Random thoughts on uncertainty for ecological modeling
Download
1 / 7

Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling By Jay M. Ver Hoef National Marine Mammal Lab 7600 Sand Point Way, NE Seattle, WA 98115 jay.verhoef@noaa.gov Model Averaging Change of Support Model Selection Which one would AIC choose? How Do We Use Probability?

Related searches for Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha

Download Presentation

Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Random Thoughts on Uncertainty for Ecological Modeling

By

Jay M. Ver Hoef

National Marine Mammal Lab

7600 Sand Point Way, NE

Seattle, WA 98115

jay.verhoef@noaa.gov


Model Averaging


Change of Support


Model Selection

Which one would AIC choose?


How Do We Use Probability?


Are Models Correct?

y

x

“All models are wrong. We make tentative assumptions about the real world which we know are false but which we believe may be useful.”- George Box 1976


Conclusions

  • Do not quench your inspiration and your imagination; do not become the slave of your model. Vincent van Gogh

  • A good model can advance fashion by ten years. Yves Saint Laurent

  • When I model I pretty much go blank. You can't think too much or it doesn't work.

  • Paulina Porizkova

  • A theory has only the alternative of being right or wrong. A model has a third possibility: it may be right, but irrelevant.

  • Manfred Eigen


ad
  • Login