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Use of Systems Analysis to Assess Progress toward Goals and Technology Impacts Bill Gilbert NASA Langley Research Center November 15, 1999. Outline. Aerospace Systems, Concepts, and Analysis Competency Programs/Technology Contribution to Goals Aviation System Analysis Capability.

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Use of Systems Analysis

to Assess Progress toward Goals

and Technology Impacts

Bill Gilbert

NASA Langley Research Center

November 15, 1999


Outline l.jpg
Outline

  • Aerospace Systems, Concepts, and Analysis Competency

  • Programs/Technology Contribution to Goals

  • Aviation System Analysis Capability


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Atmospheric Sciences Competency Helps Assess

Aviation’s Impact on Environment

Emission Measurements

Assessment Modeling

Radiative effects of Contrails


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The Three Pillars for Success

(Aero-Space Technology Enterprise)


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Three Pillars Aero-Space Goals

NOISE

Reduce the perceived noise levels of future aircraft by a factor of two from today’s subsonic aircraft within 10 years, and by a factor of

four within 20 years.

SAFETY

Reduce the aircraft

accident rate by a factor of five within 10 years, and by a factor of 10 within 20 years.

EMISSIONS

Reduce emissions of

future aircraft by a factor

of three within 10 years,

and by a factor of five

within 20 years.

COST OF AIR TRAVEL

Reduce the cost of

air travel by 25% within

10 years, and by 50%

within 20 years.

CAPACITY

While maintaining

safety, triple the aviation

system throughput, in

all weather conditions,

within 10 years.

GENERAL AVIATION

Invigorate the general aviation industry, delivering 10,000 aircraft annually within 10 years, and 20,000 aircraft annually within 20 years.

SUPERSONIC TRAVEL

Reduce the travel time to the Far East and Europe by 50 percent within 20 years, and do so at today’s subsonicticket prices.

DESIGN & TEST

Provide next generation design tools and experimental aircraft to increase design confidence,and cut the development cycle time for aircraft in half.

SPACE ACCESS

Reduce the payload cost to low-Earth orbit by an order of magnitude, from $10,000 to $1,000 per pound, within 10 years, and by an additional order of magnitude within 25 years.

IN-SPACE TRANS.

Reduce the cost of interorbital transfer by an order of magnitude within 15 years, and reduce travel time for planetary missions by a factor of two within 15 years, and by an order of magnitude within 25 years.


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Mapping Programs and Technology Results into Goals

  • • Progress Towards the Aero-Space Enterprise Goals is Achieved by the

  • Combined Contributions of

  • -- Base Technology Research

  • -- Focused Program Technology Development

  • • Contributions of Focused Programs and Base Technologies are Crosscutting

  • Among the Goals

  • • Progress Towards the Goals May Be Achieved with Crosscutting

  • Technologies and Not Solely by Dedicated Program Elements

  • • System Analysis

  • -- Correlates Technologies with Goals

  • -- Analyzes Contribution of Correlated Technologies Towards Goals


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Enterprise Intercenter Systems Analysis Team

Glenn

Ames

Langley

Dryden

Marshall

Kennedy


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Assessment of OAT Programs

Technical Evaluation & Integration Team

  • Data Solicitation

  • Technology Oversight/Projections

  • Technology Roll-up

Spaceports/Operations Team

Airport/Airspace Team

  • Reference Airports/ATM Concepts

  • Enroute/Terminal Area Network

  • Capacity/Throughput/Delays

  • Noise Footprint/Community Impact

  • Airport Operations/Airline Costs

  • Airport/ATM Safety Model

  • Reference Spaceport Concepts

  • Servicing & Operations Models

  • Launch/Flight Safety Model

Design

Time

Cost

Space

Access

Noise

General

Aviation

In-Space

Trans.

