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General Lecture 1. Modeling and Sustainability PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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CE5504 Surface Water Quality Modeling. General Lecture 1. Modeling and Sustainability. Sustainability.  In our every deliberation we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations. Iroquois Confederacy.

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General Lecture 1. Modeling and Sustainability

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CE5504 Surface Water Quality Modeling

General Lecture 1. Modeling and Sustainability


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Sustainability

 In our every deliberation we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations.

Iroquois Confederacy

Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987

http://www.interspecies.com/pages/7th_gen.html

http://www.bathtram.org/tfb/tE04.htm


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Modeling

…a mathematical model is an idealized formulation that represents the response of a physical system to external stimuli.

Chapra 1997, p. 10


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Toward Sustainability

Decisions supporting a sustainable future require:

1) a knowledge of the way a system works.

We might think of this as a research model.

2) a manner of predicting cause and effect.

We might think of this as a management model.


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Understanding the System

The Blind Men and the Elephant

John Godfrey Saxe, 1816-1887

http://www.wordinfo.info/words/index/info/view_unit/1/?letter=B&spage=3


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To Better See the Elephant …

The Third approached the animal,

And happening to take

The squirming trunk within his hands,

Thus boldly up and spake:

“I see,” quoth he, “the Elephant

Is very like a snake!”

And so these men of Indostan

Disputed loud and long,

Each in his own opinion

Exceeding stiff and strong,

Though each was partly in the right,

And all were in the wrong!

The Sixth no sooner had begun

About the beast to grope,

Than, seizing on the swinging tail

That fell within his scope,

“I see,” quoth he, “the Elephant

Is very like a rope!”

So oft in theologic wars,

The disputants, I ween,

Rail on in utter ignorance

Of what each other mean,

And prate about an Elephant

Not one of them has seen!

The Fourth reached out an eager hand,

And felt about the knee.

“What most this wondrous beast is like

Is mighty plain,” quoth he;

“ ‘Tis clear enough the Elephant

Is very like a tree!”

It was six men of Indostan

To learning much inclined,

Who went to see the Elephant

(Though all of them were blind),

That each by observation

Might satisfy his mind

The Fifth, who chanced to touch the ear,

Said: “E’en the blindest man

Can tell what this resembles most;

Deny the fact who can

This marvel of an Elephant

Is very like a fan!”

The First approached the Elephant,

And happening to fall

Against his broad and sturdy side,

At once began to bawl:

“God bless me! but the Elephant

Is very like a wall!”

The Second, feeling of the tusk,

Cried, “Ho! what have we here

So very round and smooth and sharp?

To me ’tis mighty clear

This wonder of an Elephant

Is very like a spear!”


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Research Models

To provide a better understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that give rise to various types of water quality behavior, such understanding to be sharpened by the formulation and testing of hypotheses of the cause-effect relationships between residual inputs and resulting water quality.

(Thomann and Mueller 1987)


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To Validate our Understanding of System Response

Mathematical

Model

Process

Studies

Field

Observations

Conceptual

Framework

Why model? The research perspective –


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Predicting Cause and Effect


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Cause & Effect: firing a projectile

by Trial and Error


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Cause and Effect: achieving sustainability

by Build and Measure


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Undesirable Outcomes

underdesign -

…the environmental engineering equivalent of building a bridge that falls down.

www.civil.columbia.edu/ce4210/bridgecollapse.html

(Thomann and Mueller 1987, p. ix)


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Undesirable Outcomes

overdesign -

…the environmental engineering equivalent of building a bridge to nowhere.

http://www.zen39641.zen.co.uk/ps/

(Thomann and Mueller 1987, p. ix)


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distance

angle

Cause and Effect: firing a projectile

by Applying a Model


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Cause and Effect: achieving sustainability

Linking …

Action and Reaction

Perturbation and Response

Cause and Effect

by Applying a Model


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Management Models

To provide a more rational basis for making water quality control decisions, such a basis to include a defensible, credible, predictive framework, within the larger framework of cost-benefit analysis.

(Thomann and Mueller 1987)


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Why model? The management perspective –


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Water and Wastewater in an Urban Setting

(Chapra 1997, Figure 1.1)

CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling


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The Water Quality Management Process

(Chapra 1997, Figure 1.2)

CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling


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Why model? Economics.

(Chapra 1997, Figure 1.7)

CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling


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A Water Quality Management Plan

  • Specify water use

  • Establish water quality criteria

  • Determine cause and effect

  • Identified engineered alternatives

  • Conduct cost-benefit analysis

  • Evaluate socioeconomic impact

CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling


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Opportunities

  • universities/institutes (UFI)

  • government (LLRS)

  • consulting (LTI)

Upstate Freshwater Institute

Syracuse, New York

Limno Tech, Inc.

Ann Arbor, Michigan

EPA Large Lakes Research Station

Grosse Ile, Michigan

CE5504 – Surface Water Quality Modeling


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