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Overview Outline National Research Council Review. Description of StudyMajor Recommendations in ReportSpecific Recommendations for:Sampling DesignStatistical EstimationProgram Management and SupportCommunications and Outreach. National Research Council Review October 2004

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1. Overview of National Research Council Recommendations for Recreational Fisheries Surveys Dave Van Voorhees NMFS Fisheries Statistics Division RecFIN Technical Committee Member Russell Porter PSMFC, Chair of RecFIN Technical Committee

2. Overview Outline National Research Council Review Description of Study Major Recommendations in Report Specific Recommendations for: Sampling Design Statistical Estimation Program Management and Support Communications and Outreach

3. National Research Council Review October 2004 – April 2006 Review of current recreational fisheries survey methods supported by NOAA Fisheries Service Conducted by NRC Ocean Studies Board under contract established and funded by NOAA Fisheries Service Prospectus (Statement of Task) submitted in August 2004 Ten-member committee formed to conduct review Five meetings held in 2005: March 10-11: Washington, DC May 19-21: San Francisco, CA July 7-9: New Orleans, LA September 22-24: New York, NY October 26-28: Tampa, FL Report delivered in April 2006 Website: http://dels.nas.edu/osb/Rec_Fish.shtml

4. National Research Council ReviewGroups Represented at Public Meetings NOAA Fisheries Service: HQ NEFSC SWFSC Other Government Agencies: Fisheries and Oceans Canada U.S. Dept. Agriculture Councils: GMFMC MAFMC Commissions/Networks: PSMFC/Pacific RecFIN ASMFC/ACCSP GSMFC/Gulf FIN Academia Florida State University Cornell University Old Dominion University Private Sector Knowledge Networks Wostmann and Associates

5. National Research Council ReviewGroups Represented at Public Meetings State Agencies: New York DEC North Carolina DMF Oregon DFW Washington DFW California DFG Alaska DFG Texas PW Florida FWCC Louisiana DWF Maine DMR Constituents: American Sportfishing Assoc. Coastal Conservation Assoc. Recreational Fishing Alliance National Assoc. Charterboat Operators Golden Gate Fisherman’s Assoc. Jersey Coast Angler’s Assoc. Fishing Rights Alliance

6. National Research Council Review Statement of Task This study will critically review the types of survey methods used to estimate catch per unit effort and effort in recreational fisheries, including state/federal cooperative programs. The committee will examine representative survey types, but will not evaluate every regional or state survey method currently in use. The study will consider the match or mismatch between options for collecting recreational fisheries data and alternative approaches for managing recreational fisheries.

7. National Research Council Review Questions Addressed How suitable are current survey methods for monitoring different types of recreational fishing? Do current methods provide the statistical quality needed to support current spatiotemporal frames for management? How should frames of reference for management be limited by choice of survey method, stratification scheme, and/or sample sizes? How would the survey design need to be modified to match the requirements of the management approach? Are there alternative methods or changes to current methods that could improve the quality and utility of fishery statistics?

8. National Research Council Review Major Recommendations “This committee’s review has focused primarily on the MRFSS, but many of the component surveys of the MRFSS conducted by state agencies (with various degrees of federal funding) suffer from the same shortcomings as does the central MRFSS. As a result, many of this committee’s recommendations apply to state surveys as well as to the MRFSS.”

9. National Research Council Review Major Recommendations Set firm deadline linked to sufficient program funding to implement the Report’s recommendations. Re-design current survey programs to improve: sampling and estimation procedures, applicability to various kinds of management decisions, and usefulness for social and economic analyses. Provide ongoing technical evaluation and modification to meet emerging management needs. Achieve much greater degree of standardization among state and federal surveys. Treat For-Hire sector as “commercial” and establish mandatory requirements for timely reporting.

10. Sampling Design:Survey Frames Develop more complete, accurate, and efficient survey sampling frames Establish universal angler list frame for future telephone surveys Re-design/expand site/day list frames for on-site surveys conducted at access points to fishing Establish universal for-hire vessel list frames for mandatory reporting surveys

11. Sampling Design:Telephone Survey Frames Establish comprehensive, universal angler sampling frame with national coverage Compile through National registration and/or coordination of State saltwater licensing programs Must provide appropriate contact information Must include both state and federal waters anglers Should be restricted to anglers fishing in marine waters Must not allow exemptions Must be stored in automated, frequently updated database Base future telephone surveys of recreational fishing on this universal angler sampling frame

12. Sampling Design:Telephone Survey Frames If angler list frame not available, use random-digit-dialing household survey frame only viable option in states without a complete registration of marine recreational anglers less efficient than angler list frame approach greater potential for bias efficiency and possible biases may get worse as usage of cell phones and answering machines continue to increase

13. Sampling Design:Access-Point Survey Frames Re-design/expand site/day sampling frames Include all fishing sites and access points Include all different times of day Use consistent methods for estimating site/day fishing pressures and assigning selection probabilities for sampling Revise sampling protocols to assure: Random probability sampling of site/day units Appropriate on-site sampling of angler, or vessel trips Improve sampler adherence to protocols Improved sampler training More extensive/effective QC monitoring of samplers

14. Sampling Design:For-Hire Sector Treat For-Hire sector as a “commercial” sector Develop complete list frame of participating for-hire vessels Establish mandatory reporting requirements: Census effort and catch through vessel trip reports, or logbooks Must include all effort Must include both landed and released catches of fish Must be timely and verifiable Compliance must be adequately enforced Potential to collect more detailed trip information Verify self-reported data: Rigorous on-site sampling program to verify effort On-Site/At-Sea sampling surveys to verify catch Sampling surveys may be more appropriate where: For-Hire sector takes small component of catch Verification and enforcement are problematic

15. Sampling Design:Released Catch Data Conduct additional studies to improve verification and estimation of catch not brought to the dock, especially released catch On-Site surveys need to distinguish between: Fish kept/available for inspection (observed) Fish not available for inspection (unobserved) Need to independently verify unobserved, self-reported catches At-sea observations?

