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Petcoke Prices – Do They Relate to Anything?

Petcoke Prices – Do They Relate to Anything?. Ben Ziesmer. McCloskey Group Petcoke Conference — 2008 Houston, TX June 10 & 11. Petroleum Coke Prices ($/MT fob Vessel, load port). Fuel Prices – Mediterranean Market. Fuel Prices – Mediterranean Market.

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Petcoke Prices – Do They Relate to Anything?

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  1. Petcoke Prices – Do They Relate to Anything? Ben Ziesmer McCloskey Group Petcoke Conference — 2008 Houston, TX June 10 & 11

  2. Petroleum Coke Prices($/MT fob Vessel, load port)

  3. Fuel Prices – Mediterranean Market

  4. Fuel Prices – Mediterranean Market

  5. USGC/Caribbean Market Petcoke vs.South African Steam Coal $/MMBtu CIF Mediterranean

  6. Petcoke Pricing –A New Paradigm? • Cement industry – from secondary fuel to preferred fuel • Many kilns use 100% petcoke • Ash in fuel becomes part of clinker • Supply certainty important • Coal supplier dependability concerns • Power industry – still secondary fuel • Must be lower cost on $/MMBtu basis

  7. Fuel Prices – Asia

  8. USWC Petroleum Coke vs.Australian Thermal (Steam) Coal $/MMBtu CIF Japan (USWC)

  9. Australian & South African Steam Coal

  10. USGC & USWC Petroleum Coke $/MMBtu CIF Mediterranean (USGC/Caribbean) or CIF Japan (USWC)

  11. Illinois Basin vs. South Africa Steam Coal

  12. Illinois Basin vs. South Africa Steam Coal

  13. Utah vs. Australian Steam Coal

  14. Petroleum Coke EUA Penalty vs.Burning Natural Gas

  15. Indifference Price of Petcoke vs. Natural Gas including EUA Cost

  16. U.S. Climate Change Legislation –Lieberman-Warner • Oil refineries – Have to acquire CO2 credits based on carbon in crude • Assumes all carbon in crude becomes CO2 • Refiners can allocate CO2 cost among products as they see fit • Coal – End user accounts for CO2 emissions • Generating stations & industrial plants need CO2 credits for emissions • No double counting → CO2 from burning petcoke should not count as CO2 emissions

  17. Lieberman-Warner & Petcoke • CO2 emissions ~3 tons/ton petcoke burned • How CO2 affects petcoke value • Internal U.S. – increases value • worth premium to coal as CO2 already counted • Exports • Developing countries – no effect • EU – should decrease value due to EUA cost • WTO – Potential problem if export price is lower than domestic price

  18. Summary • USGC petcoke prices are not directly correlated with South African coal prices • New pricing paradigm? • Neither <2% S nor >2% S petcoke prices are directly correlated with Aussie steam coal prices • Premium of <2% S over >2% S petcoke has varied • Steel industry primarily uses coking coal • Coking coal premium over steam coal   • Steel industry has been easing sulfur requirements

  19. Summary • U.S. coal prices not correlated with international coal prices • When international coal very high, U.S. coal can move into Atlantic Basin export market • CAIR scrubbers changing U.S. coal market • U.S. petcoke fueled project potentially exposed to international vs. domestic coal price risk • CO2 emission regulations can produce unexpected changes • EUA currently not high enough to push users from petcoke to natural gas

  20. Disclaimer Statement The presentations prepared by Jacobs Consultancy Inc., (“Jacobs”) for the PetcokeConference 2008, and the forecasts, estimates, opinions, analysis, evaluations, or recommendations contained therein are for the sole use and benefit of Conference attendees. Jacobs and its affiliates shall have no liability whatsoever to third parties for any defect, deficiency, error, or omission in any statement contained in or in any way related to the presentation. Neither Jacobs nor any person acting on Jacobs’ behalf makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any liability with respect to use of or reliance on any information, technology, engineering or methods disclosed or discussed in the presentation. Any forecasts, estimates, projections, opinions, or conclusions reached in the presentation are dependent upon numerous technical and economic conditions over which Jacobs has no control, and which may or may not occur. Reliance upon such opinions or conclusions by any person or entity is at the sole risk of the person relying thereon. The data, information and assumptions used to develop the presentation were obtained or derived from documents or information furnished by others. Jacobs did not independently verify or confirm such information and does not assume responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. Any forecasts, or cost or pricing estimates in the presentation are considered forward looking statements and represent Jacobs' current opinion and expectations of a likely outcome. They do not anticipate possible changes in governmental policies, governmental regulations, military action, embargoes or production cutbacks, regional conflicts or other events or factors that could cause forecasts or estimates to differ materially from what is contained in our forward-looking statements. The presentation is dated as of the date Jacobs completed its work. Jacobs has no obligation to update or revise the presentation or to revise any opinions, forecasts or assumptions because of events, circumstances or transactions occurring after the date of the presentation.

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