Safety

Capacity

Commercial

Supersonic

Emissions

  • POC for Each Goal Impact

  • Assure Generation of Output from Other Teams

  • Oversee Subteam(s)

  • Consistent Goal Accounting and Data Format

Vehicle/Fleet Team

Program Objectives

  • Reference Vehicles

    • Subsonic transports

    • CTR/commuter/rotorcraft

    • HSCT

    • GA

    • Single Stage to Orbit

    • Two Stage to Orbit

  • Manufacturing & Market

  • Economics

  • Aircraft Emissions & Noise

SFC

Aero Design

Time

L/D

All Weather

Operations

Weight

MTBF

Labor Hours

Reference Vehicles

Reference Fleets

Reference Operations/Airports

Reference Air Traffic Mgmt System

Outcome Goals Teams


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Regional Turboprop

Payload 40 pax

Design Range 1000 nm

Econ Range 200 nm

Civil Tilt Rotor

Payload 40 pax

Design Range 600 nm

Econ Range 200 nm

General Aviation Jet

Payload 4 pax

Design Range 800 nm

Regional Jet

Payload 50 pax

Design Range 800 nm

Econ Range 400 nm

General Aviation Prop

Payload 4 pax

Design Range 800 nm

Intracontinental

Payload 150 pax

Design Range 3000 nm

Econ Range 1000 nm

Short-Range Twin

Payload 100 pax

Design Range 1500 nm

Econ Range 500 nm

Long-Range Quad

Payload 600 pax

Design Range 7500 nm

Econ Range 3500 nm

Long-Range Twin

Payload 300 pax

Design Range 7500 nm

Econ Range 3000 nm

High Speed Civil

Payload 300 pax

Design Range 5000 nm

Econ Range 3500 nm

Medium-Range Twin

Payload 225 pax

Design Range 6000 nm

Econ Range 2000 nm

BASELINE AIRCRAFT


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Notional Concept of a Safety Data Analysis Framework

Technologies/Interventions

  • Time Slice (2007, 2022)

  • Fleet projection

  • Accident projection

Option #1

Option #1

Option #1

Option #N

• • •

Accident Rates (Metrics)

Additional Metrics:

Fatal Accident Rates

Number of Fatalities

Number of Injuries


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Aviation Safety Goal Analysis

  • 34 Technology Datasheets considered in Safety Goal Analysis

  • -- 20 from Aviation Safety Program Office

  • -- 2 from Airframe Systems

  • -- 6 from Propulsion Systems

  • -- 1 from Advanced Subsonic Technologies

  • -- 5 from Aviation Operations Systems

  • Approximately 47 Different Causal Factor Impacts

  • Technology impacts to different aircraft classes analyzed separately (Transports, Commuters, GA, Rotorcraft)


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Aviation Safety Goal Analysis - Transport Aircraft (Part 121)

Goal

Approach

  • Reduce the aircraft accident rate by a factor of 5 within 10 years, and by a factor of 10 within 25 years.

  • U.S. only, 1990 to 1996, fatal & non-fatal accident NTSB data used to determine percentage of accidents/fatalities/injuries avoided due to technology implementation

  • U.S. fleet projections based on FAA and DOT forecasts

  • 100% overlap in accident coverage allowed due to multiple technologies impacting individual accidents; consistent with AvSP philosophy of increased reliability through redundant technology impacts

Metrics

  • Accident Rate (Fatal & Non-Fatal Combined)

  • Fatal Accident Rate

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Injuries


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Aviation Safety Goal Analysis - Commuter Aircraft (Part 135, sch. and non-sch.)

Goal

Approach

  • Reduce the aircraft accident rate by a factor of 5 within 10 years, and by a factor of 10 within 25 years.

