ways to leverage the benefits of scale without losing the ability to react quickly to changes in customer needs
  • Healthcare offerings beyond that of a traditional pharmacy
    • Offer an online drugstore web site totally integrated with our retail stores
  • Attract and maintain top talent

Source data: www.walgreens.com

strategy1
Strategy

Growth, Growth, Growth!

  • Walgreens is currently increasing their net stores operated by approximately 1 store per day
  • The company, which currently operates 5,156 stores, plans to operate at least 7,000 stores by 2010
    • All this expansion is funded by cash flow from operations, as opposed to long-term debt or equity issuances
innovations
Innovations
  • Introduced freestanding stores in early 1990s with drive thru pharmacies
      • Today, more than 80% of Walgreen Co.’s stores have drive thru pharmacies
  • Nation-wide 1 hour photo service
      • Available at more than 98% of stores
    • New Digital Photo Service
      • Allows you to upload your photos at home and pick them up at any Walgreens store 1 hour later!
        • Much time and effort has been put into this project so that they stay ahead of competition
  • Touch tone prescription refills

Source data: www.walgreens.com

innovations1
Innovations
  • Largest private user of satellite technology
      • Second only to the United States government
  • Today, 125 million people live within 2 miles of a Walgreens
  • Walgreens plans to increase their business by investing in prime locations, technology, and customer service initiatives

Source data: www.walgreens.com & 2005 10-K

products
Products

Source data: Walgreen Co. 2005 10-K

walgreens locations by state
Walgreens – Locations by State

Source data: www.walgreens.com

positioning
Positioning
  • Walgreens well positioned for Baby Boomer era
  • Top 5 states with largest number of stores:
    • #1 = Florida with 673 stores
    • #2 = Texas with 530 stores
    • #3 = Illinois with 500 stores
    • #4 = California with 419 stores
    • #5 = Arizona with 223 stores
  • Over 50% of Baby Boomers live in FL, TX, IL, CA, NY, PA, OH, MI, NJ

Source Data: www.metlife.com

new workings
New Workings
  • Medicare Part D prescription drug program
      • Walgreens has recently integrated a program into their computer system that lets the pharmacists look at a patient’s list of drugs and match the patient with the Medicare drug program that will be most cost-effective for them
      • Best of all, it’s free!
  • New Acquisitions
    • Walgreens recently acquired SeniorMed, an assisted living prescription business in hope that it will give them a “big boost” in a business area where they had previously lost customers
    • In addition, WAG is now partnered with TakeCare and InterFit to operate small clinics in WAG stores

Source Data: Walgreen Co. Jan. 11, 2006 Annual meeting

new workings1
New Workings
  • Dial-A-Pharmacist (in 14 languages)
      • Automatically connects a patient with a Walgreens pharmacist somewhere in USA who speaks that particular language
  • Highway Signs
      • New Federal Regulations are allowing 24-Hour pharmacies to put up signs on major highways(Just like McDonald’s and Shell)
          • Walgreens already has 7 put up in Illinois
  • Solar powered roofs
      • Walgreens will begin to start using solar powered roofs in 100 of their stores
      • These will allow each store to generate 20-50% of it’s own electricity.

Source Data: Walgreen Co. Jan. 11, 2006 Annual meeting

10 year performance
10 Year Performance

Adjusted for stock splits and dividends

correlation matrix
Correlation Matrix

Note: Table assumes equal-weighted portfolio

fit with rcmp portfolio appraisal ratios
“Fit” With RCMP Portfolio:Appraisal Ratios
  • Appraisal ratio

: Risk-adjusted measure of excess returns provided by a security

= alpha/(std error^2)

      • Suggests user add (short) the security if alpha is significant and appraisal ratio is greater than alternatives
appraisal ratios
Appraisal Ratios

Note: alpha for all 3 securities above is not positive with 95% certainty but is significant at slightly lower levels of confidence

Source Data: Yahoo! Finance

relative multiple analysis
Relative Multiple Analysis

Growth Implied by PEG Ratios

  • Here we see that the market has already priced significant growth into Walgreen stock.
    • Unless the firm can grow almost 18% annually ad infinum, the stock will likely undergo a correction.

