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Current Market Opinions and Trading Ideas Victor Adair Senior Vice President / Derivatives Portfolio Manager MF Global Canada Co . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Current Market Opinions and Trading Ideas Victor Adair Senior Vice President / Derivatives Portfolio Manager MF Global Canada Co . Vancouver Resource Investment Conference January 26, 2009 . Program Outline. Current Market Opinions How I Trade / Manage Risk Current Trading Ideas

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Current Market Opinions and Trading Ideas Victor Adair Senior Vice President / Derivatives Portfolio Manager MF Global Canada Co .

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Current Market Opinions and Trading IdeasVictor AdairSenior Vice President / Derivatives Portfolio ManagerMF Global Canada Co.

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference

January 26, 2009

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Program Outline

  • Current Market Opinions

  • How I Trade / Manage Risk

  • Current Trading Ideas

  • What I am Doing With My Own Money: Cautious. Savings. Trading. Income. In cash too early. No leverage. Wait for bargains. Risk is another BIG leg down in asset prices.


Disclaimer

  • This presentation is for information purposes only

  • Trading derivatives (futures, options, foreign exchange) involves risk of loss

  • Investments can go up as well as down and involve the risk of loss

  • Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future

  • MF Global Canada Co. is a member of the:

    • Investment Dealers Association

    • Canadian Investor Protection Fund

    • Toronto Stock Exchange

    • Montreal Exchange

    • Winnipeg Commodity Exchange


Macro Market Opinions

THEN:

Credit Boom = Asset Boom + High Risk Tolerance

  • Many years of low interest rates / easy money / rising asset prices fuelled a consumer spending boom and an attitude

  • Reaching for yield / don’t want to be left behind

  • Borrowers and Lenders - pushed the envelope on risk

  • NOW:

  • Lenders: less willing or able to lend

  • Borrowers: less willing or able to borrow

  • Risk being avoided – not embraced

  • BIG QUESTION:

  • What effect will the “Authorities’” actions have?


Macro Market Opinions

  • Asset price gains from 2001 to 2007 were extraordinary – not normal

  • Buy and hold is not good advice

  • Throw away your previous ideas about valuations and risk – this is a different world

  • Don’t buy something today because it is ½ price compared to what it used to be

  • Inflation is history – for now – deflation is the worry – for now

  • Inflation will come back

  • Be prepared for a lot more government in your lives

  • Stress = what’s the next shoe to drop? = Volatility

  • Something BIG will break…Euro? Country default?


Macro Market Opinions

  • Real estate prices will continue to soften

  • Unemployment will rise

  • Previous economic growth came from rising consumption based on rising asset prices, borrowed money and leverage. That’s over.

  • Expect a “L” shaped economy

  • Expect real interest rates to rise

  • Financial markets will have “relief rallies” but a weak real economy will keep a lid on gains

  • Demographics = Boomers will try to save more, spend less

  • China: the risks grow


Marco Market Opinions

  • Commodities: bull market is over until the last “Johnny-come-lately” bull throws in the towel and promises to never return. Speculators fuelled most of the 2002- 2008 price increase

  • Currencies: incredible barometers of capital flows – 40% declines - will the Euro hold – US$ wins the least ugly contest

  • Stocks: a slow-motion (and sometimes not-so-slow) crash

  • Bonds: great battle ahead…Supply Vs. Demand

  • Volatility: new highs as a result of stress = opportunity. Learn option writing strategies


Macro Market Opinions

  • Inflation / Deflation?

  • Credit crisis induced recession = deflationary

  • Monetary reaction = inflationary

  • Credit tightness = deflationary

  • Fiscal action = bigger budget deficits = inflationary

  • Rising unemployment = deflationary

  • Demographic trends in West = deflationary

  • Rising US$ = deflationary

  • Weakness in global economy = deflationary

  • Competitive currency devaluations = inflationary


Macro Market Opinions (Cont.)

  • We are all currency speculators now:

  • 6 years of US$ weakness = 6 years (2002-2008) of commodity gains

  • Currency trends overshoot + and make “V” shaped turns

  • Currency flows are now from risky to less risky – from the periphery to the center - as the market seeks to avoid risk

  • The US$ is the least ugly

  • Years of miss-matched currency assets / liabilities will be reversed

  • European banks with massive (and bad!) emerging market loans

  • Watch the “lesser” currency pairs


How I trade

  • I develop Global macro opinions

  • I may be100% in cash or up to 4x leverage

  • I read a lot of different research – www.VictorAdair.com – to form my opinions

  • I’m not a day trader but I watch the markets all day

  • Opinions – necessary (you have to have the courage of your convictions) and dangerous (you have to give up quickly when proven wrong)

  • I try to anticipate a trade before it is time to make the trade – then I’m ready when its time to pull the trigger

  • I need a technical confirmation that my opinion may be right before I execute


How I trade – (cont.)