  • U.S. only, 1990 to 1996, fatal & non-fatal accident NTSB data used to determine percentage of accidents/fatalities/injuries avoided due to technology implementation

  • U.S. fleet projections based on FAA and DOT forecasts

  • 100% overlap in accident coverage allowed due to multiple technologies impacting individual accidents; consistent with AvSP philosophy of increased reliability through redundant technology impacts

Metrics

  • Accident Rate (Fatal & Non-Fatal Combined)

  • Fatal Accident Rate

  • Number of Fatalities

  • Number of Injuries


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Summary of NASA Programs Projected Progress Toward the Goals (end of FY98)

10 Year Projections

100

75

GA

NOx

% Toward the Goal

50

25

CO2

non-GA

0

Safety

(w/out AvSP)

Emissions

Noise

Capacity

Affordability

Travel Time

General

Development

Aviation

Cycle

20 Year Projections

100

Time

75

NOx

% Toward the Goal

GA

50

CO2

25

non-GA

0

Safety

(w/out AvSP)

Emissions

Noise

Capacity

Affordability

General

Development

Surcharge

Aviation

Cycle

Travel Time


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http://www.asac.lmi.org (end of FY98)

  • Assess advanced aviation technology impacts on the integrated aviation system

    • Technical Progress and Value

    • Technology Cost Effectiveness

    • Technology Investment Portfolio


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Operators (end of FY98)

Airspace

Aircraft

Integrated

Aviation

System

Environment

Safety

ASAC Ties The Integrated Aviation System Together

Air Carrier Investment

Air Carrier Network Cost

Flight Segment Cost

Airline Cost/Benefit & Ops

Air Cargo Cost/Demand

DOT Databases

Airline

Functional Analysis

Airport Capacity

Airport Delay

Approximate Network Delay

AATT Decision Support Tools

Airport Databases

System

Aircraft Synthesis

(ACSYNT)

Flight Optimization System

(FLOPS)

Reference Aircraft Configurations

Integrated Noise Impact

System Safety Tolerance Analysis

3


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ASAC Data Flow (end of FY98)

Airport Capacity & Demand

Air Carrier Cost Functions

Route Structure

Efficient

Routes, Fleet

ATM

Demand

Characteristics

Costs

Constraints

Demand

  • Air Traffic Management & Regulation

  • ATC

  • Safety

  • Environment

FAA

Air Traffic Management

Aircraft & System Technologies

Aviation Industry


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Users of ASAC are Increasing Each Year (end of FY98)

  • User Organizations

    • 6 U.S. Government (e.g., NATO, Defense, U.S. Int’l Trade Commission, FAA)

    • 4 Operations (AA, NWA, UAL, USAirways)

    • 29 Manufacturing/Engineering (e.g., BAC, TRW, P&W, LM,ARINC, Cessna Textron, Draper)

    • 13 Academia (e.g., Johns Hopkins APL, Princeton, GaTech, Berkeley, MIT, Geo Mason)

    • 6 International (e.g., AirServices Australia, Eurocontrol)

11


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ASAC (end of FY98)Customers & Applications

  • American Airlines

    • Free Flight: Preserving Airline Opportunity, ‘97

  • United Airlines

    • B-727 Navigation Upgrade, ‘97

  • Pratt & Whitney

    • PW8000 Product Launch Decision Support, ‘97 - ‘98

  • Boeing

    • CNS Study Group, ‘98 - ‘99

  • Transportation Research Board

    • Economic Impacts of Air Traffic Congestion, ‘98

  • CNS/ATM Focused Team (CAFT)

    • TAP/AATT Study Results, ‘98

  • NASA

  • •Dallas-Ft. Worth CTAS Operations Safety Assessment, ‘98

    • Noise Impact Assessment for Environmental Program Planning, ‘99

    • TAP/AATT Technology Assessments, ‘98 - ‘99


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Summary (end of FY98)

  • The OAT ten technology goals were chosen to address aero-space industry technology needs

  • Validity of our technology assessments depends on fidelity of our aviation system models

    • We need your continued support in keeping the models relevant

  • As our customers and partners, we encourage you to interact with us and provide feedback on technology focus and analysis methods

    • Tour

    • Breakout sessions


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