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World Energy Outlook 2007: Key Trends and Challenges. Centurelli Raffaella , International Chamber of Commerce , 21st October 2008. The World Energy Outlook. Annual publication by the Economic Analysis Division of the IEA World Energy Outlook Series: World Energy Outlook 2002

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World energy outlook 2007 key trends and challenges l.jpg

World Energy Outlook 2007:Key Trends and Challenges

Centurelli Raffaella,

International Chamber of Commerce,

21st October 2008


The world energy outlook l.jpg

The World Energy Outlook

  • Annual publication by the Economic Analysis Division of the IEA

  • World Energy Outlook Series:

  • World Energy Outlook 2002

  • World Energy Outlook 2003 Insights: World Energy Investment Outlook

  • World Energy Outlook 2004

  • World Energy Outlook 2005: Middle East & North Africa Insights

  • World Energy Outlook 2006

  • World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights

  • World Energy Outlook 2008

    (Launch in London 12th November)


Reference scenario l.jpg

Reference Scenario


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Other renewables

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Reference Scenario:World Primary Energy Demand

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

billion tonnes of oil equivalent

billion tonnes of oil equivalent

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

1980

1980

1990

1990

2000

2000

2010

2010

2020

2020

2030

2030

Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms


Reference scenario the emerging giants of world energy l.jpg

100%

Rest of the world

India

China

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Total

energy

Coal

Oil

Nuclear

Hydro

Power sector

investments

Reference Scenario: The Emerging Giants of World Energy

Increase in Primary Energy Demand & Investment Between 2005 & 2030 as Share of World Total

China & India will contribute more than 40% of the increase in global energy demand to 2030 on current trends


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120

Other developing countries

Middle East

100

India

China

80

Transition Economies

OECD

mb/d

60

40

20

0

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Reference Scenario:World Oil Demand

Oil demand increases most rapidly in China, India & other developing countries


The main driver for oil demand transport sector l.jpg

18

16

14

12

Overtake United States

10

million

8

6

Overtake Japan

4

Overtake Germany

2

0

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

The Main Driver for Oil Demand: Transport sector

New Light-Duty Vehicle Sales in China

China’s oil imports reach 13 mb/d in 2030

as car ownership jumps to 140 per 1 000 people from 20 today


Reference scenario primary coal demand by region l.jpg

Power generation

Other

4 000

TE

Other OECD

3 500

EU27

3 000

Japan

US

2 500

Other DC

Mtoe

2 000

India

China

1 500

1 000

500

0

2005

2030

2005

2030

Reference Scenario:Primary Coal Demand by Region

China & India account for 78% of the growth of coal use in power generation and 91% of the growth in other sectors


Reference scenario global energy related co 2 emissions l.jpg

50

42 Gt

45

40

+57%

tonnes

35

27 Gt

30

billion

25

20

15

10

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Reference Scenario:Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

Global emissions rise inexorably on current policies, driven mainly by China, India & other developing countries


Reference scenario china india in global co 2 emissions l.jpg

2006-2030

Reference Scenario: China & India in Global CO2 Emissions

Cumulative Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

United States

European Union

Japan

China

1900-2005

India

0

100

200

300

400

500

billion tonnes

Around 60% of the global increase in emissions in 2005-2030

comes from China & India


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7

Existing

New to 2015

6

New 2015-2030

5

Gt of CO2

4

3

2

1

0

2010

2006

2030

2050

2070

2090

Reference Scenario:The importance of time: CO2 Emissions from China's Coal-fired Power Plants

Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology

and largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond


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Alternative Policy Scenario


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Mapping an Alternative Energy Future

  • Reference Scenario trends are not set in stone

  • The Alternative Policy Scenario analyses impact of government policies under consideration

  • Responds to call to IEA from G8 & IEA ministers

    • To “advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future"

  • Macroeconomic, population & oil/gas price assumptions are as per the Reference Scenario


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Alternative Policy Scenario:Global Primary Fossil-Fuel Demand

2 500

2 500

Savings compared with the Reference Scenario

Alternative Policy Scenario

2 000

2 000

1 500

1 500

1 849

1 849

Mtce

Mtce

Mtoe

Mtoe

608

608

bcm

bcm

14.0 mb/d

14.0 mb/d

1 000

1 000

1 316

1 316

bcm

bcm

500

500

17.6 mb/d

17.6 mb/d

1 154

1 154

Mtce

Mtce

0

0

Coal

Coal

Oil

Oil

Gas

Gas

Coal demand falls most relative to the Reference Scenario,

but demand for each fossil fuel still increases through to 2030


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Alternative Policy Scenario:Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

50

45

42 Gt

Reference Scenario

40

19%

tonnes (Gt)

34 Gt

35

27 Gt

30

billion

Alternative Policy Scenario

25

20

15

10

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Global emissions grow less than half as fast as in the Reference Scenario, stabilising in the 2020s


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Implications for Global Climate

  • Reference Scenarios trends are consistent with dramatic climate effects

    • Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases would rise to 850 ppm of CO2-equivalent

    • Implies a rise in global average temperature of more than 4.9 ºC above pre-industrial levels

  • Increase in concentration & temperature is much less marked in the Alternative Policy Scenario

    • Concentration rises to 550 ppm & temperature by 3ºC

  • The most ambitious target:

    • Limiting the rise in Temperature to 2 ºC - concentration in the range of 445-490 ppm

    • The 450 Scenario investigated in WEO 08!


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Conclusions

  • Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path

  • China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size

  • Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system

  • New policies now under consideration would make a major contribution

  • Next 10 years are critical

    • The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid

    • Technology will be “locked-in” for decades

    • Growing tightness in oil & gas markets

  • Challenge is global so solutions must be global


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World Energy Outlook 2008


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World Energy Outlook 2008: Outline

  • New set of baseline projections to 2030

  • Demand, production & trade

  • Investment

  • CO2 & other GHG emissions

  • In-depth analysis of headline issues

  • Oil supply prospects

  • Post-2012 climate-policy scenarios

  • And also a special focus on

  • Energy poverty in resource-rich Sub-Saharan African countries

  • Energy use in cities


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Post-2012 climate-policy analysis:Analytical framework

  • Two climate-policy scenarios are considered

    • 550 Policy Scenario – greenhouse-gas concentration stabilised at 550 ppm CO2-eq, implying a temperature rise of c.3oC

    • 450 Policy Scenario – concentration stabilised at 450 ppm (c.2oC)

  • Both scenarios assume hybrid policy approach

    • Cap-and-trade

    • Sectoral agreements

    • National policies & measures

  • Three distinct country groupings: OECD, Other Major Economies, Other Countries.

  • Both scenarios call for a huge shift in investment, credible regulatory framework, global carbon market & big increase in energy R&D

  • Key IEA input to Poznan, G8 in Italy and Copenhagen


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Thank you

Raffaella.Centurelli@iea.orgwww.worldenergyoutlook.org


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