Source Data: Yahoo! Finance

relative multiple analysis1
Relative Multiple Analysis
  • Here we see that Walgreen’s P/E Ratio is high not only to the market but also it’s industry.
    • This serves as additional evidence of the significant “premium” the market has placed on the firm’s stock.
valuation process of a dcf
Valuation Process of a DCF
  • To refresh, intrinsic value of a firm’s common equity is determined as follows:
    • Forecast free cash flow over a period of X years and a terminal value via: [FCF final period*(1+LT growth rate)]/[WACC-LT Growth Rate]
    • Calculate WACC via: (we*ke)+[wd*kd*(1-tax rate)]
    • Discount all cash flows and arrive at enterprise value via:Σ1N FCF i/[(1+WACC)^i]
    • Subtract LT debt from enterprise value
    • Divide by common shares outstanding to get price per share
valuation step 2 calculating wacc
Valuation Step 2: Calculating WACC
  • Sensitivity to WACC is a major issue for most DCF models, and is of extraordinary importance when modeling Walgreen Co.
    • I will revisit this topic later in the presentation
  • Since WAG is 100% equity, WACC=ke. Below is ke (and thus, WACC) calculated via CAPM
steps 4 5 subtract lt debt and divide by shares outstanding
Steps 4 & 5:Subtract LT Debt and Divide by Shares Outstanding

Step 4: Subtract LT Debt

  • This step is not necessary as the firm is 100% equity

Step 5: Divide by Shares Outstanding

accounting rules vs economic reality
Accounting Rules vs. Economic Reality
  • WAG only owns approximately 18% of it’s store base. What about the other 82%?
    • They are leased. These leases are structured/accounted for as operating leases.
    • This means that although these leases (and other minor off-balance sheet obligations) carry significant future commitments ($26.078 billion), these commitments are not counted as liabilities on the firm’s balance sheet.
  • So are these commitments LT debt?
    • Liabilities:

“probable future sacrifices of economic benefits arising from present obligations of a particular entity to transfer assets or provide services in the future as a result of past transactions or events” [FASB Concept Statement 6, paragraph 5]

    • Answer:YES! These are (economic) liabilities!
accounting for significant off balance sheet liabilities
Accounting for Significant Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities
  • The most precise method of accounting for these operating leases would be to back the costs of rent out of “Selling, Operating, and Administrative Expenses” (SO&A) and restate the firm’s financials as if they owned the stores
    • This would entail separating interest expense, depreciation, and amortization
    • In addition to restating the firm’s financials, the analyst would need to calculate a new WACC, estimating a weight and cost of debt
  • Unfortunately, the firm does not provide nearly this level of information so we must pursue other, less precise methods
adjusting roe an ad hoc solution
Adjusting ROE: An ad hoc solution
  • Although academic theory holds that a firm’s value is not affected by it’s capital structure1, this is not the case in reality
    • Modigliani and Miller’s theory does not account for, among other things, taxes or the increasing marginal barrowing rates associated with increasing leverage
  • Therefore, investors should demand a return in excess of the ke-derived WACC we used earlier to compensate them for the risk associated with WAG’s quasi-leverage

1. For more information, see: The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment.F Modigliani, MH Miller . The American Economic Review. 1958. American Economic Association

capm roe and everything in between
CAPM, ROE, and Everything In-Between
  • Below we have 2 measures of ke: CAPM, and ROE
capm roe and everything in between1
CAPM, ROE, and Everything In-Between

Below is a matrix listing possible combinations of WACC and LT Growth and the corresponding stock prices

importance of roe sensitivity
Importance of ROE Sensitivity
  • The stock’s current price of approximately $49.00 is supported only when assuming unrealistically high LT Growth or an unrealistically low WACC (i.e. CAPM ke or below).
  • Due to the risk associated with the firm’s LT (economic) debt, I do not feel CAPM WACC is an appropriate measure and thus WACC must be adjusted upward to account for this risk.
  • THESE TWO FACTORS PRODUCE SIGNFICANT DOWNSIDE RISK FOR THE STOCK PRICE
recommendation
Recommendation
  • I recommend that 50% or 500 shares of WAG be sold at the market
  • I feel WAG is currently trading at a significantly inflated price that, in the long term, cannot be sustained
  • Why not sell it all?
      • WAG currently has considerable momentum, having beaten analyst EPS estimates for 3 consecutive quarters. Retaining some portion of the stock exposes us to the potential upside of continued momentum
      • Walgreen has always traded at a “premium” price and thus, we cannot know if, when, and to what degree these premiums will evaporate
negating scenarios
Negating Scenarios
  • WAG posts a Q4 that beats analyst consensus
    • Although I feel such a scenario is unlikely due to both heightened expectations and the firm’s Q1-Q3 margins, such an accomplishment would no doubt propel stock price in the short-term
  • CVS posts poor results and/or fails in new initiatives
    • As WAG’s main (and only real) competitor, a CVS failure will allow WAG to increase pricing power and will decrease pressure to expand
  • WAG makes a key unexpected acquisition into a business line in which CVS does not operate
    • With competition within the drug store industry becoming increasingly competitive, any opportunity for a player to enter a profitable business area in which the other does not operate will give the firm a first mover advantage, as well as pricing power not available in the duopoly environment.
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