16. Sampling Design:Dual-Frame Surveys Dual-frame surveys should be used wherever possible to reduce sample bias. Example: dual-frame telephone surveys Incomplete list frame of licensed anglers (L) RDD frame of coastal households (H) Example: dual-frame vessel surveys List frame of federally permitted vessels (P) List frame of all known vessels (V) Example: dual-frame on-site/off-site surveys Incomplete list frame of fishing access points (AP) Complete list frame of licensed anglers (L) or RDD frame of coastal households (H)

17. Sampling Design:Panel and Internet Surveys Consider conduct of panel surveys Improving efficiency of data collection MRFSS Coastal Household Telephone Survey: Repeated contacts of known fishing households Gathering angler or vessel trend data Angler or vessel diary surveys? Catch and effort for private vs. public access trips? Catch and effort for daytime vs. nighttime trips? Consider use of internet surveys, especially in panel surveys

18. Statistical Estimation:Assumptions and Potential Biases Determine statistical properties of various sampling, data-collection, and data-analysis methods. Current designs, sampling strategies, and collection methods do not provide adequate information for management and policy decisions. Unknown biases in estimators arise from reliance on unverified assumptions. Examine and verify assumptions so that biases can be properly evaluated. Without evaluation of possible biases, the reliability of final estimates remains unknown.

19. Statistical Estimation:Assumptions about Non-Sampled Units Test assumptions used in expanding estimates over non-sampled segments of angling population Telephone surveys – are missed anglers different? MRFSS Coastal Household Survey: non-residents of coastal zone coastal zone residents without landline phones Angler License Directory Surveys: unlicensed anglers licensed anglers not providing contact information Access-Point intercept surveys – are missed trips different? Private access trips private docks, private shorelines, private locked marinas Nighttime trips Tournament trips

20. Statistical Estimation:Assumptions and Potential Biases Evaluate and verify assumptions so that potential biases can be evaluated. Examine possible errors of representation Frame coverage errors Non-response errors Respondent errors Interviewer errors Are random probability samples always obtained? Are selection probabilities of all sample frame units known? Do sample means differ among frame units with different probabilities of selection?

21. Statistical Estimation:Assumptions and Potential Biases Analyze potential biases within the current sampling and estimation designs wherever possible using existing data. Use selection probabilities in estimation process. Household telephone surveys – household probabilities Access-point intercept surveys – site/day probabilities Account for multi-stage cluster sampling designs Site/day clusters of angler, or vessel, trips Fishing vessel clusters of angler trips “Mixed Catch” clusters of angler trips Vessel and angler clusters of observed fish Include covariance terms where appropriate when estimating variances of aggregated estimates that are not independent Aggregations of estimates across modes, areas, or trip types

22. Cluster Sampling

23. Statistical Estimation:Sample Sizes, Stratification, and Timeliness Users want statistics at finer levels of spatial and temporal resolution. Increase precision at lower levels of resolution. Increase sample sizes Increase stratification Optimize sample allocations Increase timeliness of availability of survey data and statistics to better support timely fishery management decisions.

24. Program Management and Support:Survey Design and Execution Add expertise and personnel needed to continually evaluate and improve survey design and execution Increase expertise of existing staff through training Recruit new staff with appropriate expertise Hire consultants with appropriate expertise as needed Survey statisticians and managers must collaborate effectively with: Population scientists – to design data collection protocols and summary statistics that support population assessments Fishery managers – to design spatiotemporal sampling and estimation schemes that match management frames

25. Program Management and Support:Statistical Support Form research group of statisticians to design new analyses based on developments in sampling theory Include experimentation Surveys of nighttime fishing and private access fishing? Explore possible use of model-based or model-assisted “survey regression estimators” Possible use of business-related or weather-related covariates? Explore possible use of “small domain” estimation methods that employ indirect “synthetic” or “composite” estimators. May be possible to “borrow strength from entire sample” to fit regression model relating response variable to covariates and predicting all elements in a given “small domain”.

26. Program Management and Support:Evaluation, Modification, and Coordination Establish ongoing technical evaluation and modification to meet emerging management needs Providing fluid, continuous review and feedback Invest significantly in intellectual/technical expertise Establish and fund Independent Research Group (IRG)? Continuously evaluate statistical design/adequacy of surveys Guide necessary modifications or new initiatives Improve Federal/State coordination to gain National perspective on marine recreational fisheries Fund separate Survey Office? Manage and implement surveys Coordinate state and federal survey efforts

27. Communications and Outreach Improve communications, outreach, and education Advise, inform, and educate: Advise on constraints for various possible uses of statistics Inform about any limitations of raw data or estimated statistics Educate about sampling designs and data collection processes Institutionalize outreach and communication Establish as part of an ongoing program Develop appropriate communications expertise Engage angler associations as partners Involve them in workshops, data collection, and survey design Encourage participation in survey advisory groups.

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