  • I trade like a mercenary – (Dennis Gartman) when markets change I change

  • I challenge consensus – “what if” the popular idea is wrong, has run its course?

  • I try to judge the mass psychology – who has a weak / strong position in the market?

  • Changing psychology – not math – moves markets

  • All markets are spreads – try to think like a spread trader – what is X worth relative to Y?

  • Markets are inter-related – but relationships change

  • Options: Current I.V. relative to history - Use alone or in combination with futures


Managing Risk

  • I know practically nothing and cannot predict the future

  • Most likely risk: my opinion is wrong

  • Anything can happen

  • Patience – sitting in cash is OK

  • Add to winners, never add to losers

  • I know where I will get out (if I’m wrong) before I get in

  • Write down my reasons


Managing Risk – (cont.)

  • Max loss 1% – 2% per trade / use low leverage

  • Accept that most of my trades may lose money

  • No big losses, occasional big wins

  • Relationships between markets change, but markets always influence one another

  • Be aware of my prejudices – foundation of all opinions

  • Without risk management the road to the Poorhouse is paved with fine opinions

  • See: How To Be A Better Trader – www.VictorAdair.com


Options trading ideas

  • Option volatility is extremely high. Learn option selling (writing) strategies:

  • 1) you like a stock/commodity at today’s price. Write a put option on it, collect the premium. If you get put you own the stock/commodity at a better price, if you don’t get put you keep the premium. Repeat.

  • 2) you like a stock/commodity at today’s price. Buy it and write a call against it. if you don’t get called you own the stock/commodity at a better price, if you get called you make a short term profit. Repeat.

  • 3) Write both calls and puts at the same time – look for the market to trade sideways. Repeat.


Falling Interest Rates Helped Boost Asset Prices


Dow Jones Industrials Stock Index (Falling Interest Rates Helped Boost The Stock Market)


Average US Real Estate Prices (Falling Interest Rates Helped Boost Real Estate Prices)


US Dollar Index – not always a bear market!


Commodity Index: 6 years of a bear market in US$ = 6 years of a bull market in commodities – until Summer 2008!


Commodity Index Vs. US Dollar Index


Euro Currency Vs. US$ : A Major Turn?


US Dollar Index: Psychology was extremely negative


Euro Vs. Japanese Yen: Risk thermometer, week to week ups and downs very similar to ups and downs of G7 stock markets


New Zealand Dollar Vs. Japanese Yen: another risk thermometer


Canadian Dollar and Commodity Index


Gold / Crude Oil: At least a 25 year low this past summer: all markets are spreads. What is X worth in terms of Y?


Gold


Bonds


Copper: Does copper have a Phd in economics? Base metals have been weak (no kidding!!) lately (Speculators exit stage left??)


Crude Oil – Did “Investors” pile into the energy markets? Did rising global demand account for a tripling of prices in 18 months?


Corn: global demand for better food, ethanol, funds – prices hit all time high prices – what changed to cause prices to fall 50%?


Deere & Company: Another way for the public to play the Agricultural boom – Yikes!!


Potash Corp of Saskatchewan: WOW!!


Philly Bank Share Index: started to fall from all time highs before the “credit crisis” became front page news


Philly Housing Sector Index: The top was made well before the problems of the US housing market became front page news


Starbucks: Is the consumer cutting back on non-essentials? Duh!!


Harley-Davidson: Necessities not Accessories


Vix – CBOE Volatility Index Ultra-high option volatility creates new trading opportunities


Chicago Mercantile Exchange: it was a “triple play” on rising stocks, commodities and exchanges – what happened?


Summary

  • The Credit Boom produced an Asset Boom + a great Appetite for Risk – This fuelled a Global Economic Boom driven by Consumer Spending – the markets are now reversing this trade!

  • Big Risk – another major leg down in asset prices

  • How I trade / manage risks

  • Ultra-high option volatility creates opportunities to write options

  • Markets I am watching now – looking for trading opportunities

  • Be cautious – things have changed – wait for bargains

    www.VictorAdair.com


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