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THE TRANSCAUCASUS, TURKEY, & IRAN. PS 555. ADMINISTRATIVE. We’ll stop early so you can evaluate me and the course Please take it seriously What did you like? Readings, assignments, discussion, web, powerpoint What would improve the course? Seniors see me if you have questions

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THE TRANSCAUCASUS, TURKEY, & IRAN

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The transcaucasus turkey iran l.jpg

THE TRANSCAUCASUS,TURKEY, & IRAN

PS 555


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ADMINISTRATIVE

  • We’ll stop early so you can evaluate me and the course

    • Please take it seriously

      • What did you like?

        • Readings, assignments, discussion, web, powerpoint

      • What would improve the course?

  • Seniors see me if you have questions

  • Read Odom and Dujarric

    • CIS chapter has a lot about each conflict


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NEWS


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TRANSCAUCASUS

Discuss culture, general themes, situation


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TURKEY

  • Looks both East and West

  • Decline of Ottoman Empire

  • WWI and the Ataturk

  • Modernization & Westernization

  • The Effects of the Cold War

  • Strategic Location?


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POST-COLD WAR

  • From a Northern Monolithic Enemy...

  • To Destitute and Fragile Proto-states

  • Decline in Turkey’s Status in the West

  • Turkey Still Linked with West

    • Economic Links

    • Security Links

    • Social Links (among elite)

  • So Why Worry about the Transcaucasus?


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TURKEY AND THE TRANSCAUCASUS

  • Turkish Involvement Until 1920s

    • Byzantium and Ottoman Empire

    • Cultural Ties up to Revolution

    • Soviet Rule a Mixed Blessing

  • Two Stages Since Soviet Collapse:

    • Establishing Ties (Especially with Az.)

    • Loss of Influence to Russia

  • Nature of Historical Ties?


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TURKEY & GEORGIA

  • Georgia Needed Turkey for Balance

  • Despite Possibilities for Conflict...

    • Religion

    • Territorial Claims (Both Ways)

    • Turkish Affinity for Abkhaz (Coethnic Turks)

    • Turkish Affinity for Ajars

  • What Could Have Happened?

  • What Could Happen?


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TURKEY & AZERBAIJAN

  • Azerbaijanis ARE Turkish, BUT

    • Turks are Sunni

    • Azerbaijanis are Shia (Persian Influence)

    • Soviet Rule Separated the Cultures Some

  • During WWI & Revolution

    • Ottoman “Army of Islam” fought for Azeris

    • But Soon Turned Attention Elsewhere…

  • Close Contact after Breakup

    • President Elchibey Favored Turkish Model

    • Business and Educational Exchanges


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TURKEY & AZERBAIJAN

  • Aliyev deposed Elchibey

    • Closer Ties with Russia and Iran

    • Decline in Turkish Influence

  • Barriers to Closer Ties

    • Aliyev

    • Geography

      • Nakhichevan

      • Georgia

      • Armenia

  • What Could Have Happened?

  • What Could Happen?


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TURKEY & ARMENIA

  • Problematic

    • Religion

    • 1915 Massacre of Armenians

      • Act of War vs. Genocide

  • Armenian Collusion with PKK

  • Azeri-Armenian War: Tough Choice

  • What Could Have Happened?

  • Any Chance for Improved Relations?


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TURKEY & RUSSIA

  • Pipeline Politics

  • Russia may have helped overthrow Elchibey

  • Russian Fears of Turkish Nationalism

  • Russian Influence Still a Mixed Blessing

  • What Could Happen Between Them?

  • What Could Bring Turkey In?


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IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY

  • Rejection of Western Model, Embrace of Islam as the Guide to Policy

  • But Increasingly Pragmatic, Nationalist

  • In Transcausacus:

    • Position of Weakness

    • Prefers Russian Control over Turks or Azeri Nationalism

  • Policy: Eschew Entanglements


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A LITTLE HISTORY

  • Decline of Persia

    • Between British and Russian Empires

  • Restoration of Independence in 1921

  • Wrong Side in WWII

    • British Control of Oil

    • USSR to the North

  • US to Counter UK and USSR

  • Worked Until the Revolution


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THE NEW IRAN

  • Anti-Western/US

  • Challenge Neighbors

  • Terrorism as a Tool

  • Only Shia Nation-State

  • Still Nationalistic

  • No Immediate Threats

  • Weak, but Still a Power

    • Pipeline?


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IRAN AND T-C

  • Persia was a Power in T-C

  • Religious Ties with Azerbaijan (& GG)

  • Excluded During Soviet Rule

  • Azerbaijan Important Now

    • Ethnic Ties

    • Link to CIS Transport Grid

  • But…

    • Azeri’s More Secular

    • Azerbaijan Has Its Own Oil

  • Better Under Aliyev


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IRAN, T-C, & RUSSIA

  • Russia Wants Good Relations with Iran

  • But Wants It Out of Near-Abroad

  • Russian Control “Second Best” for Iran

  • The Kurdish Problem

    • Armenia and Iran have Supported the PPK

  • What Could Happen?


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CONFLICTS IN THE

TRANSCAUCASUS

TRANSCAUCASUS


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THREE MAJOR CONFLICTS

  • SOUTH OSSETIA

  • ABKHAZIA

  • NAGORNO-KARABAKH


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SOUTH OSSETIA

  • 1989-1992: rise of nationalism and the minority (and Russian) reaction. Elite warlords vs. Gamsakhurdia

  • Russian Influence?


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ABKHAZIA

  • 1991-(Sept 1993)

  • 100k(Ru + G + Ab)

  • Mixed in with power struggle

  • Russia’s Role

    • Co’s hated Schev.

    • Supported rebels?

    • Supported Gamsukhardia

    • Brought in to keep peace

    • 1994 G joined CIS

  • International Forces

  • Turkey?

  • Iran?


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NAGORNO-KARABAKH

  • 1988- ?

  • Part of Az

    • But mostly Armenian

    • Wanted to secede

  • Russia

    • Why help Armenia?

    • N-K?

  • Armenia’s advantages

  • Azeri Hope…


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THE NEW GREAT GAME


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EVALUATIONS


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