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Rob Freel NIO Statistics and Research Branch. Northern Ireland Crime Survey ESDS Crime Surveys User Meeting University of Manchester Monday 7 December 2009. Northern Ireland Crime Survey Overview. Overview Background, design and coverage Limitations compared with BCS Main outputs

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Rob Freel NIO Statistics and Research Branch

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Rob Freel

NIO Statistics and Research Branch

Northern Ireland

Crime Survey

ESDS Crime Surveys User Meeting

University of Manchester

Monday 7 December 2009


Northern Ireland Crime SurveyOverview

  • Overview

  • Background, design and coverage

  • Limitations compared with BCS

  • Main outputs

  • Experience of crime

  • Perceptions of crime

  • Confidence in policing and justice


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • What is the NICS?

  • A representative, continuous, personal interview survey of the experiences and perceptions of crime of some 4,000 adults living in private households throughout Northern Ireland.

  • Based largely on the BCS, with a few Scottish and local ingredients thrown in.


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • Frequency and sampling

  • Originally ad hoc basis - 1994/95, 1998, 2001 and 2003/04

  • Continuous basis since January 2005 (sample increased)

    • Enabling more regular / robust performance measurement (KPIs)

  • Simple random sample

    • Land and Property Services property database

    • Target 4,000 completed interviews annually


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • Fieldwork and datasets

  • Fieldwork conducted by NISRA interviewers

  • Face-to-face interview with one adult per household

  • CAPI for main interview; CASI for sensitive subjects

  • Main datasets analysed on a financial-year basis

  • KPIs updated on a quarterly, rolling 12-months basis


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • Experiences

  • 12-month recall period for victimisation

    • Personal crime (respondents)

    • Property crime (households)

  • Both prevalence and incidence rates

  • Estimated number of incidents

  • Crime reporting rates

  • Experience of illicit drugs

  • Experience of domestic and sexual violence


“He arrested two kids yesterday. One for drinking battery acid, the other was eating fireworks. He charged one and let the other off!”

Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Background, design and coverage

  • Perceptions

  • Crime levels and anti-social behaviour

  • ‘Fear of crime’

    • worry about crime and personal safety

    • risk of victimisation

    • quality of life

  • Confidence in policing and justice

  • Harm caused by organised crime

  • Night-time economy


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Limitations compared with BCS

  • Limitations compared with BCS

  • Smaller sample size - a tenth of the size of the BCS

  • Fewer topics – sample not large enough to split

  • Wider confidence intervals – low prevalence crimes, sub-sample analyses

  • Response rate – lower than BCS (different calculation methods used)

  • Fewer statisticians / no academic involvement

  • No archiving to date – but we’re still working on it!


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Main outputs

  • Main outputs

  • Two National Statistics outputs

    • ‘Experience of crime’

    • ‘Perceptions of crime’

  • Additional publications

    • ‘Experience of sexual violence and abuse’

    • ‘Experience of domestic violence’

    • ‘Experience of illicit drugs’

  • Informs policy development / key performance indicators

    • PSA targets

    • Domestic and sexual violence


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Experience of crime

Overall victimisation (prevalence) rates: Northern Ireland and England & Wales


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Experience of crime

Incidence rates per 10,000 adults / households:

NICS 2008/09 and BCS 2008/09


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Experience of crime

Level of crime in Northern Ireland: NICS v recorded crime


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Perceptions of crime

Changes in crime levels: NICS 2007/08 and BCS 2007/08

A. National levelB. Local area


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Perceptions of crime

Worry about crime: NICS 2007/08 and BCS 2007/08


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Perceptions of crime

Risk of victimisation: NICS 2007/08 and BCS 2007/08


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Confidence in policing: SR2004 & CSR07 NIO PSA Targets

  • The police provide an ordinary day-to-day service

  • The police do a very / fairly good job

  • The police treat Catholics and Protestants equally

  • The Policing Board is independent of the police

  • The Policing Board helps the police do a good job

  • The Police Ombudsman is independent of the police

  • The Police Ombudsmanhelps the police do a good job

  • COMPOSITE MEASURE

Police

Police accountability arrangements


SR 2004

CSR 2007

Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Overall confidence in the police and police accountability


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Confidence in local police: NICS 2007/08 and BCS 2007/08


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Community engagement (CSR07): NICS and BCS

*BCS overall confidence rating has been generated for comparability purposes only.


Northern Ireland Crime Survey

Confidence in policing and justice

Confidence in the CJS (CSR07): NICS and BCS


Rob Freel

NIO Statistics and Research Branch

Questions?

robert.freel@nio.x.gsi.gov.uk

www.nio.gov.uk/index/statistics-research/publications.htm


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